Novel Coronavirus – China

[Daniel*]

13 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

You have to explore the theory that as an island nation we are not going to see the explosion of cases that Italy, Germany, France and Spain are seeing. Being a landlocked mainland EU country you are are linked together in terms of business, movement of people, transport, economy etc far easier and greater than the UK is to EU countries. 

47 cases on Friday and 42 cases today, maybe its the weekend factor slowing case numbers down as I was expecting a jump to 60+ new cases today or just maybe the big body of water called the English Channel is allowing us to delay or even control the outbreak.

Only time will tell and the next few days are critical, If we still under 400 cases by Wednesday then I will consider this a success.

 

 

That is not true well not in this modern interconnected world, London Heathrow is busiest airport in Europe it seems clear to me we are not going to shut down. Every day 100,000 passengers arrive here from all 4 corners of planet. It will take a few days for people to have symptoms people need to remember the new cases we see every day, are actually always lagging behind reality. A lot can happen in a few days it seems the NHS is bracing for a big ramp imminently so, this means the experts are expecting it.

[Saint coolio]

About responses - it took about 50 days for Wuhan to be completely locked down. And about 50 days for Lombardy.

in both cases, incremental inter alia countermeasures didn’t work

so what is the logic in waiting for our “50 days” to be up? Why wouldn’t we act sooner given we know what’s coming?,

we seem to be waiting for some artificial, lagging, inaccurate metric of infection / deaths to hit a threshold

[summer blizzard]

Italy is about to lock down the Milan region, 16m people until April 3rd. It looks like they are copying the China model.

..

On the subject of discussion earlier I do think that travel bans should have been issued to those with an Italian, Chinese, South Korean or Iranian passport to delay things another few weeks however despite complaints I have been pleased with the government response in general. Advise has been clear, they have set out a plan and we begun mass testing earlier than most. There’s little point in the idea of daily messaging, it’s not the governments job to money coddle people who won’t listen to advise and stop panicking.

[Saint coolio]

3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Italy is about to lock down the Milan region, 16m people until April 3rd. It looks like they are copying the China model.

..

On the subject of discussion earlier I do think that travel bans should have been issued to those with an Italian, Chinese, South Korean or Iranian passport to delay things another few weeks however despite complaints I have been pleased with the government response in general. Advise has been clear, they have set out a plan and we begun mass testing earlier than most. There’s little point in the idea of daily messaging, it’s not the governments job to money coddle people who won’t listen to advise and stop panicking.

The travel ban should have been the other way too. It’s ridiculous that we have allowed thousands of our citizens to travel to skiing holidays in Italy, weekends in Venice, cruise holidays globally... in many cases to geographies in or at the fringes of major clusters, 

[Bristawl Si]

8 minutes ago, Saint coolio said:

The travel ban should have been the other way too. It’s ridiculous that we have allowed thousands of our citizens to travel to skiing holidays in Italy, weekends in Venice, cruise holidays globally... in many cases to geographies in or at the fringes of major clusters, 

How about travelling to Fuerteventura?

[Guest Delete Me]

13 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

How about travelling to Fuerteventura?

Take me there now, barcelo corralejo sands

[Zak M]

 

[Bristawl Si]

5 hours ago, ciel said:

You undoubteably know more than I do.

Whatever, it seems like the virus will pervade and without a vaccine the best advice is to handwash, use gels as appproriate and social distance.

As a follow up from my earlier post here is an extract from the Beeb website:

Four out of five people who contract coronavirus will only experience mild symptoms, a WHO examination of data from 56,000 patients says. It suggests:

80% develop mild symptoms

14% develop severe symptoms

6% become critically ill

So, despite your mildly sarcastic post earlier this evening seems i'm not alone in quoting the "80% develop mild symptoms" statement.

[Bristawl Si]

5 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

Take me there now, barcelo corralejo sands

Stayed there for a long weekend when it first opened, but norm we stay in an apartment down Grande Avienda Playas. Going for 8 weeks, end March to late May, as long as flights are on. Fingers crossed.

[Guest Delete Me]

29 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

That is not true well not in this modern interconnected world, London Heathrow is busiest airport in Europe it seems clear to me we are not going to shut down. Every day 100,000 passengers arrive here from all 4 corners of planet. It will take a few days for people to have symptoms people need to remember the new cases we see every day, are actually always lagging behind reality. A lot can happen in a few days it seems the NHS is bracing for a big ramp imminently so, this means the experts are expecting it.

Yes, I know Heathrow is Europe's busiest airport..... Paris CDG especially but also Frankfurt and Madrid are not too far behind in terms of passenger numbers through their respective airports and the countries all have greater cases numbers than the UK due to them being on the mainland.

Our biggest issue is community transmission, but we have so far done a good job with self isolation and awareness.

 

 

[Guest Delete Me]

16 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Stayed there for a long weekend when it first opened, but norm we stay in an apartment down Grande Avienda Playas. Going for 8 weeks, end March to late May, as long as flights are on. Fingers crossed.

Very nice we used to stay at Playa Park every year up on calle lanzarote but having a few years off from Corralejo. Enjoy your break....1 confirmed cases there

[Guest Delete Me]

France knocking on the 1,000 club door

[emax]

35 minutes ago, Donegal said:

A Nebraska woman(36) who contracted coronavirus has been rushed to a biocontainment unit as her disease develops into acute respiratory distress syndrome. 

A chest CT scan conducted yesterday showed the coronavirus is evolving into acute respiratory distress syndrome (ADRS). 

The syndrome, which is characterized by a rapid onset of widespread inflammation in the lungs, is often fatal.

People with ARDS suffer severe shortness of breath and often are unable to breathe on their own without support from a ventilator.

The woman reportedly traveled to England with her father February 18 to February 27. 

She began to feel ill on February 25, two days before she flew back into the United States.  

Doctors say they are still trying to piece together where she went and who she had contact with in the 10 days since she arrived back from overseas. 

According to doctors, her symptoms were quite mild until Thursday (March 5), when she arrived at a local emergency room. 

Can only find one other report on this case, and I'm very sceptical of the Mail for obvious reasons. The other report says she does have underlying health problems, and she is "stable". How up to date that is who knows.

As for ARDS though, as much as it is very much a bad news condition, the NHS website does seem to contradict the Mail "As ARDS is often caused by a serious health condition, about one in three people who develop it will die. However, most deaths are caused by the underlying illness, rather than ARDS itself." I certainly wouldn't put that in the "often fatal" bracket, but I suppose that depends how you quantify "often".

[emax]

2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

The point is people are entering the country no record of their health/movements. Italy is exporting a significant number of cases within Europe and globally... really it should be Italy stopping air travel in worst regions.

But you're talking about this government? You cant blame the UK because Italy hasn't stopped its flights?

On the subject of flights. A lot of people saying we should of stopped flights from China, S Korea, Italy etc. This may well of had an effect, but probably only a minor one in the grand scheme of things. People who wanted to arrive/depart the UK no matter what, would of just gotten connecting flights. Then there's Eurostar, the Ferries etc. You would need to shut the country down to fully limit the spread. 

I agree that any one restriction would have had an impact, but I just feel the impact on cases would of been so small, that it just wasnt worth the economical impact.

Also, hindsight is a wonderful thing (as the saying goes). No one (outside Italy at least) knew how big the case numbers were going to become in one particular country. Same in France etc. Often measures have to wait until it is already advanced. Imagine if Italy had locked down cities back when there was only a small number of cases, and if for whatever reason the spread didnt occur in Europe? People in Italy would be up in arms for being locked down for no reason, not to mention the economic impacts. You almost have to wait until its too late before you can make these decisions. Its the preemptive strike scenario. Do you fire first (even if you aren't sure you're at war), or do you wait until you're under attack?

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

[Snipper]

It has been alluded to before but what are the powers that are of the EU doing about it? I don’t recall seeing anything by way of pronouncements of note.  From individual countries yes.

[The PIT]

Countries in the EU will probably too busy with their own problems to bother with the EU and passing acts.

[Snipper]

34 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Countries in the EU will probably too busy with their own problems to bother with the EU and passing acts.

But they been so keen to control everybody’s lives in the past. Just surprised.

[Sky Full]

A few thoughts on the possible damage to the population which this virus could inflict.....

The current population of the U.K. Is 67,000,000 or thereabouts.   If 75% of the population catch this virus that would be about 50 million cases nationally.  If 2% of these cases prove fatal, then we may have to face 1 million deaths from the virus nationally, probably spread over at least 2 years.  Around 525,000 deaths occur in the UK annually from all causes and it is likely that half of the people who die from this virus might have died naturally anyway from another illness.  However, if current transmission and death rates continue, Covid-19 might be capable of increasing the annual total of UK deaths in both 2020 and 2021 by as much as 250,000, or 50% above the normal.  That's roughly the equivalent of wiping put the entire population of Brighton.  Twice.

If my sums are correct, with the world population at 7.7 billion, the same assumptions above could lead to well over 150 million deaths from C-19 worldwide.  Sobering.

I would welcome any corrections to these figures from anyone with more accurate data - or better maths than mine!   

[fujita5]

6 minutes ago, Snipper said:

But they been so keen to control everybody’s lives in the past. Just surprised.

Yes, more action should have been taken weeks ago to mitigate what's happening in Italy, and will undoubtedly happen in other countries.

Not saying it could have been prevented, but certainly could have been delayed by implementing bans on large gatherings and travel restrictions much sooner.

Edited March 8, 2020 by fujita5

[nick sussex]

4 hours ago, Snipper said:

It has been alluded to before but what are the powers that are of the EU doing about it? I don’t recall seeing anything by way of pronouncements of note.  From individual countries yes.

Healthcare and decisions of this type regarding responses to this type of virus spread  are left to countries to decide what’s best for themselves  . The EU has no legal power to intervene here and can you imagine the furore if they did start telling countries say for example what sort of quarantine measures they should be introducing .

EU health ministers have met over the virus spread to discuss issues surrounding protective gear,masks etc and what collectively they can do to help but this would all be done at national level and there’s no type of voting on this . It would just be a case of an informal thing .

[Spikecollie]

First case in the neighbouring département of Corrèze. Haute-Vienne, Creuse and Corrèze used to be called Limousin before boundaries were restructured and we were amalgamated into Nouvelle Aquitaine.

[Yarmy]

14 minutes ago, Snipper said:

But they been so keen to control everybody’s lives in the past. Just surprised.

I now have far less freedom of movement than I did 2 months ago, so my life is more controlled than it was. Moreover, if I get ill abroad this year, my EHIC card will entitle me to treatment free of charge. Next year, however...

[nick sussex]

10 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

Yes, more action should have been taken weeks ago to mitigate what's happening in Italy, and will undoubtedly happen in other countries.

Not saying it could have been prevented, but certainly could have been delayed by implementing bans on large gatherings and travel restrictions much sooner.

The EU gets accused of meddling by some and then accused of not meddling enough . 

So I take it under the transition period the UK would have been happy to be told what to do by the EU on how to combat the virus spread ! Did I miss the last 4 years.

 

[Snipper]

1 minute ago, Yarmy said:

I now have far less freedom of movement than I did 2 months ago, so my life is more controlled than it was. Moreover, if I get ill abroad this year, my EHIC card will entitle me to treatment free of charge. Next year, however...

I appreciate that.  I emphasise I am not trying the make a BREXIT point or get all political. I am just surprised there has not been more input when everything else seems to be fair game.