Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Methuselah]

Aanndd...another shot at a thundery breakdown!?

    

[Frosty.]

So far..the Ukmo 12h looks best to me @ T+144 hours, the Icon 12z just behind and I honestly think that any low pressure such as the Gfs 12z shows would be very short-lived with high pressure soon building in again so I think it’s fair to say the outlook is predominantly fine and warm across southern u k ...even very warm at times further south / southeast whereas N / NW  u k are more exposed to any Atlantic intrusion, such as later this week for example!..fingers crossed the ECM follows the stellar Ukmo!!!

 

Edited May 19, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Zak M]

According to the GFS 12z, we could start June with some settled and warm weather...

   

But only time will tell! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Literally every single ensembles so far is warm for this time next week.. Some very warm.. And this one the warmest of em all... +16c uppers knocking our door.. Ohh the joys of summer, we fight tooth and nail for one significant cold snap in winter and we end up with nowt.. Here we are not even in June, and we already have very warm spells coming at two a penny. Lovely jubiley

[Methuselah]

12Z nae bad, at triple Nelsons...Time to stand on one-leg methinks. Superstitious? Moi?

    

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Not sure what the GFS 12z is on but these are some of the worst temperatures ive seen for the end of May.  But still should feel pleasant enough in any sunshine. 
 

[SMU]

30 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Must be a chance of high 20s by midweek Steve? High thicknesses and decent 850s? I’d say 28-29c is certainly possible.

Possibly > its just depends on how fast we mix out the chilly air from the NW & replace it with air from the South...

 

[Scorcher]

 

22 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Not sure what the GFS 12z is on but these are some of the worst temperatures ive seen for the end of May.  But still should feel pleasant enough in any sunshine. 
 

I find it very surprising you've picked out 3 horrible charts from deep FI and ignored all the excellent charts on show in the reliable. That evolution from GFS is just not going to happen so it's pointless looking at the surface temperatures.

Edited May 19, 2020 by Scorcher

[MKN]

Really pathetic from the gfs once again. Do they not compare forecasts with actual readings. Then adjust the program? 

[mb018538]

6 minutes ago, MKN said:

Really pathetic from the gfs once again. Do they not compare forecasts with actual readings. Then adjust the program? 

Mentioned this earlier....forecast 20c here today (Cambridge), it’s been over 25c.

Bear in mind 12z is run at 12pm, not at about 5pm when we see it.

[Djdazzle]

GFS even wrong at T0 . . .  

Good 12z output so far today - hoping ECM gives us a belter.

Edited May 19, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Mike Poole]

20 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Mentioned this earlier....forecast 20c here today (Cambridge), it’s been over 25c.

Bear in mind 12z is run at 12pm, not at about 5pm when we see it.

1pm actually BST, but agree anyway. Where is the GEM tonight?

[Methuselah]

Well folks, the scatter is even worse on the GFS 12Z...Make of it, what you will!

    

    

And, there's nowt there that promises any imminent amelioration of potential drought woes!

[Djdazzle]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

1pm actually BST, but agree anyway. Where is the GEM tonight?

It's trickling out now, as is ECM.

[Zak M]

ECM at 144 is looking good:

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Possibly > its just depends on how fast we mix out the chilly air from the NW & replace it with air from the South...

 

 

Cold air all gone by Monday on the ECM. Looking good.

[mb018538]

 

 

Day 7 - very warm again, especially in the south. 

[tight isobar]

Ecm@168.. Preety much represent by all 500 geopots -outs..next week's return of high pressure certainly looks to bounce with some eye watering suface temps!!!

The swathe and expanse of- HP is worthy of mention also!!!

 

Edited May 19, 2020 by tight isobar

[Mike Poole]

This getting to the interesting part of the run at T192:

Does the high pressure retract west or not , so far, so good.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T216:

heat building. And still HP well to the east, cracking run this.

Edit, corrected heights chart from T192 to T216, sorry about that mistake. 

Edited May 19, 2020 by Mike Poole

[mb018538]

 

This little feature here needs watching at day 7-10....it’s what the GFS explodes into a nasty low on the 12z run.

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

 

This little feature here needs watching at day 7-10....it’s what the GFS explodes into a nasty low on the 12z run.

I very much doubt any model could accurately predict a low forming at 216, let alone how it behaves subsequently!

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

This little feature here needs watching at day 7-10....it’s what the GFS explodes into a nasty low on the 12z run.

Indeed..although some data has it on a vertical drop..and with decreasing vigor!!!..@ Almost absorbed in  to high pressure!

Edited May 19, 2020 by tight isobar

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240:

In terms of the retrogression aspect, ECM in the balance, difficult to know, maybe all irrelevant because the models have got it wrong at day 5!  All in all, a very good run.

Edited May 19, 2020 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

We can't complain with the 12s today.. Hopefully a good mean to come, also some heat building on the ECM towards the backend.. Dare I say it.... A cheeky 30c!! Either way there's plenty of lift ya spirits conditions to look forward to.... Dare I say it... A cheeky little barbi and a couple of cold ones to boot..