Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[E17boy]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

3 members viewing the thread says it all.

Its difficult to post anything that doesn't fall into the moan category.

The clusters suggest there will be some kind of attempt at a seceuro but until the flat and rampant jet slows down there is next to zero hope of a high lat block gaining traction.

The wait goes on.

Exactly northwestsnow this has been one of the things I touched on in my post earlier. There is so much energy to the north of us we are getting low pressure after low pressure and there just doesn't seem to be a gap to allow any high pressure to build. Also the lack of low pressure to our south and south east is not helping either. All the blocks have to fall in place for us to be winners. Sadly I can't see any slow down of the Atlantic in the next 5 day period it's quite the opposite getting more stronger. Whether this will give some space as we move further into January who knows but can't see anything just yet to put my head up or mood unfortunately. 

Regards

[SqueakheartLW]

25 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi peeps

Dear oh dear just had a read on Gavs January outlook and a sneak preview on February. It's best if you don't look at it although that far ahead is just for fun anything past 5 or six days is gospel but just a general trend outlook. Anyway looks as if this pattern is going to continue although after mid January it may be that high pressure gives us some frosts. Just the slightest chance high may drift to Scandinavia, however the chance of it staying there are slim as low pressure pressure to our north will flatten it.

Just to add salt to the wounds sneak preview into February shows  no sign at the moment of a pattern change continuation of south westerlies and rain.

Whether the above will pan out we shall see but it does not make exciting reading

Well I just say bin this winter and roll on 2020/2021. At least it should be the one just after solar minimum with EQBO as well. So far Gavs winter forecast isn't going very well.

Gav went for a slightly colder than average December - Actually ended up around 1C above average

Gav said January would probably be mildest month of the winter but around average - So far not looking good

Gav said February would be coldest month - We shall see

In order to get to his prediction of a slightly colder than average winter overall we are going to need some brutal cold in February or it will end a long way out

Edited January 4, 2020 by SqueakheartLW

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Erdem said:

I think battleground snow would be unlikely because we have such a warm continent - south easterlies would not be cold enough ? 

I'm thinking several days down the line. Without Atlantic input, the continent will go cold in 4/5 days. Entirely hypothetical for now but possible. 

[nick sussex]

More horror output from the GFS so far . It might look it’s trying to introduce some cooler air for a time  with the low heights pushed quite far south but this is a model bias at this range . With a strong PV and high to the south the jet gets shunted further north as the timeframe ticks down .

Dreadful stuff . Would the last cold and snow lover to leave UK please switch off the lights !

 

[IDO]

Certainly a cooler run than this morning's 0z for the FI charts:

So cold rain at times for most. Really as per winter so far, feeding of cold scrapings.

We see why there are anomalous heights in Scandi, the flow of HP cells from west to east on a relatively flat NH profile creates an impression of "potential". But with that tPV tightly wound due to the Russian High, Pacific High and Atlantic highs ATM getting those to push north without forcing looks unlikely.

What looks like Scandi heights is just the latest HP cell passing through the mid-latitudes of Europe and offers little in the way of help for cold for the UK:

As we expect from GEM, a further downgrade towards the flatter GFS:

0z12z>

It is bad at handling height rises and we see it for the umpteenth time.

Pretty consistent from the GFS op so no reason to doubt it especially with background signals muted.

[legritter]

Mega horror show from the gfs .gives us a nasty low next thursday (thank you )and another in 10days  ,then mush  when will this end , I'm out of prozack, but plenty of straws   , keep the faith gang its only 4th jan  , ecm next ,wonder what i will find behind settee ,cheers .

[northwestsnow]

GFS/UKMO similar at 144 which means we can probably with some safety write off the next 2 weeks for cold.

BBC monthly now taking us into Feb with zero sign of any high lat blocking.

Perhaps those us who wrote off Jan some days ago were not so foolish afterall, normally i would agree writing off a whole month of winter would be extremely negative/pessimistic  but experienced model watchers will have seen the current entrenched pattern through the years and quickly deduced there was a good chance of a horrendous Jan ..

I'm not giving up on Feb though.

[nick sussex]

A couple of GEFS survive the mild carnage but well into FI , apart from that the PV remains unforgiving .

We await the ECM to deliver a miracle !

[Mr Frost]

Deary me what’s happened to this thread? 

Usual suspects claiming they have called the correct forecasts months in advance - same tosh every season.

Should you lads not be working for the Met Office by now with all these correct calls you have made over the years? 

Some folk on here are the weather equivalent of Derek Acorah (RIP) - must be lots of weather ghosts/spirits coming through Spring, Summer, Autumn and Winter...

[SqueakheartLW]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A couple of GEFS survive the mild carnage but well into FI , apart from that the PV remains unforgiving .

We await the ECM to deliver a miracle !

The PV will go eventually, probably when we get the final warming in spring. By then it will be too warm for snow anyway

[danthetan]

Mods can you put some of these posts in the relevant moan/ramp thread please I'm sick of these winters over posts which have no help or relevance in this thread. Moan somewhere else. Thanks 

[BlueHedgehog074]

I totally understand the frustration at the moment, but best to try getting back to the models please. Thanks guys  

[blizzard81]

Things do indeed look a little grim. We can only comment on the output. However, after 16 years of watching the weather models, I do have a crumb of comfort. Sometimes they all pick up a signal then drop it only to pick it up again. I've seen it many times before. I wouldn't be surprised to see a much more amplified 12z ecm op run in the next hour. 

[Purga]

P15 gives the SE of England as the coldest place in the entirety of Europe! .

Let's face it, we all need a sense of humour to survive the utter dross of this so called 'winter'.

Edited January 4, 2020 by Purga

[SqueakheartLW]

2 minutes ago, Purga said:

P15 gives the SE of England as the coldest place in the entirety of Europe! .

Let's face it, we all need a sense of humour to survive the utter dross of this so called 'winter'.

SE England as coldest in Europe. That must be a first ever if that run came off.

[MP-R]

Came across this offering from the CFS

 

 

... at the end of April! 

Quite often I go to the CFS just for fun to see what scenarios it shows at long distance. We all of course know that long range forecasts are largely garbage but it can be quite entertaining looking at summer charts in 'mid winter'. However, on this occasion, even the CFS is pretty Atlantic dominated in one guise or another right up until June! Maybe we've got a year like 2002 on the cards.

[SqueakheartLW]

Anyone wanting any hope of colder weather either later in this winter or for winters to come may want to watch this SST Anomaly animation from NOAA. It shows the changes in the anomalies across the globe but pay particular attention to the NE Pacific in particular. This is how things have changed in the last 6 months.

Notice how warm the NE Pacific was during the summer and some of the autumn. In recent weeks the NE Pacific has started to cool down and further cooler areas are spreading out across the NW Pacific too. Hope this is the end of the warm PDO and by the time next winter comes we will have entered the cold PDO.

 

[Mapantz]

A whole bunch of crap-posts moved.

Please think about what you are posting as well as where you're posting it to. Thanks.

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s pretty easy to forecast a mild winter in the UK because even my pet budgie could do that as it’s generally the default anyway !

The so called LRFs which called mild are now being lauded as though the winters been and gone and we’re writing the obituaries.

Yes the models are poor for cold but winter isn’t over till it’s officially  over .

Even if January ends up mild February can still deliver .

I guess that's true enough, Nick...But, if it is, why, oh why, oh why, oh why, do so many folks call for Snowmageddon, year in and year out? The mind boggles!

[summer blizzard]

Tropics suggest a change in pattern may occur towards mid month but it may get worse before it gets better. The forecast easterlies east of the dateline are symptomatic of a more classic Nina like pattern rather than the pattern driven by the IOD event.

Things may improve late in the month and into next month.

[northwestsnow]

Sorry if i upset anyone with my post ..

Most here know i am a big kid really when it comes to wanting snow, even at the age of 46

I want to say i would be delighted if im wrong and we get a cold spell in Jan!!

Hopefully the EC weeklies are onto something bringing a strong sceuro into play..

[BlueHedgehog074]

Just to add to what Mapantz said, in case you’re wondering where your post(s) have disappeared to, they’ve been moved into this thread below. Felt like a more suited thread for them.

If you’re post is about the Winter only (without any model chat in it), the below thread would be the ideal one to use. 

A good place also to unleash some steam!

 

Edited January 4, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Sorry if i upset anyone with my post ..

Most here know i am a big kid really when it comes to wanting snow, even at the age of 46

I want to say i would be delighted if im wrong and we get a cold spell in Jan!!

Hopefully the EC weeklies are onto something bringing a strong sceuro into play..

Know need to apologise NWS.. your a good poster. For me it's the weather, and it's not the be all and end all... I can guarantee these things will be easier to come by when we least want them... So let's all hope and pray for mild.. Looking at the ECM shows just how much of a lack of cold there is to our East. But if we could just tap into a more NWtly feed, there at least would be some more interest! Plenty of cold lurking there.

[tight isobar]

Now if your looking for angular momentum along with vortex main lobe adjustment... then throw in wave activity.... and upper layer forwarding.... then alignment of a core split then the ecm is clearly showing the options. A strange winter that I feel will yet get stranger with a whole array of short surprises!!!!

Edited January 4, 2020 by tight isobar

[blizzard81]

55 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Things do indeed look a little grim. We can only comment on the output. However, after 16 years of watching the weather models, I do have a crumb of comfort. Sometimes they all pick up a signal then drop it only to pick it up again. I've seen it many times before. I wouldn't be surprised to see a much more amplified 12z ecm op run in the next hour. 

Voilà - Never give up hope!

Edited January 4, 2020 by blizzard81