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Model Output Discussion - heading into April

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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weathermadbarnsleylad Aficionado

weathermadbarnsleylad

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted (edited)

Gfs 12z 102hr joining the icon party 

Screenshot_20200521-165802.png

Edited by weathermadbarnsleylad
Missed text
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted

It seems that these days the weather norm know longer applies.. Remember the days when if a Bank Holiday was upon us, it was literally guaranteed the weather would break down... Not anymore, this Holiday is looking increasingly warm and sunny... So enjoy it peeps.. And get used to it.. UKMO joins the party. 

UW72-21.gif

UW96-21.gif

UW120-21.gif

Yrepfm-m2jFe.gif

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Popular Post
Posted

UKMO is very good at 144

UW144-21.gif

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Popular Post
Posted

image.thumb.gif.6be3432db6c741745cd2b652d33b58d8.gifC82062B3-1277-4E1B-8362-0EFD3FF94A96.thumb.gif.63c5321e63496f34b8ab9b3b915af8cb.gif
 

UKMO 144 chart - stunning again ☀️ 

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
  • Popular Post
Posted

Stunnning ukmo!!and gfs completes the embarrassing backtrack and joins ecm and ukmo on the 12z!!what a beautiful set  of 12zs so far!!!ecm to complete the full house later!!

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

Really pleased to see this from GFS tonight to at192:

anim_joi5.gif

GFS has been at odds with the other models in wanting to retrogress the high to the west on several runs, I have been sceptical about this, so it is good to see the HP train on this one too.

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Really pleased to see this from GFS tonight to at192:

anim_joi5.gif

GFS has been at odds with the other models in wanting to retrogress the high to the west on several runs, I have been sceptical about this, so it is good to see the HP train on this one too.

Seems there might be a little bit more westerly momentum being added now which is stopping the high from regressing? Helps us out as you say as it nudges it back over us.

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Day 8 is looking very promising!

892668668_h500slp(4).thumb.png.7f17ad93865c4801a7a3f1fae7249d74.png   859298421_h850t850eu(1).thumb.png.53bf046843f02a4e7d3bc3e0bec7db57.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Another stonking weekend is on the way. Let's hope that the tPV (or, rather, what's left of it!) stays put, until October...?:clapping:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

A summer like Barcelona?:oldlaugh:

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Popular Post
Posted

What a lovely GFS run this evening! It has high pressure dominating for 10 days straight starting from the 24th May, with 20c being reached in London on every single one of those days!

I have to say, the weather this spring has been phenomenal!

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WxHerts Enthusiast

WxHerts

Posted
Posted

Stunning set of 12z runs thus far, keeping an eye on that upper low slowly moving thru the atlantic @ d6ish for any plumey/30c+ potential later on..but that would be at least 10 days off..what's for certain however is the current warm and dry spell continuing into the foreseeable (with a trace of much needed rain or drizzle, albeit not enough, this weekend)!

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DTHFCJ Aficionado

DTHFCJ

Posted
  • Location: south wales uk
  • Weather Preferences: hot and sunny
  • Location: south wales uk
Posted
19 minutes ago, Zak M said:

What a lovely GFS run this evening! It has high pressure dominating for 10 days straight starting from the 24th May, with 20c being reached in London on every single one of those days!

I have to say, the weather this spring has been phenomenal!

These back you up Zak...

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

also very dry....

ensemble-rrrcum-london.gif

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MikeC53 Contributor

MikeC53

Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
Posted

Great set of 12z runs, I think a lot of people were expecting Spring and early Summer to see lots of Atlantic/Greenland blocking setting up but it just hasn't happened.

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

Great set of 12z runs, I think a lot of people were expecting Spring and early Summer to see lots of Atlantic/Greenland blocking setting up but it just hasn't happened.

Let's save that for December!

Add GEM to this afternoon's set of great runs.

Edited by Djdazzle
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matt111 Maestro

matt111

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Posted

Coming in here and seeing the number of popular posts is more akin to madness of winter than this time of year. Something good on the way?  

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted
42 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Another stonking weekend is on the way. Let's hope that the tPV (or, rather, what's left of it!) stays put, until October...?:clapping:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

A summer like Barcelona?:oldlaugh:

Your farm will be a desert by then!

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Scorcher Veteran

Scorcher

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted

Massive improvement from the GFS this evening. A much better setup for widespread sunshine and warmth.

I was beginning to worry about high pressure getting stuck out to our west and being stuck in westerlies/northwesterlies, but my fears have been allayed this evening.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Not a bad set of afternoon runs, at all: GFS stays mostly dry (if not awe-inspiringly hot) throughout. And no brake on sunshine totals, either::oldgood:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Some heat build-up, down over the Mediterranean too!:shok: 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

The GEM has completed now and is another belter.

anim_ddk6.gif

Just leaves the ECM for the full deck!

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Fourty Point Three Degrees Seasoned

Fourty Point Three Degrees

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
Posted

Im going to give the GFS a few more runs to get on board with the warmth and sunshine for places like Manchester and NW England next week. No way am i convinced yet that were going be stuck with daytime maxes of around 19C/20C while London basks in 26/27C. I thought it was late May not late August. 

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
1 minute ago, 38.7°C said:

Im going to give the GFS a few more runs to get on board with the warmth and sunshine for places like Manchester and NW England next week. No way am i convinced yet that were going be stuck with daytime maxes of around 19C/20C while London basks in 26/27C. I thought it was late May not late August. 

20C is pretty good for late May in Manchester. I take your point though.

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