Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[sheikhy]

Can someone explain to me how ecm goes from looking the best to the worst at 192 hours

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Can someone explain to me how ecm goes from looking the best to the worst at 192 hours

Because as Steve said it battle ground and we are on the wrong side of the battle this time. Look at nhp. Look at where it could sit. Look at how much deeper it is on this run and then with just a few small changes it would look very different. we’re talking about output that is t192-216 away.

[booferking]

Its complete block fest everywhere except uk still able to find itself with a cat 5 hurricane day 9 on EC.

[northwestsnow]

Next please EC...

Day 8 onwards looks awful...

[KTtom]

Really dont understand the interest in a battleground scenario over the uk, we end up just as ecm shows, wet and windy! Yes there is potential, but we all know where it will end up for the uk...right in the middle!

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Its complete block fest everywhere except uk still able to find itself with a cat 5 hurricane day 9 on EC.

Looking through the gfs perbs there are about 3 out of the 30 that resemble what ecm has suggested at t216.  

[northwestsnow]

Would be sickening if that EC det is anywhere near right.

Praying its wrong !!

[TSNWK]

Nice set of overnights with a swing back to cold. 
 

re ECM: I would be surprised if we see a 953mb low in the Irish Sea at day 9 let’s be generous and make it 983 still a whopper of a low and probably enough to push the swing back in our favour by supporting a little trough disruption further west against the high to the east.

on balance I think most coldies would have taken what the overnight runs dished out

 

[daz_4]

Yep, as expected. That pattern won't bring anything good if it verifies.

[sheikhy]

Lets be totally honest here the ecm has completely lost the plot from 192 hours onwards!!!not worried about it at all!!!lovely hurricane at 216 hours though!!!upgrades before that from all 3 models!!!

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Lets be totally honest here the ecm has completely lost the plot from 192 hours onwards!!!not worried about it at all!!!lovely hurricane at 216 hours though!!!upgrades before that from all 3 models!!!

EC seems determined to find the worst outcome ....

It is subtly different to the slayer at 144 so I'm not overly mithered but would like to see something more palatable this evening, or just drier will do !

Had enough rain to last a life time round here.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A lot of focus on t192 ECM here this morning? I’ve woken up to cold upgrade all round beforehand with good similarities in direction.  UKMO loading up nicely.  Very pleased this morning.

As regards to the ECM I would anticipate looking at the t168 that the LP would move more SE into Europe. The AZH retreats SOUTHwest too and quickly for me and with the little trough over Italy that seems the route.  It’s still FI so plenty of action to come 

 

BFTP

 

Edited November 26, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[northwestsnow]

This is were it all goes wrong on EC...

I didn't think it looked to bad here at 168...

Good job I kept quiet as the trough just drops due south and gives us a deluge.

 

[mountain shadow]

Yesterday's ECM had the trough to the SW, now it's over us. If we can keep moving it East with subsequent runs, we're in business. 

In terms of the hemispheric pattern though  it's still pretty good for the start of Winter.

[danthetan]

From a cold perspective, I think the best we can hope for is for the trough to sink further east keeping the UK in a colder northerly flow and the atlantic ridge building in over the top of the trough and linking with the ridge over europe west russia. As this is all still 6 days away where that trough sinks is always going to chop and change. 

[IDO]

I am surprised people still care about D8-10 ECM charts as they are eternal in blowing up highs and lows. The pattern is the core issue that is important. All models aboard that trough squeezing between the Atlantic and Russian block and the UK is in the crush zone. Thankfully ECM has tweaked the sinking feature further east and greater alignment that way and some improvements and that could be fine?

Looking at d8 on the gefs and there is a clear signal the op (and control) are driving the ens towards this scenario:

So, maybe some clarity, though the envelop remains hazy as to the precise drop zone?

The op and control leading the mean in F1 so the op is a fair rep for the ensemble mean going forward. Cool but nothing wintry as the NH is very benign with no forcing just the ebb and flow of the three NH-highs:

London ens>> 

Edited November 26, 2020 by IDO

[sheikhy]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

This is were it all goes wrong on EC...

I didn't think it looked to bad here at 168...

Good job I kept quiet as the trough just drops due south and gives us a deluge.

 

Even  the evolution between 144 and 168 hours is weird!!i expected a stronger high around the norway region and pushing a bit more into the uk but it didnt happen!!anyway a lovely frosty start here already!!❄

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 0z I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we get an early taste of wintry weather during early / mid dec..indeed I will be very surprised..and disappointed if we don’t!  ️ 

[sheikhy]

Mean on the ecm looks slightly better!!probably a few more with a more continental influence between 168 and 192 hours?!!!think the 12zs are gona be a whopper

Edited November 26, 2020 by sheikhy

[Sky Full]

1 hour ago, booferking said:

Its complete block fest everywhere except uk still able to find itself with a cat 5 hurricane day 9 on EC.

The occupants of Gwrych Castle better hope that ECM +216h chart doesn’t happen......or they’ll all be crying ‘Get me out of here...!’    You can just about make out the UK under that dartboard - something much more akin to the GFS than the ECM......

 

Edited November 26, 2020 by Sky Full

[northwestsnow]

Mean is OK...

The signal to remove Euro heights is the glaring positive for coldies...

As ever was coldies might need a bit of luck elsewhere to bring cold weather to our soggy shores..

Edited November 26, 2020 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

Det is an outlier.

Phew !

[Tim Bland]

When we see a hurricane (like the One shown in the ECM at day 6) 99% of the time it is down graded. If this happens there’s more chance of the cold side winning or it becoming a slider. Have a oook at ( almost 3 years ago to the day - ) 10th Dec 2017. Up to 15cm fell from a line Oxford to Birmingham 

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Det is an outlier.

Phew !

We knew that though didnt we mate!!better 12z coming up i think!!!

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Det is an outlier.

Phew !

Unfortunately the control agrees with the op. Never a good sign. I know from bitter experience never to rule out an outlandish ecm op when it goes against cold.