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Model Output Discussion - heading into April

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

No, I don't think it will ruin this summer for a while, the signals for the next two months look very good, but La Niña may well be a factor in my view from after mid July, via tanking AAM.  Long way to go until then, while the prognosis in the meantime is largely positive.  It is for  me anyway......my car park is lovely at this time of year, but  I can't get a decent tan on a dining chair because the shadow of my moobs leaves white streaks.  We all have our lockdown problems......

Again, that can be overdone. A certain ‘well known’ forecaster around these parts (Who has strangely blocked me on twitter) has been calling for unsettled weather in May via falling AAM/-FT since mid April....it’s been settled and dry again. I think he wants it to be unsettled to validate his thoughts and score some points. I’ve stopped paying so much attention to it all now, it’s useful but not the be all and end all.

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Hmmm interesting 18z gfs!extends the warmth and sun a bit longer for thursday friday!!and also seems like a batch if thunderstorms crossing over early thursday morning for midlands and east anglia!!!it then looks like the ridge builds in even quicker from the south at 114 hours!!lets see where this takes us!!

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Well the 18z gfs is just a brief blip mostly for the NW then high pressure looks like returning from the SW

120 and 144

471151720_gfs-0-120(1).thumb.png.c64c1651cae281b690e905aac650cd56.png1876654624_gfs-0-144(2).thumb.png.b8d9fd1a9d6c7c127d46300b31013ffb.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

And going the GEM route.:yahoo::clapping:

gfs-0-174.thumb.png.aac9bbe6ef357b5c0090a80f919f6db5.png

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weathermadbarnsleylad Aficionado

weathermadbarnsleylad

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted

Evening all. This might sound strange but I have decided I will not trust any output beyond 72hrs at the time been until I feel a bit more confident in the output. My thoughts are the unsettled part showing Thursday/Friday/Saturday/Sunday or whenever it's gonna be won't be much at all if anything (maybe a few heavy storms) also I can see before the end of the month a plume coming (not a long hot spell maybe 2/3 days max with chances of 30+ then storms and then high building again. The high pressure and heat in the south looks tasty and it will come north very shortly. No models are at grips with the intensity of it. I'm only an amateur looking at free charts but the lack of data is proving more influential than we no. Any other year I would highly rate the ECM first but its so up and down from just 4 day ahead. Tonights 18zgfs looks like we could get something hot pushing up from France Thursday ish but then gfs gets confused and pushes it East quickly. Im not trying to hype anything up or be a ramper etc but I'm sure something is brewing. Night all

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weathermadbarnsleylad Aficionado

weathermadbarnsleylad

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted

Short Gefs ensemble 18z run max temps South Yorkshire only interested in these at minute due to model wobbles. 

Screenshot_20200518-001102.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Well, wouldn't that be fine end to the 00Z? What a warm mainland!:clapping:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And, even better, the GFS op is on the cool side of the GEFS ensembles!:oldgood:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

Curiouser and curiouser?:unsure2:

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

ECM is amazing again this morning. Strong high pressure building in and dominating through next week. Yes please!

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Leo97t Aficionado

Leo97t

Posted
Posted

I think its likely that some south Eastern stations will record less than 2mm of rain this month - Heathrow is on 0.4mm and I would be surprised to see it go up at all - driest may on record possible? GEM records 0mm for the south out to 240 hr while ECM just 3mm.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Popular Post
Posted

Apart from a brief cooler less settled intrusion later this week, (mainly across the NW) the ECM 0z operational is a cracker if you love high pressure as I do..enjoy the increasing warmth and sunshine during the coming days, parts of the s / se could hit 27 / 28c midweek and generally mid 20’s c.☀️

5634863C-9797-43DE-95FB-4C4A82D2FB2E.thumb.png.702d3805e0f2bd3358bd1d2c7ff40240.pngEB40214C-2B0A-4C76-93D8-529494B79D0F.thumb.png.b10570b8874a2cb1581ad0a7f5578925.pngC76ADEE3-A772-48DD-8E51-10D3B5947FB4.thumb.png.fea44724729919286ee528fcfe0e8b41.png252B0E0B-DB40-46C9-9391-76357E7C8A36.thumb.png.b1e7904654a13fd4a3fe9c0df50ccbc6.png9344E716-9260-404F-938C-5FE7F2DD3D2C.thumb.png.74d77368dbbe3f88b378ce7bcf672765.pngF5DC0E38-542A-4F37-BA10-FEA62BFBD52F.thumb.png.50cc149fd4c6d9592208a171feeb4d08.png34BA3372-3DFA-4D25-9401-83872423504D.thumb.png.69725514e6a46f50a8ed2e433b657616.png43049877-210D-4BAA-A15C-30D92856B88D.thumb.png.8d09a7340dff3c5f92498dedf3006579.png26EA6C2A-A46B-48FF-9C43-DB3846FDA398.thumb.png.8e2f77c339ddb2d606c5d20f7f61b84c.png

 

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
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Posted

This is a stunning mean at D7. England and Wales can already consider most of next week "in the bag" for more decent weather and fairly warm (at least!)

EDM1-168.GIF?18-12

Still some teething problems for Friday/Saturday coming up, unsettled further north, south/east may still stay mainly settled but probably a passing front at some point.

EDM1-120.GIF?18-12

 

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted (edited)

F186239B-A37A-48CF-B9DC-16FE42F341B2.thumb.png.0a7eac3ec71e8b8b7d29749f53100eec.pngA15F7534-CE33-4187-A8D0-AF77161E12CC.thumb.png.1efdcb6a4c2931193d54743cf4bc7efe.png
 

ECM on the very high end of the ensembles this morning, but the mean is great too. Pressure mean of 1032mb in a weeks time.

Edited by mb018538
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weathermadbarnsleylad Aficionado

weathermadbarnsleylad

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted

Storm Thursday anyone??? Cape index 06z Thursday 

ukcapeli.png

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Popular Post
Posted

EC clusters show how the unsettled interruption this weekend passes through very quickly:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020051800_096.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020051800_120. ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020051800_144.

By the middle of next week, a very settled position looks reasonably nailed on aside perhaps the far NW

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020051800_216.

No massive sign of a breakdown as June arrives, though perhaps a slight retreat of the ridge westwards. (I note that this has been a recurring theme in FI on the clusters, though, and the ridge keeps getting corrected further east as we move into D7-D10)

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020051800_360.

 

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Tasty!

469056822_h500slp(7).thumb.png.ba4077cbee0e0de3192375052ff7dc7e.png   1209443129_h500slp(8).thumb.png.4e207db5f6bdf573c9f3fbb9b3155bc6.png

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Absolutely fantastic output this morning from gfs and ecm!!and also on top of that we see the extension of warmth gather pace for thursday into friday as well as an upgrade for thunderstorms for midlands and the south east!!come to mama summer!!!

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

I can't complain about the 6z mean, pressure looks to be in control throughout the entire run.. If there was a slight grievance, it would be to say its backed a little W/SW at times but that would be really nit picking at so far out.. Certainly can't see any Atlantic push.. Bar a tad more unsettled later this week, and even then its brief and mainly a W/NW scenario.. All looking good so far and hell yehh, the ECM was a peach... Enjoy it and saty safe folks.. 

gens-21-1-96.png

gens-21-1-120.png

gens-21-1-144.png

gens-21-1-168.png

gens-21-1-192.png

gens-21-1-228.png

gens-21-1-324.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Mark wheeler Maestro

Mark wheeler

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted (edited)

Hello Mr Navgem 6z how nice to see you !

DE13677D-C816-477F-B5EC-81D9C4638BA1.png

DF442B90-209C-4746-9FDB-950D3A1E88A2.png

8805CC92-2679-447E-B16E-CA533CEFB86F.png

B51B7AED-4ADF-4D86-BC0A-CD386F68D271.png

52C96447-39DE-4A0C-842A-3B6EB218DBA7.png

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

It must be said there is a HUGE spread in the GFS 06z ensembles from the 26th onwards, and what's really interesting is that lots of the individual members seem to indicate whatever you end up with post the 26th is pretty much what you keep for a good week. The GFS mean for this run is almost completely irrelevant and as pointless as looking at, and focusing in the Op, Control or any of the other members. 

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Hello Mr Navgem 6z how nice to see you !

DE13677D-C816-477F-B5EC-81D9C4638BA1.png

DF442B90-209C-4746-9FDB-950D3A1E88A2.png

8805CC92-2679-447E-B16E-CA533CEFB86F.png

B51B7AED-4ADF-4D86-BC0A-CD386F68D271.png

52C96447-39DE-4A0C-842A-3B6EB218DBA7.png

Looks nice but air trapped below the high is quite cool and will take a while to warm out. 

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Guest

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Similar to last year when we got +23c uppers & it wasnt that hot!

Same for all the output really this morning from all the models.

Also the convective oomph from GFS for Thursday appears to driven from highly unlikely dewpoints of 16-18c.....

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Looks nice but air trapped below the high is quite cool and will take a while to warm out. 

It’s not that cool? 500mb heights are strong too. Would easily be mid twenties, so pretty good.

image.thumb.png.fad5845e2fe28d3f8626da36914f65ee.png

image.thumb.png.f9795ea47eb44b3db0875b6024f15c3d.png

Edited by mb018538
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