Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Djdazzle]

GFS mean also show retrogression but not as strong as the op.

I’d rather have a more mobile westerly pattern than retrogression. At least then you have a chance of a ridge building in and gaining a foothold and bringing some warm weather. That GFS run would be cool, cloudy and boring. Total waste of high pressure!

At least GEM is much better out to 240.

Edited May 20, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Mike Poole]

GEM looks a cracker to me, here:

Jet stream track interesting:

This is an evolution I would expect to see unlike GFS, given suggested maintenance of above average AAM (from CFS) and SST profile:

[knocker]

3 hours ago, LRD said:

Mid-latitude highs dominant. It looks like the normal sub-tropical belt of high pressure has moved, in it's entirety, miles and miles north

May I ask why you consider that mid latitude highs are dominant as many seem to agree.?

[stodge]

Evening all

After a brief pause at the weekend, the settled theme returns next week but beyond that where does the summer pattern take us?

ECM this morning showed the risk of the HP over-extending and allowing the trough to move up from the south and GFS Control picks up a similar theme.

The OP isn't done with northern blocking and ends up shifting the Azores HP north and opening the door for a much cooler N'ly - shades of 1975? Well, not quite thought that summer was excellent.

GEM OP is about as good as it gets with the ridge solid from NW of the Azores through the British Isles to Scandinavia and NW Russia though by T+240 pressure is falling and the European trough is encroaching and this is a pattern we often see in June with more unsettled conditions over Europe encroaching into southern Britain.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Decent output if you ask me.. Also decent signs from the Met... Gem was a cracking run from the operational... But let me tell ya... The mean ain't to shabby either.. A very underrated model if you ask me.. Plenty of time for more fun in the sun me thinks..

[Djdazzle]

I think it may go pear-shaped on the ECM from 168 onwards. Looks primed to retrogress.

Edited May 20, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Mike Poole]

Quick comparison at T144, UKMO, GFS, GEM:

And now the ECM:

Closest to UKMO at this point, perhaps?

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

I think it may go pear-shaped on the ECM from 168 onwards. Looks primed to retrogress.

N Atlantic/Greenland heights are a common occurrence in low solar year summers. So I suspect we'll see a few occurrences of this over the course of the summer.

Doesn't necessarily mean it'll be wet though.

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

N Atlantic/Greenland heights are a common occurrence in low solar year summers. So I suspect we'll see a few occurrences of this over the course of the summer.

Doesn't necessarily mean it'll be wet though.

True, but usually it’s pretty naff for summer prospects.

Hoping for an update on the NOAA charts as they weren’t showing this as a possibility.

[Guest]

ECM  @ T168 is going down the GFS route, rapid regression putting us into an awkward spot through the second half of next week. Think an uptick in Atlantic activity is a better option than a westerly regressing high at this time of year. Will again mean the return of cold nights.

[Zak M]

Yes please!

Mmmm...

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

ECM  @ T168 is going down the GFS route, rapid regression putting us into an awkward spot through the second half of next week. Think an uptick in Atlantic activity is a better option than a westerly regressing high at this time of year. Will again mean the return of cold nights.

Hahaha ECM says NOOOO @ T192 to the regressing high

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Hahaha ECM says NOOOO @ T192 to the regressing high

I was just going to say re the T168 that the ECM has the hallmarks of a train of high pressure 'coaches' while the GFS doesn't before the internet went down on me!  Clear on T192:

And on T216:

Edited May 20, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Hahaha ECM says NOOOO @ T192 to the regressing high

Love the way you quoted yourself!

 

Edited May 20, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Zak M]

216:

[LRD]

Again, incredible extent of the high pressure belt here...

Unbelievable Jeff

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Pretty good ending from ECM.. HIGH PRESSURE still looks quite a large dominant feature.. And it ain't gonna be budged that easily. 

Edited May 20, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Mike Poole]

Decent set of 12z runs, I think, overall, just add JMA T192:

ECM close to UKMO at T144 so maybe that one would head the same way as ECM. Key to prolonging the warm or hot spell is continued pieces of high pressure heading into Scandi from the Azores, see my trian analogy on post re ECM, most of the models show this to some extent, GEM the most extreme.  Only GFS seems on it's own with the retrogression angle, as it has been for several runs, so at the moment it looks unlikely, in my view.

Edited May 20, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean T144, T 240:

High pressure train well in evidence at T144, but I would imagine a fair minority of members might follow the GFS to give the mean chart at T240.  Clusters will help, later, or realistically, tomorrow!

[Leo97t]

The Gfs has been a cold outlier for the last few runs so if its being persistent it might be onto something - it was right last week I think it might be right again - defo been the superior model this season (apart from its dreadful max temp predictions!)

[Scorcher]

7 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

The Gfs has been a cold outlier for the last few runs so if its being persistent it might be onto something - it was right last week I think it might be right again - defo been the superior model this season (apart from its dreadful max temp predictions!)

Interested to know what evidence you have for the GFS being superior this season- in my eyes it has got quite a lot wrong and is clearly biased towards unsettled scenarios.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Interested to know what evidence you have for the GFS being superior this season- in my eyes it has got quite a lot wrong and is clearly biased towards unsettled scenarios.

Ive got to agree with you here.. Personally I think this new FV3 model is not a patch on the old GFS. It overplays unsettled scenarios and over hypes cold uppers during Winter. And the mean and the op are often on a completely different page. I would say ECM and UKMO by far the best, with GEM then GFS followed by ICON, obviously that's my thoughts and others may disagree. 

[Djdazzle]

43 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

The Gfs has been a cold outlier for the last few runs so if its being persistent it might be onto something - it was right last week I think it might be right again - defo been the superior model this season (apart from its dreadful max temp predictions!)

Only it wasn’t right last week. It was predicting a complete breakdown and full on Atlantic incursion. Don’t believe that has happened, or is even going to happen.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

As you were with the icon out to day 5..By Sunday and especially Monday it should be warming up again with increasing amounts of sun. For the life of me I can't work out why they only run the 18s out to T120.. The Germans must shut up shop early for the night..

[Zak M]

Looking at the GFS 18z, there will be more sunshine and warmth on offer next week... as if May couldn't get any better! It got up to 26c today here, and there could also be similar temperatures next week along with the blazing bright sunshine... just how I like it! Anyways, I'm off to bed now, early night for me tonight, and hopefully tomorrow morning when I wake up there will be some storms! Take care all, make sure you get a good nights sleep...