Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Man With Beard]

18 minutes ago, Alderc said:

As I mentioned above it's an outlier against the other modes, will only imagine its a stonking outlier within its own ensemble groupings

As expected, an outlier, although only a proper outlier after next Saturday.

A very warm week coming up whatever, it would seem.

Edited May 22, 2020 by Man With Beard

[Leo97t]

Looks like very gradual signs of more of a north westerly from day 9 on the gfs and ecm means but obviously still nothing definite.

 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Leo97t said:

Looks like very gradual signs of more of a north westerly from day 9 on the gfs and ecm means but obviously still nothing definite.

 

Certainly looks as though the early part of June could be unsettled with incursions from the north west. Could see a dip in the jet near the UK I fear

[Captain Shortwave]

Next week looks pretty good, especially in the south with temperatures in the very warm category.

Regarding week 2, it does look like a trough may move through bringing cooler conditions but look at the agreement at the N.Hemosphere profile, low heights to the north west with the next trough exiting N.America so I would expect the Azores high to move back towards Europe later in week 2, probably returning better conditions to the U.K.

Edited May 22, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GFS 0z operational in low res, summers coming Jim..but not as we know it!

Joking aside, following a cooler less settled blip there’s plenty of high pressure bringing warmth and sunshine set to return to the southern half / third of the u k but rather, shall we say, mixed fortunes further N / NW.
 

 

 

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by JON SNOW

[mb018538]

 

ECM longer term perhaps sniffing out the chance of a trough sliding in and down the eastern side of the UK from day 10 onwards. One to watch. GFS has this feature on the 6z too.

[Zak M]

Day 16 is looking good:

   

Who cares about the time frame? 

[Guest]

 

15 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Day 16 is looking good:

   

Who cares about the time frame? 

Is that a flippant comment, that is a pretty dreadful chart. 

 

[Guest]

GFS 06Z suggests that while high pressure will remain near by there is a big spread on position. The Ops run appears to be overly aggressive in its regression (Surprise....) most keep high pressure over or just west so uppers just either side of average. One thing that is clear it that hardly any of the of the ensembles favour the warm scenario and high pressure sitting just east of the UK.

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Is that a flippant comment

Nope he has a good sense of humour!..anyhoo, the Gfs 6z op is mostly high pressure dominant, at least across southern u k until well into low resolution which as we know is a very unreliable timeframe!!!!!!!

Edited May 22, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Man With Beard]

37 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

ECM longer term perhaps sniffing out the chance of a trough sliding in and down the eastern side of the UK from day 10 onwards. One to watch. GFS has this feature on the 6z too.

Yes, notable that there are 5 clusters at D11, but they all have broadly speaking the same features as the D10 mean chart - retreated ridge into the Atlantic and trough directed through the UK into Europe. Best make the most of the sun next week, it will be all change the week after if the ECM is right.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

44 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

ECM longer term perhaps sniffing out the chance of a trough sliding in and down the eastern side of the UK from day 10 onwards. One to watch. GFS has this feature on the 6z too.

I'm not worrying too much about day 10 onwards. But like you say one to watch. I'm looking from now until day 5 max. 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Yes, notable that there are 5 clusters at D11, but they all have broadly speaking the same features as the D10 mean chart - retreated ridge into the Atlantic and trough directed through the UK into Europe. Best make the most of the sun next week, it will be all change the week after if the ECM is right.

Be all change by 12z lol

[Zak M]

21 minutes ago, Alderc said:

 

Is that a flippant comment, that is a pretty dreadful chart. 

 

It's the best chart I could find that was at least over 10 days away 

Edited May 22, 2020 by Zak M

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Just now, Zak M said:

It's the best chart that I could find that was at least over 10 days away 

10 days miles away lol

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

15 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Nope he has a good sense of humour!..anyhoo, the Gfs 6z op is mostly high pressure dominant, at least across southern u k until well into low resolution which as we know is a very unreliable timeframe!!!!!!!

Very true unreliable is an understatement lol

[summer blizzard]

Interesting Euro and GFS. Both break down finally in about a week but both illustrate why speed matters. 

In the GFS scenario the low simply pushes through and the best one can see is an active cold front.

In the Euro scenario though, the low elongates enough that we get a plume.

[Tamara]

3 hours ago, Leo97t said:

Looks like very gradual signs of more of a north westerly from day 9 on the gfs and ecm means but obviously still nothing definite.

 

Fast approaching the last week of May, it looks increasingly likely that summer won't be arriving with global atmospheric angular momentum in below average territory. 

This means that the direction of travel continues to be quite different to other e/QBO & ENSO cooling summers like 2007 which saw very strong coupling of atmosphere and ocean right at the time spring moved into summer. Angular momentum crashing spectacularly on that occasion.

Based especially on seasonal wavelength changes to summer -  stable AAM is very counter intuitive to any sustained Atlantic retrogressed ridging and downstream trough. What a slight weakening of the eastern flank of the downstream ridging, and some attempted inroads of the trough to the NW might indicate is the completion of the robust intra-seasonal convectively coupled kelvin wave (CCKW) at present propagating eastwards across the tropics and due to pass through the Pacific in the remainder of this month.

It is at this completion point in the "mini ENSO cycle" that angular momentum edges back somewhat. Suppression of convection occurs across the Pacific as the convective element moves on towards the African continent and Western Hemisphere. As atmospheric stability returns to the ENSO region in the wake of the CCKW,  then this leads to trade wind inertia increase and a rise in pressure which in turn retrogrades the downstream wavelength and the sub tropical highs in the Atlantic (Bermuda and Azores)

NWP will be anticipating the wind-flow inertia switch at this time, but as previously, they may over-egg the fall in momentum budget tendency based on global overall parity of momentum. This means they may either overdo the degree of retrogression/ fall of pressure close to the UK and/or the time period any such indicated switch of pattern lasts.

As long as heat content across the tropics as a whole, and irrespective of the cooling in the Pacific, remains anomalously warm, this is conducive to further downstream summertime sub tropical ridging and the upstream pattern allowing the ridging to adjust back towards Western Europe. The reason being that angular momentum tendency is buoyed by such an SST basin arrangement & supports further MJO related activity and westerly wind inertia continuing to be propagated from the tropics to the extra tropics and the Global Wind Oscillation kept away from the La Nina attractor phases 1,2 and 3. The GWO is this week edging through the opposite spectrum of the El Nino attractor phases - so no atmospheric co-operation at all to follow the cooling Pacific ENSO profile

The GWO in the high(er) angular momentum phases is therefore good argument to support further warm/very warm weather to return  - with any less settled & cooler conditions trying to edge down from the NW leading back to further rinse and repeat ridging as suggested in the previous post last week

 

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Be all change by 12z lol

To be fair the signal to retreat heights into the Atlantic for the first week of June has been pretty consistent for a few days, and if anything it is intensifying. I'd be more hopeful of it shifting east of the ridge was further north, as NW ridges often end up closer to the UK - but this one is generally SW - much rarer to fry these ones to correct towards the UK. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Know wonder cheeky monkey ain't been posting much on this thread recently, conditions out there at the moment look akin to our worst Winter.. Hoping it gets better for you sooner mate. 

[damianslaw]

Exceptionally windy out there today, feels like the depths of winter in late May. All very odd feeling.

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, MATT said:

Know wonder cheeky monkey ain't been posting much on this thread recently, conditions out there at the moment look akin to our worst Winter.. Hoping it gets better for you sooner mate. 

I’d buy that for a $

anyway, looking at the GEFS 6z mean, plenty of high pressure / ridging is indicated throughout, especially across southern u k!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Exceptionally windy out there today, feels like the depths of winter in late May. All very odd feeling.

Is it around 14c in your locality Damien... And feels like about 8 or 9c..big contrast there, with 22c in the SE today.. But the wind as certainly tampered the feel today. At least an improvement come Sunday onwards with those winds dropping light also. 

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Exceptionally windy out there today, feels like the depths of winter in late May. All very odd feeling.

That wind has been very gusty here this morning thanks to the lee of the Pennines causing some minor damage in my garden,"brush this nonsense weather aside"

thankfully things look like settling down again next week .

[MATTWOLVES 3]

It's a decent mean from the 6z..plenty of settled Conditions moving into June.. Anything beyond this is subject to much change, but I've noticed Exeter are putting most of June down to possibly above average temperatures, and any unsettled conditions likely to be shortlived.. So perhaps still know signs of any major Atlantic influences...