Novel Coronavirus – China

[nick sussex]

Data from China shows just how much pre existing conditions matter .

Cardio vascular , respiratory , diabetes , cancer and hypertension cause a massive change in fatality rates .

And also reported whereas flu you see a u type graph where the very young and very old are the worst effected this isn’t happening .

 

Edited March 7, 2020 by nick sussex

[Frost HoIIow]

1 hour ago, Donegal said:

Saw a Swiss person commenting that areas of Switzerland that border Italy are screwed as most of their hospital workers live in Italy. 

Makes sense as Italian is the dominant language spoken in the southern part of Switzerland. Further north in the country it's mostly Swiss German & French that is spoken. Not unheard of for some Swiss people to speak all 3 fluently. I remember a while back Roger Federer saying he is learning Italian. Already he speaks Swiss German & French... English too.

Edited March 7, 2020 by Frost HoIIow

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

Good old usa...

[snefnug]

Ok, question. Given annual flu rates and morbidity, the high death rates in Italy, would they not also be accounted for by flu?  Or is morbidity from flu being masked by c-19?  Are all these deaths being post mortemised?

[kold weather]

Just now, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

Good old usa...

Yes, and Trump probably doesn't want many more tests as it will "raise the numbers" and probably make him look the tool he is. In the end public pressure over there is probably going to force their hand, but probably going to be too late by that point for many, especially the elderly.

[nick sussex]

Just now, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

Good old usa...

Apparently just to do a test turns into a bureaucratic nightmare . The doctor has  to talk to several different health divisions to just get the go ahead .

I saw the best analogy for the USA on twitter regarding healthcare in particular.

The richest third world country on the planet ! What’s going on there with the virus is appalling .

 

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

Anyone else wondering how many of the people in that area in the north of Italy are fleeing before this law comes in tomorrow.....Their kind of should of announced this plan when their could of enacted it immanently 

[nick sussex]

6 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Ok, question. Given annual flu rates and morbidity, the high death rates in Italy, would they not also be accounted for by flu?  Or is morbidity from flu being masked by c-19?  Are all these deaths being post mortemised?

They will test for specific flu strains aswell as c19 . It’s not in their interests to be showing c19 deaths when they’re one of the normal flu strains .

 

[snefnug]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

They will test for specific flu strains aswell as c19 . It’s not in their interests to be showing c19 deaths when they’re one of the normal flu strains .

 

Which brings up the question, the venerable aged ones of Lombardy can survive flu but not c-19?  What percentage of Italian venerable ones in northern Italy have flu vacs?

Edited March 7, 2020 by snefnug

[Guest Delete Me]

Some stats for today:

• 904 cases in Germany now
• Moldova with its 1st case
• San Francisco with 6 new cases (8 total)
• 33 new cases on Egypt nile cruise boat
• Bahrain with 62 cases

 

 

Edited March 7, 2020 by Delete Me

[emax]

17 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Data from China shows just how much pre existing conditions matter .

Cardio vascular , respiratory , diabetes , cancer and hypertension cause a massive change in fatality rates .

And also reported whereas flu you see a u type graph where the very young and very old are the worst effected this isn’t happening .

 

Probably getting into the nitty gritty too much, but would be interesting if they broke down the diabetes stats (ie CFR for type 1 vs type 2). Obviously type 2 is much more common and the better of the two to have, but I know both types can cause complications. Also, with hypertension, is that controlled hypertension, or uncontrolled hypertension (ie is someone who takes blood pressure pills and therefore has normal BP, less affected than someone who actually has high blood pressure (depending on the cause of the high BP obviously)? Just a couple of things that might help people to feel less on edge.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, snefnug said:

Which brings up the question, the venerable aged ones of Lombardy can survive flu but not c-19?  What percentage of Italian venerable ones in northern Italy have flu vacs?

Flu does kill around 0.1 of people , that masks of course the much higher rate for older people .

The UKs CMO has said this virus is more deadly than flu and the illness much worse for those who are critical but survive .

 

[matty40s]

14 minutes ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

Anyone else wondering how many of the people in that area in the north of Italy are fleeing before this law comes in tomorrow.....Their kind of should of announced this plan when their could of enacted it immanently 

I think you will fine that the roads are closed already.

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Flu does kill around 0.1 of people , that masks of course the much higher rate for older people .

The UKs CMO has said this virus is more deadly than flu and the illness much worse for those who are critical but survive .

 

Also this is far more deadly than the Swine flu of 2009, which at the top end of the estimate ended at around 0.08%. Even if the rate of fatality does eventually drop (through drugs, etc) I suspect it will still end up above that of Swine Flu, which ended up killing an estimated 280,000. 

As I've said before, IMO we are probably looking at something close to what we saw in the 60s with the Hong Kong influenza outbreak, unless things really go wrong.

[northwestsnow]

The reports coming from that care home in the US are horrific - no other word for it..

Edited March 7, 2020 by northwestsnow

[booferking]

Next cluster outbreak in North of Ireland likely doctor tells patient to go about your business as normal until tests results are through plays for a local football team in Northen Ireland plays matches etc also was at efl final last week after just returning from northern Italy.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

The reports coming from that care home in the US are horrific - no other word for it..

Any links?

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, emax said:

Probably getting into the nitty gritty too much, but would be interesting if they broke down the diabetes stats (ie CFR for type 1 vs type 2). Obviously type 2 is much more common and the better of the two to have, but I know both types can cause complications. Also, with hypertension, is that controlled hypertension, or uncontrolled hypertension (ie is someone who takes blood pressure pills and therefore has normal BP, less affected than someone who actually has high blood pressure (depending on the cause of the high BP obviously)? Just a couple of things that might help people to feel less on edge.

Many good points in your post . The data was part of an article in the Times which is behind a paywall so I can’t add more than those main fundings .

But the bit of the article states this which gets to the heart of the issue .

Its not age so much but the fact that more older people are likely to have pre existing conditions.

Its not a disease that preys on age but a disease that preys on other diseases .

 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Any links?

I haven't sorry ,i was reading on twitter ,i will try and find it ..

Its this life care place Gavin posted further up this page..

Edited March 7, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Any links?

 

[northwestsnow]

Lombardy set to go into shutdown, that is 1/5th of the Italian economy , that is big.

 

[booferking]

9 minutes ago, booferking said:

Next cluster outbreak in North of Ireland likely doctor tells patient to go about your business as normal until tests results are through plays for a local football team in Northen Ireland plays matches etc also was at efl final last week after just returning from northern Italy.

This is the team they played the day only down the road from me just announced it to.

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

This is the team they played the day only down the road from me just announced it to.

The advice from the club is stupid .  If you have symptoms over the next 24 hours get tested!   there’s an incubation period before that which could be upto two weeks . So the club is making the situation worse .

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

Edited March 7, 2020 by Wiltshire_snow_lover

[Summer Sun]

Ferrari are in the lockdown zone in Italy that will affect 16 million people. Could have huge implications for the new F1 season.