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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

ECH1-120.gifpv= jelly in the microwave...wave being the by word.

And is also uncomfortably shunted 

Shes desperate..and in need of rehab!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Here we go, the big three at T144, UKMO, GFS, and ECM. Take your pick....☺️

UE144-21.gif

gfseu-0-144.png

 

ECE1-144.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
7 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

GFS definitely making more of that low than the other two, crucial frames coming up..... nerves jangling for 144

Yup, ECM rock solid! Should be a lovely run from here.:oldrolleyes:

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Open door ..incoming easterly!!!

ECH1-120.gif

Screenshot_2018-12-04-18-29-25.png

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
54 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM is rubish, not much of a cold spell at all, don’t know why it’s being referred to as a ‘battleground’ 

44982005-08A5-423F-A62B-E7CAB8CEBCC4.png

DDB099CB-D62B-4C83-BFF3-03046DAD3096.png

It has a known bias involving uppers. Always makes them much warmer than they actually are, however yor point still stands somewhat as even then they would be between -4 and -6.

Still looking for some kind of trough dropping SE of the high containing the goods but that's far out in la la land.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

T168 and we're good to go!

image.thumb.jpg.4a2ac2e5403b08650f1a66c8278ec9f8.jpg

Got to think there is a reasonable chance of ECM being close to the mark at T168, though by no means certain.  Really good run, though.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Also

ECM1-168.GIF?04-0

Amazing

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and again i always rely on ecm in summer but both ecm n gfs in winter. 

144/168 look spot on. comon folks!

a worry though when ukmo does that however ukmo 144 ALWAYS changes!! everyday!! it seems very rekiable upto 120 only! 

what did gfs para show guys?!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
16 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Hi Blue, I had earmarked this date due to always seeing the `Moyenne Des Scenarios` graph where for probably a week there was consistency prior to sheer scatter. The 9th also held big interest as this was where the Atlantic ridge was or wasn`t going to a: happen or b: going to go north and not NE over us.

Without being too FI, this was my next goalpost.

If you are siding with the ECM, I`ll quite happily go with your knowledge matey.

understand that but surely as time ticks down and the models come into relative agreement at day 5, you should adjust your date out another day ?? 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

If the easterly does fail to materialise, it's interesting to note that JMA has not wanted to know at any point.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

understand that but surely as time ticks down and the models come into relative agreement at day 5, you should adjust your date out another day ?? 

Yeah another day is neither here nor there I suppose but if you keep pushing days, you will never get there?

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

KaBOOM-CHA..

Although ec..mixing out the 850s..

Via the wrap...and not at-amplification...classic!!!

ECM1-192 (1).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
On 20/11/2018 at 18:04, Roger J Smith said:

 

Trying to delete above. Alas, been away from model watching for 10 days, and have come back to some cold synoptical charts. At the 144 hr range, we have much commonality between ECM, GFS and UKMO. All showing an amplified flow, allowing a surge of heights through the eastern atlantic behind a long fetch northerly flow. In the reliable a very mixed outlook, becoming very mild again in the south with further rain or showers for all, stormy on Friday, colder by Saturday with wintry showers in the north, with showers increasingly turning to snow for most on Sunday especially in the north - in a biting wind. Swings and roundabouts.

What happens beyond 144 hrs remains uncertain, however, both ECM and GFS are going for an easterly with an undercutting low pressure scenario later next week, cold surface continental air, and trough disruption would be conducive to heavy snow where the trough settles I would think, especially in the north.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

i do like a mid December sausage me …………….. always good in the run up to xmas ………………...

I'd be so happy if EC comes off..

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
3 hours ago, Catacol said:

Hmm - not quite the message of my post to be honest. However I agree that a split is better than a displacement, and I did go on to state that I dont think a disconnected displacement event is where we may be headed this year!

That's why I linked to your post directly, so to read your words but if one thing model watching has learned me is to ge cautious and hedge against bets that look like sure and easy wins but could wind up very badly if you lose. 

I also learned that no matter how much we discuss or whatever any model says, it doesn't matter, we don't change anything, earth does what it does (I'm not going to argue, we'll see what we get) 

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