Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[swainclubber]

1 minute ago, TheBeastFromTheEAST said:

Im no expert but to me this is looking like a small upgrade earlier  on. 

Am I missing something. That's the 12z No?

[MattStoke]

Failing to see how this is better with the cold air shunted away quicker and a larger warm sector to the low.

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, TheBeastFromTheEAST said:

Im no expert but to me this is looking like a small upgrade earlier  on. 

Oops!

Edited December 5, 2017 by Ed Stone

[tight isobar]

18z...making light work of mixing out cold upper air-850s....

Deff-wet-not white with the first slider' incoming on the 18z....

Away from northern-most evlevation!!

[A.J]

2 hours ago, weirpig said:

To honest m w b. Any precipitation charts at this distance are less than reliable 

some need to remember the following equation.......... 

GFS + Precip Charts + T>24 = (Chocolate fireguard + t*ts on fish)

[steveinsussex]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Is this more of a northerly? Or is it just wishful thinking?

Ignore me  

 

you already corrected 

Edited December 5, 2017 by steveinsussex

[Rocheydub]

Hence one of the biggest issues with this thread. 

[Dean E]

From previous experience when the GFS or any model for that matter looks like this beyond 120hr, then its either found something (a new trend for example) or its having a wobble.

Messy at this point

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

some need to remember the following equation.......... 

GFS + Precip Charts + T>24 = (Chocolate fireguard + t*ts on fish)

The bigger picture is evaluating quicker conversion..from good overheads to quick, mixing out...-850s.

And its becoming a prominent feature...

Ecm-now gfs grabbing the signal(first slider)...

So its more than worth a mention...

But as again could change...going on.

Edited December 5, 2017 by tight isobar

[northwestsnow]

Dew points by thur midnight - thats one box ticked..

[snowray]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

I am beginning to think higher parts of Oldham are going to see serious drifting snow by this time next week

certainly think EC is better than the 0z run, the PMm flow is relentless!!

[nick sussex]

The GFS had a better start near Iceland with better heights there, slightly let down by a bit too flat upstream later but this won't get sorted out for a few days.

Very complicated and rather messy set up but the chance remains for that to deliver some snow.

 

[ArHu3]

5 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

some need to remember the following equation.......... 

GFS + Precip Charts + T>24 = (Chocolate fireguard + t*ts on fish)

For stuff like that harmony is very good but it isn't available (yet) for the uk, hirlam, arome, icon and wrf are other options 

[gottolovethisweather]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Dew points by thur midnight - thats one box ticked..

Precisely why I think a fair few will wake up to lying snow come Friday morning as stated earlier, the current Fax charts back this up. Still plenty of time for things to go either way but I'm hopeful, and not necessarily speaking IMBY here, either.  

Edited December 5, 2017 by gottolovethisweather

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS had a better start near Iceland with better heights there, slightly let down by a bit too flat upstream later but this won't get sorted out for a few days.

Very complicated and rather messy set up but the chance remains for that to deliver some snow.

 

Thats the issue nick.

Its a complex situation as-ever for us...

But the initial slider scenario is coming apart brick...by brick if notable is your favour!....

But could..and most likely will revert..

And show yet another exaction..with pin-point local exactions...

Thats the beauty of it all!!!

But a signal is emerging for much more marginality atm!!!

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Precisely why I think a fair few will wake up to lying snow come Friday morning as stated earlier, the current Fax charts back this up. 

Yeah I wouldn’t rule out anywhere waking up to a covering through to Saturday morning. 

[shaky]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS had a better start near Iceland with better heights there, slightly let down by a bit too flat upstream later but this won't get sorted out for a few days.

Very complicated and rather messy set up but the chance remains for that to deliver some snow.

 

Was gona say nick it was much better earlier but folded after that lol!!hopefully we can build on it in the morning!!

[weirpig]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Yeah I wouldn’t rule out anywhere waking up to a covering through to Saturday morning. 

Cold front straddling middle England  moving south. Mmm 

[markw2680]

By this time tomorrow I’m pretty sure the current position would of changed to what it shows now, I have a hunch it will correct south west that’s just going by previous times nothing professional there just a feeling. I just think next week will be very interesting but not before the end of this weeks cold blast

[MattStoke]

7 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Precisely why I think a fair few will wake up to lying snow come Friday morning as stated earlier, the current Fax charts back this up. Still plenty of time for things to go either way but I'm hopeful, and not necessarily speaking IMBY here, either.  

The very cold uppers don't arrive until after those fronts have cleared though.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Cold front straddling middle England  moving south. Mmm 

It's downgraded to a trough on the latest FAX for that timescale 

what are the odds that the T120 will be late out tonight !

[Day 10]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS had a better start near Iceland with better heights there, slightly let down by a bit too flat upstream later but this won't get sorted out for a few days.

Very complicated and rather messy set up but the chance remains for that to deliver some snow.

 

 

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Was gona say nick it was much better earlier but folded after that lol!!hopefully we can build on it in the morning!!

Yes FI around t96, no point going much further really until the slider is sorted. Get's a bit messy medium term.

 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It's downgraded to a trough on the latest FAX for that timescale 

what are the odds that the T120 will be late out tonight !

Haha- yes i wouldn't want to be on duty tonight!!

[northwestsnow]

Unfortunately it doesn't look like the south are going to see much in the way of snow over the coming week or so- PM flow really is of genuine benefit for northern Britain..

That could change tho depending on the track of the Atlantic- still think it will get corrected south but time is ticking on now!

into the medium term and still we are struggling to see enough amplification for cut off highs ..

Edited December 5, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Snowy L]

Dont be so sure of corrections further south. Last week we all thought Thursdays low would be corrected south, but its actually been corrected North and by quite a distance too.