Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020

[SqueakheartLW]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

hi
whats the difference between wave 1 and wave 2 please?

 

Wave 1 is when the attack on the vortex comes from 1 specific point which acts to push the vortex off the pole. It nearly always results in a displaced vortex unless the wave 1 is so big that it ends up forcing the vortex apart anyway but even with the expected displacement the vortex usually gets weakened by it.

Wave 2 usually happens from opposite sides of the vortex and acts like a pincer on the vortex. If this is not strong enough the vortex will still be weakened like with a wave 1 attack but will very likely not stray too far off the pole. A stronger wave 2 will squeeze the vortex in the middle and force it apart into 2 smaller vortexes, a split, with warmer temperatures and high pressure between them.

For UK cold the split is much better than the displacement option. Most displacement events usually start with a warming on the Eurasian side which is bad news for the UK as this generally pushes the vortex over to the Canada/Greenland side of the pole which fires up the tropospheric vortex beneath and puts us into mild Atlantic zonality instead and sends all of the cold to Canada and the USA.

The split vortex usually ends up with 2 smaller vortexes which often end up landing over the Pacific and parts of Europe with high pressure between them. The region under high pressure often from East USA, through Greenland and the Arctic through to East Asia promotes a lot of blocking up here setting Europe up for a cross polar flow from Siberia to us basically putting us in the freezer.

The coldest conditions usually settle under the region of the polar vortex or vortexes in the case of the split version. This means Canada/USA under displacement and the Pacific/Europe under the split version.

[SqueakheartLW]

My daily stratospheric update is good news all round for both GFS 06z and GEM 00z. Take a look at the figures below and you'll soon see why.

Temp Member GFS                                                                                                  Temp Member GEM              
-32                                                                                                                               -32     14
-28                                                                                                                               -28     07,20
-24                                                                                                                               -24     Op,01,04,06,09,16,19
-20                                                                                                                               -20     Ct,02,10,12,13,15,17
-16      Op,02,09,12,13,24,27,29,30                                                                        -16     03,11
-12      Ct,01,03,04,05,06,07,08,10,11,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,23,25,26,28    -12     08,18
-8        22                                                                                                                     -8       05                                  

Today's Average Warming Max GFS = -13.42C                      Today's Average Warming Max GEM = -20.91C

Yesterday GFS                                      = -16.58C                      Yesterday GEM                                      = -23.09C

Both the GFS and GEM have upped the warming levels and finally it is looking more and more likely this warming is going to take place and with upgrades to the warming level too this increases the chances of a positive outcome from the warming.

Not only that the GFS is now toying with the idea of a further warming near the end of it's run on some members now which could be the final blow to the vortex.

Best Chart from GEM 00z Today

Best Charts From GFS 06z Today

All of these feature the 2nd warming too.

Member 9

Warming 1                                                Warming 2

Member 22

Warming 1                                                Warming 2

Member 23

Warming 1                                                Warming 2

Member 26

Warming 1                                                Warming 2

Member 28

Warming 1                                                Warming 2

Member 29

Warming 1                                                Warming 2

[mushymanrob]

27 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Wave 1 is when the attack on the vortex comes from 1 specific point which acts to push the vortex off the pole. It nearly always results in a displaced vortex unless the wave 1 is so big that it ends up forcing the vortex apart anyway but even with the expected displacement the vortex usually gets weakened by it.

Wave 2 usually happens from opposite sides of the vortex and acts like a pincer on the vortex. If this is not strong enough the vortex will still be weakened like with a wave 1 attack but will very likely not stray too far off the pole. A stronger wave 2 will squeeze the vortex in the middle and force it apart into 2 smaller vortexes, a split, with warmer temperatures and high pressure between them.

For UK cold the split is much better than the displacement option. Most displacement events usually start with a warming on the Eurasian side which is bad news for the UK as this generally pushes the vortex over to the Canada/Greenland side of the pole which fires up the tropospheric vortex beneath and puts us into mild Atlantic zonality instead and sends all of the cold to Canada and the USA.

The split vortex usually ends up with 2 smaller vortexes which often end up landing over the Pacific and parts of Europe with high pressure between them. The region under high pressure often from East USA, through Greenland and the Arctic through to East Asia promotes a lot of blocking up here setting Europe up for a cross polar flow from Siberia to us basically putting us in the freezer.

The coldest conditions usually settle under the region of the polar vortex or vortexes in the case of the split version. This means Canada/USA under displacement and the Pacific/Europe under the split version.

thank you very much, appreciated

[Frostbite1980]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

My daily stratospheric update is good news all round for both GFS 06z and GEM 00z. Take a look at the figures below and you'll soon see why.

Temp Member GFS                                                                                                  Temp Member GEM              
-32                                                                                                                               -32     14
-28                                                                                                                               -28     07,20
-24                                                                                                                               -24     Op,01,04,06,09,16,19
-20                                                                                                                               -20     Ct,02,10,12,13,15,17
-16      Op,02,09,12,13,24,27,29,30                                                                        -16     03,11
-12      Ct,01,03,04,05,06,07,08,10,11,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,23,25,26,28    -12     08,18
-8        22                                                                                                                     -8       05                                  

Today's Average Warming Max GFS = -13.42C                      Today's Average Warming Max GEM = -20.91C

Yesterday GFS                                      = -16.58C                      Yesterday GEM                                      = -23.09C

Both the GFS and GEM have upped the warming levels and finally it is looking more and more likely this warming is going to take place and with upgrades to the warming level too this increases the chances of a positive outcome from the warming.

Not only that the GFS is now toying with the idea of a further warming near the end of it's run on some members now which could be the final blow to the vortex.

Best Chart from GEM 00z Today

Best Charts From GFS 06z Today

All of these feature the 2nd warming too.

Member 9

Warming 1                                                Warming 2

Member 22

Warming 1                                                Warming 2

Member 23

Warming 1                                                Warming 2

Member 26

Warming 1                                                Warming 2

Member 28

Warming 1                                                Warming 2

Member 29

Warming 1                                                Warming 2

Hi mate, this looks good but is this warming just pushing the PV towards Greenland and Canada which is something we do not want to see but more of a split like you mentioned above? Also the PV seems to still be organised and not stretched like one would like to see?

[Catacol]

On 23/12/2021 at 21:25, feb1991blizzard said:

@Catacol Are you concerned by Knocker's post above?, i must admit you usually see some members showing an SSW at any given point, at this point of the year, that is probably the strongest signal against a Jan SSW i have ever seen.

Yep. Concerned, and even more concerned because some of the key strat players out on Twitter have been very quiet indeed. We have a Nino style circulation intent on staying put, and the flux we are seeing just isn’t heading poleward enough. There is time for things to change we know very well, but by now I had expected to see more members seeing a significantly perturbed vortex. Right now the Nina/eQBO combo doesn’t look to be clicking.

If we don’t get an SSW or at least a perturbed vortex then it could be a very grim 8 weeks coming up for winter hunters. The MJO is going to fade soon, and we look to be about to see a colder pattern hitting the US, pumping up the jet stream without any hint of blocking in place over the Atlantic. And that feels flat (or flatter at least), stormy and not cold. Funny how things can shift so quickly. I always felt this week between Xmas and New Year was going to be key and we need to see something suggesting strat disruption very soon….

[Catacol]

On 23/12/2021 at 22:19, summer blizzard said:

My primary concern is that the atmosphere is strongly coupled to a La Nina favouring a stronger vortex late season. I can forsee a situation like winter 2012 whereby we get an attempt, less than a month of settled/cold weather and then the pattern reverts to a +AO.

Right now the atmosphere is not coupled to Nina. GLAAM is too high and pacific convection has been more Nino than Nina. It makes for an unusual seasonal context. If it stays this way then our hope in terms of winter synoptics is Feb 96. But I’m not sure a Feb 96 is particularly likely in these more modern times.

[MP-R]

8 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Right now the atmosphere is not coupled to Nina. GLAAM is too high and pacific convection has been more Nino than Nina. It makes for an unusual seasonal context. If it stays this way then our hope in terms of winter synoptics is Feb 96. But I’m not sure a Feb 96 is particularly likely in these more modern times.

Or if it is, the synoptics might not deliver quite the same surface conditions...

What I’d like to know is, if this La Niña is not behaving like a conventional Niña, how might that affect an El Niño should we transition into one, and how that might affect the PV later on this season and into the next.

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Right now the atmosphere is not coupled to Nina. GLAAM is too high and pacific convection has been more Nino than Nina. It makes for an unusual seasonal context. If it stays this way then our hope in terms of winter synoptics is Feb 96. But I’m not sure a Feb 96 is particularly likely in these more modern times.

While there's no doubt that the intra tropical signal is not that of a strong Nina (active mjo, high glaam) it's worth saying that I'm not sure the extra tropical impact is out of kilter. The US for example is seeing a strongly negative PNA, the pattern over western Europe has tended to base blocking over/west of the UK (until this week).

Edited December 27, 2021 by summer blizzard

[Chesil View]

I,m beginning  to wonder if the strat trop disconnect is such a good thing. 

If we're going to to have long fetch southwesterlies and low after low skimming across the Atlantic,  there's no real difference to a strongly connected strat and trop in our corner of the world at the moment.

[sebastiaan1973]

https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1475634932932304901

Seems to me, there the signal is growing there won't be any cold winter weather in at least January. 

[Benny123]

2 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1475634932932304901

Seems to me, there the signal is growing there won't be any cold winter weather in at least January. 

December Synoptics pointed towards a cold, blocked pattern but look what happened. Trust nothing. 

[mountain shadow]

37 minutes ago, Benny123 said:

December Synoptics pointed towards a cold, blocked pattern but look what happened. Trust nothing. 

But it is nearly always the case that when blocking is forecast we get zonal, but when zonal is forecast, we get zonal.

[SqueakheartLW]

My daily stratospheric warming update and today I am featuring data for the potential further warming I mentioned the GFS was hinting at in the later stages of its output and today there is a bigger signal for this. I have created an extra table of data to show the members that have this further warming as well as the warming max temp as well.

WARMING 1 MAX
Temp Member GFS                                                                                    Temp Member GEM                                        
-28                                                                                                                 -28     11,19
-24                                                                                                                 -24     03,12,14
-20      24                                                                                                       -20     Ct,04,06,07,08,10,13,15,16,17,18,20
-16      Ct,01,02,03,05,09,11,13,14,15,16,17,18,21,25,27,28,29,30      -16     Op,01,02,05,09
-12      Op,04,06,07,08,10,12,19,20,22,23,26                                          -12                                                                      

WARMING 2 MAX
Temp Member GFS                                                    Temp Member GEM                                                    
None 06,23,28                                                             None 01,02,04,07,08,10,12,13,14,16,17,18,19,20
-36     03,05,21,24,26,30                                             -36     11,15
-32     11,12,17,18,19,25                                             -32     03,06
-28     01,15,20,27                                                       -28      Ct,05
-24     Op,04,08,10,13                                                 -24    
-20     09,22                                                                  -20    
-16     Ct,29                                                                  -16      09
-12     02,07,14,16                                                       -12                                                                                  

Warming 1 Av Max GFS = -15.09C                           Warming 1 Av Max GEM = -20.36C

Warming 2 Av Max GFS = -27.14C                           Warming 2 Av Max GEM = -29.71C

Still a decent 1st warming showing on the GFS today even if the average max temp today is slightly less warm than yesterday's value. GEM's value is the warmest so far so very much still in with a good shout of a warming here.

The most impressive upgrade to today is how both GFS and GEM have latched onto the idea of a further warming. GFS only had 5 or 6 members showing it yesterday, today it has 28 of 31 showing it, although to varying degrees of warming. GEM had none yesterday, now 7 of 21 members are showing it in the later stages of the run.

Best charts from both GFS and GEM

GFS - Member 7

Warming 1                                                Warming 2

GEM Member 9

Warming 1                                                Warming 2

[Catacol]

18 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I,m beginning  to wonder if the strat trop disconnect is such a good thing. 

If we're going to to have long fetch southwesterlies and low after low skimming across the Atlantic,  there's no real difference to a strongly connected strat and trop in our corner of the world at the moment.

I’d much rather have a well connected regime with wave 2 forcing acting on the middle stratosphere. That then would guarantee frictional downwelling of negative anomalies. And the disconnect also implies that the strat is remaining proof against tropospheric forcing, hence flux all heading poleward. I’m sure a bright strat expert will explain again at the end of the season what is causing this, but right now our eQBO is not acting as the historical records suggest it should in terms of strat disruption. The standing wave in the pacific, sustaining a Nino style sense of amplification, may actually be working against us. A 1980s style circulation may have produced very different results - but not any longer…..

[knocker]

The role of wave–wave interactions in sudden stratospheric warming formation

Abstract. The effects of wave–wave interactions on sudden stratospheric warming formation are investigated using an idealized atmospheric general circulation model, in which tropospheric heating perturbations of zonal wave numbers 1 and 2 are used to produce planetary-scale wave activity.  Zonal wave–wave interactions are removed at different vertical extents of the atmosphere in order to examine the sensitivity of stratospheric circulation to local changes in wave–wave interactions. We show that the effects of wave–wave interactions on sudden warming formation, including sudden warming frequencies, are strongly dependent on the wave number of the tropospheric forcing and the vertical levels where wave–wave interactions are removed. Significant changes in sudden warming frequencies are evident when wave–wave interactions are removed even when the lower-stratospheric wave forcing does not change, highlighting the fact that the upper stratosphere is not a passive recipient of wave forcing from below. We find that while wave–wave interactions are required in the troposphere and lower stratosphere to produce displacements when wave number 2 heating is used, both splits and displacements can be produced without wave–wave interactions in the troposphere and lower stratosphere when the model is forced by wave number 1 heating.We suggest that the relative strengths of wave number 1 and 2 vertical wave flux entering the stratosphere largely determine the split and displacement ratios when wave number 2 forcing is used but not wave number 1.

https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrIQhLfCsthU70AgQx3Bwx.;_ylu=Y29sbwMEcG9zAzEEdnRpZAMEc2VjA3Ny/RV=2/RE=1640725344/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2fwcd.copernicus.org%2farticles%2f1%2f93%2f2020%2fwcd-1-93-2020.pdf/RK=2/RS=EZXj_.HqqyGwvr6BxRTQau1csoY-

[Catacol]

Here we go. Didn’t take long for someone with proper knowledge to come forward with a proposed explanation. Ridges and troughs indeed in the wrong places….

 

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Here we go. Didn’t take long for someone with proper knowledge to come forward with a proposed explanation. Ridges and troughs indeed in the wrong places….

Oh dear.....

With comparisons now being made with the PV of doom winter, 2021/22 really could be in serious trouble now for those hoping for cold!

[Penicuikblizzard]

Oh well on the bright side heating bills should be lower which will help a lot of people right now…every cloud!!

[SqueakheartLW]

16 minutes ago, Don said:

Oh dear.....

With comparisons now being made with the PV of doom winter, 2021/22 really could be in serious trouble now for those hoping for cold!

It's not only the northern hemisphere though. The southern vortex had one of it's latest in the season reversals to summer pattern on the record.

Position    Date                  10hpa               Position   Date                  10hpa
1                15/12/2010       -0.65                 23             20/11/1992      -1.18
2                14/12/2020       -0.24                 24             18/11/1982      -0.30
3                13/12/2021       -2.20                 25             17/11/1980      -0.24
4                11/12/2015       -3.06                 26             17/11/1979      -0.79
5                07/12/2001       -0.31                 27             17/11/1997      -0.94
6                07/12/1998       -1.79                 28             17/11/1981      -1.19
7                05/12/1999       -1.72                 29             17/11/2017      -3.54
8                04/12/1990       -0.34                 30             16/11/2004      -1.46
9                04/12/1996       -2.07                 31             13/11/1991      -0.37
10              03/12/2006       -3.58                 32             13/11/1986      -5.47
11              01/12/1987       -0.49                 33             11/11/1994      -1.34
12              01/12/2008       -1.12                 34             10/11/1989      -0.14
13              27/11/2007       -0.58                 35             10/11/2005      -0.65
14              25/11/1985       -1.89                 36             10/11/2016      -2.07
15              24/11/2011       -0.41                 37             09/11/2019      -2.42
16              24/11/1995       -0.93                 38             06/11/1984      -2.24
17              24/11/2018       -2.21                 39             05/11/2012      -0.45
18              23/11/2003       -0.57                 40             04/11/2000      -0.95
19              23/11/2009       -2.35                 41             02/11/2013      -1.14
20              22/11/2014       -0.26                 42             01/11/2002      -4.60
21              22/11/1993       -0.53                 43             27/10/1988      -1.01
22              21/11/1983       -1.10                                                                         

It seems clear that there is a general pattern favouring weaker easterlies and stronger westerlies in the stratosphere at present and this is also clearly showing up with the QBO too.

You only have to look at this and see how quickly the next WQBO is appearing and what initially looked like an EQBO lasting till at least the mid to late summer is now looking more likely to struggle to get much into the up coming spring.

Part of me wonders if this rapid appearance of the WQBO above 20hpa is because that area had general easterlies right from May 2019 more or less uninterrupted right through to just recently and that region was long overdue some sustained westerlies.

If this is the case then maybe the 20hpa and below region which generally dragged on with WQBO for so long could get to keep easterlies for longer than expected to compensate here too.

These CFS forecasts have not looked great really all of the time and most of their runs have been going to the top of the chart and some way above the highest speeds ever recorded. CFS is adamant we are going to be heading off into "Polar Vortex Of Doom Returns" or if some of their runs come off "Polar Vortex Of Doom 2.0" meaning bigger than the original.

GFS however seems to have other ideas

Many of these charts lately have shown zonal wind reductions high up and this latest one has the biggest negative anomalies so far, not a reversal showing yet but definitely a significant reduction and this particular chart is supporting what I posted earlier with the 2 warmings idea with the 2 negative anomaly areas showing up.

The GFS 12z Op run as an example below

Warming 1

The first warming peaks at -12C. I would personally prefer if this peak was going to end up above 0C but it seems we are going to fall short of this with the first warming at least/

Warming 2

The second warming peaks here at -20C. Still early days on this one and it could upgrade in terms of the peak warming temperature like the first warming did too and with the vortex already hit somewhat by warming 1 then it would probably not need such a big warming to finish the vortex off.

If we want to save winter 2021/2022 then lets keep our eyes focused on what is happening in the stratosphere as this appears to be our best and probably only remaining thing we now have left since the troposphere doesn't want to give us the pattern we are looking for for the UK at least.

[Don]

Thanks for the information @SqueakheartLW  It seems a bit concerning (not only for this winter but also future winters) with the erratic behaviour of the QBO since 2015?  Also, that CFS forecast looks particularly alarming!  Just as well the GFS does not seem to be following at this stage.

[SqueakheartLW]

Another daily SSW update for everyone to read and like the previous days the warming seems to be nailed on, how it affects the vortex I feel is still to be decided however. Here are todays figures in regards to the first warming as well as the potential second warming further down the line.

WARMING 1 MAX
Temp Member GFS                                                                                        Temp Member GEM                                                        
-28                                                                                                                         -28 07,19
-24                                                                                                                         -24 01,04,14
-20 01,03,09,14,21,24,25,27,30                                                                        -20 Op,Ct,02,03,05,06,08,09,10,11,12,13,15,18,20
-16 Op,Ct,02,04,05,06,07,08,10,11,12,13,15,16,17,18,19,20,22,23,26,28  -16 16,17
-12 29                                                                                                                    -12                                                                                  

WARMING 2 MAX
Temp Member GFS                                                                        Temp Member GEM                                        
None Op,11,14,22,25                                                                     None Ct,01,03,04,05,07,08,09,10,14,17,19
-36     02,03,06,21,27,30                                                                 -36     02,13,15
-32     20,26                                                                                       -32     06,11,12,16,18
-28     Ct,08,10,13,24                                                                       -28     20
-24     01,09,12                                                                                 -24
-20     15,16,29                                                                                 -20
-16     07                                                                                            -16
-12     05,17,18,23,28                                                                       -12
-8       04,19                                                                                       -8                                                                        

Warming 1 Max Av GFS = -17.55C                                               Warming 1 Max Av GEM = -20.91C

Warming 2 Max Av GFS = -20.77C                                               Warming 2 Max Av GEM = -32.89C

Summary

A bit of a mixed update today to be fair. Both GFS and GEM have downgraded the level of the warming maximum in the first warming which is unfortunate to see and in regards to the potential second warming the GEM has almost gone off the idea again with a very weak warming now showing on average with the few members that want to show a second warming too.

The good news from the update is that the GFS is still very much keen on the idea of a second warming and it has really upped the signal for this with a big increase in the warming max average from -27.14C yesterday to -20.77C today but with a whole range of outcomes from -36C right up to -8C.

Best Charts From Both GEM And GFS

GEM

GEM Members 16 and 17 for single biggest first warmings

GEM Member 20 for best double warming

Warming 1                                                Warming 2

GFS

GFS Member 29 for best first warming

GFS Members 4 and 19 for best first and second warmings

Warming 1                                                Warming 2

Warming 1                                                Warming 2

[SqueakheartLW]

Daily stratospheric update from me today and as I was going through the charts I was hoping for a nice upgrade to the first warming as well as an increase to the signal for a possible further warming. How disappointed I was when I assessed the charts for todays GFS 06z and GEM 00z.

WARMING 1 MAX
Temp    Member GFS                                                        Temp    Member GEM                         
-24                                                                                        -24        Op,01,03,04,07,10,11,14,19
-20        Op,Ct,02,03,06,08,09,10,11,12,14,15,16          -20        Ct,02,05,06,08,09
              17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,28,29,30                       13,15,16,17,18,20
-16        01,04,05,07,13,27                                                 -16       12                                               

WARMING 2 MAX
Temp    Member GFS                                                         Temp    Member GEM                         
None    16,24,25,30                                                            None    01,03,04,06,07,08,09,10,11
-36        06,14,15,18                                                                          12,13,14,15,16,17,18,20
-32        02,08,11,20,21                                                       -36        05,19
-28        Op,Ct,07,17,22,26,28,29                                      -32        Ct,02
-24        01,03,04,09,10,19
-20        05,12,13,27
-16        23                                                                                                                                            

Warming 1 Max Average GFS = -19.25C                         Warming 1 Max Average GEM = -21.46C

Warming 2 Max Average GFS = -27.42C                         Warming 2 Max Average GEM = -34.00C

Bad news in general today as we have seen downgrades across the board with both the first and second warmings. The GEM has cooled the first warming down slightly from -20.91C yesterday to -21.46C today but the main bad point from the GEM is how much the second warming has been downgraded. GEM was less keen for it to start with but today only 4 members have any form of second warming on them and these are very tame at best with just 2 ensemble members on -32C and 2 more on -36C. I am very disappointed with GEM today.

GFS has generally downgraded as well. The first warming has cooled down from -17.55C yesterday to -19.25C today and although it still has a definite signal for the second warming this has seen a big downgrade today from -20.77C yesterday to -27.42C today. It is now starting to look more like a warming that is going to do very little to disrupt the vortex in any way now as many of the ensemble members in both models keep the vortex very much intact.

Best charts from both GFS and GEM

Tried my best to find good charts from both models but more of a struggle today.

GEM

GEM Member 12 - Single biggest warming

GEM Control Run and Member 2 - "Best" double warmings

I say best double warmings but with how tame the second warming signal was on GEM today this is the best I could find

Warming 1                                                Warming 2

 

Warming 1                                                Warming 2

GFS

I fared better on GFS for finding what I wanted but even with GFS the selection was smaller

GFS Members 13 and 27 - Best double warmings

Warming 1                                                Warming 2

Warming 1                                                Warming 2

GFS Member 23 - Best Triple Warming

You may be thinking I'm crazy here showing a set of charts with a triple warming but this is exactly what Member 23 does.

Warming 1                                                Warming 2                                              Warming 3

Now who wouldn't mind this GFS Member 23 coming off as I certainly want to bank this particular member today.

[Don]

@SqueakheartLWOh dear, looking like a step back today!  Hopefully, the warming will upgrade again during the next few days?

[karyo]

It looks to me, that the chances of a SSW happening at a time that can salvage what is left of this winter, are fading fast! 

[Don]

On 31/12/2021 at 10:14, karyo said:

It looks to me, that the chances of a SSW happening at a time that can salvage what is left of this winter, are fading fast! 

Winter 2021/22 one for the bin?!  Not looking great is it!