Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020

[damianslaw]

Last year we had a La Nina which was moderate and it didn't override Strat warming I think resulting in a cold April and May, and the cold early in Feb which didn't sustain itself though..  there was a WQBO which possibly had some effect on developments in Feb.. and MJO.. key factors. We have an EQBO this year and Strat warming is an unknown...many forecasts seem to be allowing forecast of a strong La Nina as a key overriding factor..  yet we don't know how strong La Nina may become and other factors can easily override.. weather is complex.. no magic formula.

[Griff]

The cancellation of winter has been delayed (perhaps)

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, Griff said:

The cancellation of winter has been delayed (perhaps)

Interesting!  Is that 0z or 12z ECM?  There is a new signal (well new for some!) and I reckon it is related to the ECM cluster with the blocked 4 wave pattern in the ECM clusters I’ve just posted in the MOD.  Interesting…

[Mapantz]

On 25/10/2021 at 21:01, Griff said:

The cancellation of winter has been delayed (perhaps)

I'd take these charts with a large pinch of a certain condiment..

If you look at the chart from the beginning of October, several members were going for a reversal around November 1st.

[Griff]

Just now, Mapantz said:

I'd take these charts with a large pinch of a certain condiment..

If you look at the chart from the beginning of October, several members were going for a reversal around November 1st.

That's the funniest thing I've ever heard, I take next week's charts with a pinch of salt!  

Cheers master Yoda!

[Mapantz]

On 25/10/2021 at 21:43, Griff said:

That's the funniest thing I've ever heard, I take next week's charts with a pinch of salt!  

Cheers master Yoda!

huh?

[weirpig]

Just now, Griff said:

That's the funniest thing I've ever heard, I take next week's charts with a pinch of salt!  

Cheers master Yoda!

To be fair that is one decent set right there.  Even the mean is good  SSW start of December  would set this thread alright   something to watch atleast 

[Mapantz]

On 25/10/2021 at 21:45, weirpig said:

Even the mean is good  SSW start of December  would set this thread alright   something to watch atleast 

No it doesn't?!

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

No it doesn't?!

No it doesn,t what?.  I cant see anypart of that quote that requires a no it doesnt response  please clarify 

Edited October 25, 2021 by weirpig

[Griff]

Just now, Mapantz said:

huh?

This will go off topic quickly, so I apologise in advance, but your comment was well intended but a little (actually very) patronising (42 and licenced to fly fast pointy jets here). Nobody is taking anything too seriously, no need for anyone to caution restraint, all just interesting to look at this range. 

Your point is taken but doesn't really add to the discussion. Why not show a chart to support your comment?  

[Mapantz]

On 25/10/2021 at 21:49, Griff said:

This will go off topic quickly, so I apologise in advance, but your comment was well intended but a little (actually very) patronising (42 and licenced to fly fast pointy jets here). Nobody is taking anything too seriously, no need for anyone to caution restraint, all just interesting to look at this range. 

Your point is taken but doesn't really add to the discussion. Why not show a chart to support your comment?  

How is it patronising?

The 10hPa chart posted here at the beginning of the month  had several ensemble members showing a reversal on November 1st. Now compare it to the chart you just posted..

I'm not sure why you find that fact patronising?

 

[Mapantz]

On 25/10/2021 at 21:49, weirpig said:

No it doesn,t what?.  I cant see anypart of that quote that requires a no it doesnt response  please clarify 

It doesn't show an SSW.

[weirpig]

Just now, Mapantz said:

It doesn't show an SSW.

Eh i didnt say it did.    Im a little bemused by your comment  to be honest  

[Mapantz]

On 25/10/2021 at 21:54, weirpig said:

Eh i didnt say it did.    Im a little bemused by your comment  to be honest  

Well what was this then?

Quote

Even the mean is good  SSW start of December  

Please clarify..

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

How is it patronising?

The 10hPa chart posted here at the beginning of the month  had several ensemble members showing a reversal on November 1st. Now compare it to the chart you just posted..

I'm not sure why you find that fact patronising?

 

I clearly owe you an apology, so sorry if I've offended you, but my last comment was barbed to be equally patronising, not pleasant to be on the receiving end...

No ecmwf zonal chart has to my knowledge been posted this autumn showing the support of the mean for a reversal? 

Edited October 25, 2021 by Griff

[weirpig]

5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Well what was this then?

Please clarify..

Seeing as my post was removed  i shall reword it  The mean does indeed not show a ssw of course it does not  however there are a few members that do indeed show a reversal as such  way out and all very much for fun  but if those members do gain traction over the coming weeks it would be nice  

 

[Blessed Weather]

12 minutes ago, weirpig said:

To be fair that is one decent set right there.  Even the mean is good  SSW start of December  would set this thread alright   something to watch atleast 

 

7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

No it doesn,t what?.  I acnt see anypart of that quote that requires a no it doesnt response  please clarify 

To add my tuppence worth, looking at the ECMWF chart posted by Cliff, it does NOT show a SSW at the start of December. Your post could therefore be misleading to many reading the thread. Of the 50 ensemble members used by the ECM, the mean was still showing SPV running at +20 m/s at the start of Dec. There were just 5 out of 50 members showing a reversal (negative value) of zonal wind at 10hPa/60N. Good to see the SPV pegged back, but no reversal in sight yet.

[weirpig]

5 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

 

To add my tuppence worth, looking at the ECMWF chart posted by Cliff, it does NOT show a SSW at the start of December. Your post could therefore be misleading to many reading the thread. Of the 50 ensemble members used by the ECM, the mean was still showing SPV running at +20 m/s at the start of Dec. There were just 5 out of 50 members showing a reversal (negative value) of zonal wind at 10hPa/60N. Good to see the SPV pegged back, but no reversal in sight yet.

Eh  what is the matter with you people  i never said the mean showed a SSW  i missed out a fullstop  sorry my schooling was awful   but it doesnt  take anyone of any major intellect to spot this   i was merely pointing out that a few show reversal winds towards the start of December  and a SSW at the start would be good.

Maybe instead of a rather curt response to my initial comment  a clarification could have been asked  instead of an abrupt reply.  No??

Edited October 25, 2021 by weirpig

[booferking]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

I'd take these charts with a large pinch of a certain condiment..

If you look at the chart from the beginning of October, several members were going for a reversal around November 1st.

Yea but what you can take from the majority of the updates is zonal wind 10hpa is shown a consistency of below norm no raging zonal wind being forecasted to date and long may it continue.

 

Edited October 25, 2021 by booferking

[Blessed Weather]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Eh  what is the matter with you people  i never said the mean showed a SSW  i missed out a fullstop  sorry my schooling was awful   but it doesnt  take anyone of any major intellect to spot this   i was merely pointing out that a few show reversal winds towards the start of December  and a SSW at the start would be good.

Maybe instead of a rather curt response to my initial comment  a clarification could have been asked  instead of an abrupt reply.  No??

Thanks for the explanation weirpig. I see what the problem was and yes, the missing full-stop changed the meaning of the post. But I fully accept that was unintentional. Onwards and upwards, or in the case of the SPV, hopefully downwards with zonal wind strength. Unfortunately GFS/GEFS forecasts today give no cheer over the next couple of weeks:

Source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_60N_10hpa.png

[weirpig]

Just now, Blessed Weather said:

Thanks for the explanation weirpig. I see what the problem was and yes, the missing full-stop changed the meaning of the post. But I fully accept that was unintentional. Onwards and upwards, or in the case of the SPV, hopefully downwards with zonal wind strength. Unfortunately GFS/GEFS forecasts today give no cheer over the next couple of weeks:

Source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_60N_10hpa.png

Thank You  and yes all for fun at this range    many more ups and downs in the coming months

[bluearmy]

10 hours ago, Mapantz said:

How is it patronising?

The 10hPa chart posted here at the beginning of the month  had several ensemble members showing a reversal on November 1st. Now compare it to the chart you just posted..

I'm not sure why you find that fact patronising?

 

Well obviously as we head towards verification, we will hone in on a target 

The zonal flow charts were pretty solid on a drop to 5/10 m/s.  The reality was 11m/s.  So yes, the longer range tool was a little over exuberant but not by very much. It still got the overall direction of travel correct and it threw 25 rather than a bull.

encouraging to see the latest chart not getting behind a strong SPV but the spread is so large that I wouldn’t take anything from it at all and wait to see what Thursday brings. 

Edited October 26, 2021 by bluearmy

[philglossop]

I have to be honest- but the QBO strengthening continues into the Trop. Back along I was concerned it could have failed but it hasn’t. I’d be surprised if we get a October figure close towards -20 (my gut thinks it’s going to be about -17/-18 but I’d be happier if it delays until after winter. 
 

Whilst it’s been a quick switch from WQBO the desent has been relatively smooth. 

[Griff]

Mustn't grumble! 

Don't @ me you groovie cats! 

[sebastiaan1973]

Thanks Griff. We don't see a stratospheric vortex on fire. New warming after 15th of november.