Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Allseasons-Si]

Yes MATT although it could be better

just been catching up with the models and i hope that the GFS/gefs and to some extent the ECM are having a slight wobble at day six

UKMO,ICON and GEM v's GFS and ECM

so some differences to be ironed out upto day six then,will the 12z get the creases ironed out,we will find out soon.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

So far so good from the ICON at 132

132 v's 138 00z

heat building in much quicker from the SW. 

 

[mb018538]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

So far so good from the ICON at 132

132 v's 138 00z

heat building in much quicker from the SW. 

 

Very good run right out to 180 hours - settled and warmer by the day. Bank  

[Allseasons-Si]

Yes the ICON is

[Zak M]

UKMO is excellent > 144

Edited May 22, 2020 by Zak M

[Mark wheeler]

Ukmo looks lovely  @120  & 144

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[mb018538]

Interesting 144 from ukmo....high drifting east. Turning warmer - I think someone mentioned last night there was a chance everything could shift east to more of a plume set up. Is this where ukmo is headed?

[Guest]

UKMO is a stonker this evening and would likely go out with a bang!

[Allseasons-Si]

Now the gfs is interesting at 96 with the shortwave compared to the 06z 102 in respect that if we have more of a trough feature(circled)then this in theory should amplify the ridge further east of it

UKMO has this too at 96

net result...

less flattening of the heights here at 120

gfs 06z at 126 for comparison.

 

[Mark wheeler]

GFS at 144 loving the trend this afternoon.

Edited May 22, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[shaky]

Big upgrade in terms of stronger heights across the uk on gfs!!brilliant 12z output so far!ukmo is a scorcher as well!ecm shall come on board later on as well!!?

[Allseasons-Si]

At 144 UKMO/GFS

@"UPGRADES"

now that the ironing out has been sorted...

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Zak M]

Wow. Both the UKMO and GFS are certainly stonkers this evening!

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Defo plume territory on the 12z upto 144hr.

[Sky Full]

While I hang on to the shed to avoid it being blown into England I have managed to take a look at the models for early June.  The GFS has it in for the UK between the 2nd and the 4th with an arctic plunge reserved just for us....!

 

Bound to change before then, eh?

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Aaaand! continues out to day 8,marvelous.

[mb018538]

Really good output on the whole. Next week looks great! A lovely way to round off an unbelievable spring.

[Methuselah]

The GFS 12Z is a STONKER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

While I hang on to the shed to avoid it being blown into England I have managed to take a look at the models for early June.  The GFS has it in for the UK between the 2nd and the 4th with an arctic plunge reserved just for us....!

 

Bound to change before then, eh?

 

And i wonder why!

 

[MikeC53]

Both the GFS and UKMO centring the High further East on their runs at day 6, so ECM will be interesting.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

Both the GFS and UKMO centring the High further East on their runs at day 6, so ECM will be interesting.

It’s what ECM did this morning and produced a hot end to May. Sod’s law it’ll flip back to showing westerly regression. 

[Mark wheeler]

Gem at 126hrs , where do we go from here .

 

Edit - Here is 144 looks fine and dandy

Edited May 22, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[mb018538]

 
 

Interesting day 9 chart too, with an upper trough sat over the UK. Hopefully that can stay away.

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Gem at 126hrs , where do we go from here .

A lot better than this morning run

here at 144

 

 

[Mark wheeler]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

A lot better than this morning run

here at 144

 

 

Yes I was wondering if it would follow this afternoon after this mornings run . good news all around if you want fine and dry weather .