Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020

[Griff]

There you go @Dennis but you won't thank me for it... 

[Dennis]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

There you go @Dennis but you won't thank me for it... 

@Griff fun in the run 

[sebastiaan1973]

*Stratosphere Watch* Polar Vortex running strong, but first signs of trouble now arise, as the winter season is just around the corner » Severe Weather Europe (severe-weather.eu)

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/strong-polar-vortex-winter-season-usa-europe-update-fa/

[Don]

2 hours ago, Griff said:

There you go @Dennis but you won't thank me for it... 

Oh..... 

[Blessed Weather]

18 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Out of interest, do we know if 1975 had a SSW/attempted SSW in Jan or Feb. 

According to Dr. Amy Butler's paper A sudden stratospheric warming compendium there wasn't a SSW in 1975. Sorry, don't know whether there was an attempted event.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

According to Dr. Amy Butler's paper A sudden stratospheric warming compendium there wasn't a SSW in 1975. Sorry, don't know whether there was an attempted event.

that appears to need updating...

[Yarmy]

3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

that appears to need updating...

That's the original paper. The online version appears to have been updated last in Feb 2020.

NOAA CSL: Chemistry & Climate Processes: SSWC

CSL.NOAA.GOV

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NOAA CSL: Advancing scientific understanding of the chemical and physical processes that affect Earth's atmospheric composition and climate.

 

[DavidS]

I’ll have whatever this particular CFS run is having please!

[Yarmy]

Just now, DavidS said:

I’ll have whatever this particular CFS run is having please!

Ha, it looks like that's a bias-corrected run too. What on earth does the unaltered version look like?

[Catacol]

Looks like December is returning to script - trough in week 1 broadly followed by phase of +NAO. Beyond that the shape of the vortex is going to be hugely important....and as long as ENS keeps throwing out a strong Ural High and/or Kara Ridge along with low pressure hanging on over the Aleutians and into Alaska then a potential SSW remains a definite possibility.

 

[Griff]

A lot of scatter 

[Premiere Neige]

Any news on the Canadian warming the ECM (I think) was toying with? I'd look myself but no idea where to find those charts!

[Don]

54 minutes ago, Griff said:

A lot of scatter 

Hmm, not great though.

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Premier Neige said:

Any news on the Canadian warming the ECM (I think) was toying with? I'd look myself but no idea where to find those charts!

It’s still happening and over the next 10 days the spv is displaced to the laptev sea area … however it does seem to then head towards the pole by end week 2 

EC46 shows the anomoly wanes by week 3 and no warming’s evident across the NH thereafter 

[Don]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

EC46 shows the anomoly wanes by week 3 and no warming’s evident across the NH thereafter 

A tad disappointing but plenty of time for things to develop favourably yet....

[Premiere Neige]

9 hours ago, bluearmy said:

It’s still happening and over the next 10 days the spv is displaced to the laptev sea area … however it does seem to then head towards the pole by end week 2 

EC46 shows the anomoly wanes by week 3 and no warming’s evident across the NH thereafter 

Thanks BA...

[Catacol]

Looking for a tropical precursor? ECM at 240

 

And here was the pattern on Jan 15 2018

 

Not quite as sharp a wave 2 tropospheric squeeze on ECM as we got back in Jan 2018….but definite similarities. Ural high, deep Atlantic trough running up against it…deep trough North Pacific running up against a US ridge. First sign of a possible mid Jan SSW?

[Singularity]

To be honest I’m a bit puzzled by how little stratospheric response is being shown to the Atlantic trough / Urals High setup. Especially by GFS which is usually trigger-happy with it.

Perhaps the alignment isn’t quite right... at least in the modelled version of events.

[Griff]

@Dennis what's the latest, coupling or not?

[Dennis]

1 hour ago, Griff said:

@Dennis what's the latest, coupling or not?

very short one  it seems

[Catacol]

Lower strat vortex splits this week, 150hpa up to 50hpa. Short term, no significant impacts given overall coherence of the vortex, but good to see that sufficient trop impacts have already managed to dent it!

[SqueakheartLW]

Do we have early hints at a possible stratospheric warming event at 10hpa starting to show up at long range. The GFS seems to think so

Peak warming temp     Members of 12z GFS

-36C                                 07,13,17,21
-32C                                 05,14,26
-28C                                 02,03,06,12,15,18,19,20
-24C                                 Op,01,08,09,11,16,22,24,25,29
-20C                                 Ct,10,23,27,28
-16C                                 04,30

Only a modest warming showing up at present but every member had a warming of some degree after 300 hours away

Below are the warmest members starting with the -20 set

-20C

Here are the even better -16C charts

Although this is a start we really need those peak warming temps to get over 0C to really have a chance to disrupt or even destroy the polar vortex. This current level of warming would only slow it down a little bit and at best could put us back down to average 10hpa zonal winds or maybe a little below average.

[Griff]

Oh joy 

[Don]

52 minutes ago, Griff said:

Oh joy 

Nope..... 

[Griff]

@Dennis what do we have here... 

Just now, Griff said: