Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Man With Beard]

44 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

T240, I'd bank that given previous runs!

At lot of FI runs going this way, and the clusters this morning favoured this high pressure "over the top" scenario, but a long way off, and a risk of getting stuck with the trough over southern areas. Fantastic for Scotland though!

[Tim Bland]

Not much joy for most of England and Wales with the low anchored to the south east day 6-10

[Guest]

53 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The same Manchester that has had 7 days in a row above 24C?? 

No way we will be in single figures here even in the worst case scenario.

 

Ecm has a wide swath of sub 10c maxima on Saturday through central/north England and parts of wales on Saturday. The ECM maxes through next Thursday never really get above 16/17c at best 12-15c for the most part. The surface conditions really are very very poor for June. 

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

You got lucky. Simple! Try doing it in winter when snow is predicted!

There’s no luck about it, this cooler and more unsettled period was flagged up impressively in advance some of you chose to ignore it, instead believing this weather could go on endlessly a ridiculous notion because of what has happened before...the atmosphere is much more fluid than that. Nothing stands still.

EC clusters from 22nd forecast for 3rd June 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Ecm has a wide swath of sub 10c maxima on Saturday through central/north England and parts of wales on Saturday. The ECM maxes through next Thursday never really get above 16/17c at best 12-15c for the most part. The surface conditions really are very very poor for June. 

Aye...One run from one model. The end of the world is nigh?

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM mean from 144...

All looks static to me with a low/trough over the UK then heading towards the SW later on and perhaps warming up from the S/SE.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

18 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I’d pay no real attention to the met office long range month ahead forecasts to be honest....go back through the appropriate thread and look at the updates from mid to late May. All of them go for a warm and settled June. They now say the opposite - cool, unsettled. No real use to anyone, and re-enforcing the chaotic nature of weather forecasting! What a nightmare.

That's not a true reflection mate.. It says more unsettled towards the East with areas further West more settled, then it goes onto say more widely settled later.. 

I loved the ECM op... Here is the mean, not quite as good as the op, but I still feel a return to Higher Pressure towards mid next week looks a decent call. 

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

At lot of FI runs going this way, and the clusters this morning favoured this high pressure "over the top" scenario, but a long way off, and a risk of getting stuck with the trough over southern areas. Fantastic for Scotland though!

Despite the positive postings about this scenario the surface conditions will be more than likely be very poor, slow moving frontal activity, dew points in the teens, similar temps lots of cloud and pretty dire. This is not the way we want to go unless that trough drops another 200-300miles further south west! 

Edited June 2, 2020 by Guest

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe models showing a predominantly cool unsettled picture, indeed a deepening low pressure system anchoring down on the UK by the end of the week, something we haven't seen in a long time. End result some useful rain for some.

Into next week, models showing the low pressure moving south joining the main European trough and a ridge building in behind - a very probable outcome, the south could though remain stuck under the trough for a bit, and the driest weather reserved for the north and west. 

Longer term, mmm not really convinced the models are showing a quick return to a long lasting settled spell, orientation of heights to our west not quite favouring this, a pincer effect with the trough to the south and low pressure to the NW - could quickly see a return to a chilly NW/N flow and further rain, with the azores high sent back westwards. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Aye...One run from one model. The end of the world is nigh?

Omg everyone is in denial. Gfs also has widespread single digit maxes of 8c on Saturday, Icon 10c. It’s not just one model....people need to look at all parameters....

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Omg everyone is in denial. Gfs also has widespread single digit maxes of 8c on Saturday, Icon 10c. It’s not just one model....people need to look at all parameters....

Possibly. But we've all known a cooler, more unsettled weather-pattern is coming, for yonks; and I want rain (it's my #1 concern)...So, how are we in 'denial'? Because we don't all agree, 100%, with your personal synopsis?

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Omg everyone is in denial. Gfs also has widespread single digit maxes of 8c on Saturday, Icon 10c. It’s not just one model....people need to look at all parameters....

I don't think people are in denial about Saturday.  It is more that we can see glimmers of hope on the 12z models that this a short-lived unsettled and cool spell.  

[Scorcher]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Omg everyone is in denial. Gfs also has widespread single digit maxes of 8c on Saturday, Icon 10c. It’s not just one model....people need to look at all parameters....

I think most of your posts should be in the moan thread rather than in here- it's getting very tiresome reading them.

You are the one looking at the raw data from one run. The Met Office are forecasting 12C here on Saturday- which yes is poor for June but it's still not 'single figures'.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

11 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Reliable timeframe models showing a predominantly cool unsettled picture, indeed a deepening low pressure system anchoring down on the UK by the end of the week, something we haven't seen in a long time. End result some useful rain for some.

Into next week, models showing the low pressure moving south joining the main European trough and a ridge building in behind - a very probable outcome, the south could though remain stuck under the trough for a bit, and the driest weather reserved for the north and west. 

Longer term, mmm not really convinced the models are showing a quick return to a long lasting settled spell, orientation of heights to our west not quite favouring this, a pincer effect with the trough to the south and low pressure to the NW - could quickly see a return to a chilly NW/N flow and further rain, with the azores high sent back westwards. 

Fair point... But equally I'm not convinced we are heading for a long term unsettled spell. The Atlantic still looks in a complete slumber, possibly low solar activity adding to a meandering jet... One of many possibilities.. I can't see anything from anywhere and that includes the pros to suggest we could be stuck in a rut long term.. I could be proven wrong, and I stand to be corrected, but so far I feel its looking pretty positive. 

Edited June 2, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

ECM isn’t that bad - but there is an upper level trough stuck over part of the UK for over a week. Too far out at this range to say what that would entail - showers or longer spells of rain. Which I don’t know. This chart below probably didn’t look like it’d lead to 75mm of rain falling in 48 hours in Lincolnshire last year at face value!

I have zero enthusiasm towards ECM 12z only at day 10 it looks good.. it is very poor for us in the southeast very suppressed temperatures, cloudy and a fair bit of rain over 40mm in places. The totals are trending upwards for our region and drier for N/W.

 

[northwestsnow]

17 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I think most of your posts should be in the moan thread rather than in here- it's getting very tiresome reading them.

You are the one looking at the raw data from one run. The Met Office are forecasting 12C here on Saturday- which yes is poor for June but it's still not 'single figures'.

Deleted.

No point antagonizing the thread.

Edited June 2, 2020 by northwestsnow

[bluearmy]

There is a possibility that the low trough could get cut off and displaced to our sw ...something to watch out for as the ebb and flow of the Azores hIgh could allow a general retrogression of the pattern to bring us Into a s or se flow ....

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

There is a possibility that the low trough could get cut off and displaced to our sw ...something to watch out for as the ebb and flow of the Azores hIgh could allow a general retrogression of the pattern to bring us Into a s or se flow ....

Fine lines Blue...

Next few days model output will be fascinating.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Who cares if it's going to rain and what the actual temps will be on Saturday because it's not the end of the world or summer come to that,the greenery needs a break,a break from all this dryness,we do not want hope-pipe bans,forest fires,danger to wildlife etc etc!,we can live with a bit of rain so chill

There is still a lot of uncertainty as to regards to how this low/trough will end up,fl is always from 120(day 5)> in my view.

i am looking for so eastern promise from day ten,watch this space.

 

[mb018538]

47 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I just posted about a tweet by meto forecaster ...

Hints of HP moving back in next werk,perhaps.

I saw that tweet and was a bit surprised. Marco is very knowledgeable and a very nice chap - but to tweet that based one one ECM OP run that’s an outlier anyway seemed a bit odd to me. Maybe the morning will hold more clues!

[Djdazzle]

43 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

There’s no luck about it, this cooler and more unsettled period was flagged up impressively in advance some of you chose to ignore it, instead believing this weather could go on endlessly a ridiculous notion because of what has happened before...the atmosphere is much more fluid than that. Nothing stands still.

EC clusters from 22nd forecast for 3rd June 

Wow - the clusters were right. How many times does that happen at that range? Can we cut out the “I told you so” stuff? Some folk consistently look for breakdowns - even a broken clock is correct twice a day!

 

Edited June 2, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Mapantz]

Time to move on and stop the bickering!

[Guest]

Bit lively in here tonight! Seems like there’s two sets of differing thoughts on the next ten days or so both involving high pressure slowly squeezing out the trough to the south west. It’s fine margins between being stuck under trailing, slow moving fronts and surpressed temps vs the same scenario but it being able to advect in warmer, probably clearer but still humid air from the continent. Yes I’m very cautious, and I will refer to surface data to back-up or challenge others posting pressure charts - guess I’ve had my fingers burnt enough over the years by our problematic climate!! So please don’t think of me as too much of moaner (I’m really not) anyway if we all agreed it would be boring

Still I’m sat out on patio, beer in hand, it’s still 22c (could be a lot worse) and this is what I love about summer

[mb018538]

12 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Wow - the clusters were right. How many times does that happen at that range? Can we cut out the “I told you so” stuff? Some folk consistently look for breakdowns - even a broken clock is correct twice a day!

 

Exactly. That sort of post isn’t really necessary. You can pick any chart to suit your narrative if you really want to. Like me picking the clusters from a day later that show 70% of members having high pressure dominating. Not so clear cut now is it? 

[Mike Poole]

So where do we stand today?  The last day of summer, if some are to be believed! It snowed on this day in 1975 and went on to be a cracking summer, I should remind you.

So, a look at the charts at T240 but on NH view:

The last one is the ECM mean so that isn't so illustrative of the position.  

I think it isn't a question of what is there, it is a question of what is not there, and that is massive height rises over Greenland.  So we are back where we are, partially locked down, with a cold and unsettled interlude to contend with, but which will pass in a week or two, I would hope.

We will see....