Model output discussion - into the start of Winter

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

We knew that though didnt we mate!!better 12z coming up i think!!!

I'm not entirely sure shaky !

Fascinating outputs at the moment...fingers crossed we see some wintry synoptics ..

I'd be happy with foggy/frosty personally...

In a warming world frost seems more difficult to come by.This is a good time of year for frost under the right set up...

 

[nick sussex]

The ECM manages to hoof the ball over the bar with an open goal in front of it.

It blows up the low and does a GFS special. Amidst the ongoing drama the models do seem to agree on the overall pattern with low pressure disrupting near or over the UK . 

Blocking to the east and nw , the bit in the middle as in the UK could have a range of solutions from some snow to Noah turning up in his Ark !

 

[cheshire snow]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm not entirely sure shaky !

Fascinating outputs at the moment...fingers crossed we see some wintry synoptics ..

I'd be happy with foggy/frosty personally...

In a warming world frost seems more difficult to come by.This is a good time of year for frost under the right set up...

 

Second consecutive morning of car deicing here

C.S

 

[mb018538]

As others have noted - ECM op was a bit extreme in blowing up that low pressure next week! That said, the general trend is to turn more unsettled as we head into next week, with the wettest weather likely to be in western areas closer to low pressure. 

[Mr Frost]

Morning all!

Still hoping for something wintry to arrive from the NW/N during the first three weeks of December - this current Easterly breeze can do one!  Snowfall only please from that direction! 

Overnight into Friday will be very chilly again for most (probably the coldest night of this wee spell) - risk of fog/freezing fog forming for a few of us. (Big fan of freezing fog scenes)

Friday snapshot 03:00 (All charts below from the UKV)

 

Looking further into the weekend could be quite a pleasant day for Newquay with sunshine and temperature of 12/13C! Heathrow could see 10/11C.

Saturday snapshot 15:00

Sunday a wee bit cooler - nothing too exciting going on.

Sunday snapshot 15:00

Into the new week Monday is just a bit meh - drizzly/soggy for many. 

Monday snapshot 15:00

 

So yes we have seen/will see a frost or two and fog/freezing fog - mostly in the morning. 
Daytime wise it’s all fairly bog standard stuff.

Meteorological Winter starts on Tuesday - hopefully lowland snowfall for the UK and Ireland somewhere through December! Always enjoy browsing the regional threads to look at the snowy pictures! It has been a while since we had a widespread event - let this December change that please! 

All the best to you all and have a good weekend! 

Edited November 26, 2020 by Mr Frost

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM op to me looks well within the spread at 240 - perfectly feasible.

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM op to me looks well within the spread at 240 - perfectly feasible.

Feasible but it took a few v specific things to occur to get there. 
 

Extended ens means look ok for coldies 

 

[kold weather]

We are always going to be struggling for any noteworthy cold in a pattern seen in the GFS/ECM. Its a pattern that can look amazing but it really is lacking in any meaningful cold throghout a large chunk of Europe due to how it evolves. Because of that you could get cold looking synoptic pattern with good HP development to our north/LP in Europe and be funneling only a modestly cold surface flow - but not anywhere near the levels needed for snow.

Really need to ensure the LP to our NW gets far enough east in the first place that we can end up being on the western side once the LP dives southwards, or further west (closer to the 00z GEM) so we can at least keep the original ESE feed for longer which whilst not exactly bitter, does keep the surface colder.

Overall I'm struggling to get all that ramped about this set-up, its a fairly bog standard looking cooler spell with some frost around if cloud cover allows. If we had any semblance of stronger surface cold than present, it would be far more interesting but its very lukewarm for W.Eurorpe on that front. somewhat better perhaps over C.Europe but still no great shakes.

In conclusion, its a pattern that synoptically looks decent enough but will underperform temperatures wise I suspect. Below average for sure, but nothing that makes me think "get in there". It *may* evolve into a more interesting pattern down the line hopefully but that could still be some way of.

Edited November 26, 2020 by kold weather

[Anthony Burden]

Well we may have finally got to a solution at about 190hrs,nothing certain but may the 

battle begin between the Atlantic and continental air.Any body’s guess who wins but

one thing is certain not the usual run of the mill autumn/winter fair.Exciting stuff for

cold weather fans.

[Daniel*]

Not bad EPS, 00z from yesterday and today, less willingness for neutral-positive NAO further into December. 

[kold weather]

The other thing I should mention is also we'd be mighty unlucky to evolve back into a mild atlantic pattern if we can keep getting these LP's forced southwards. Its a much better pattern than we've seen in quite a few recent winters, even if I'm personally less than enthused because we are depending on very marginal homebrew surface cold pools over Europe.

Cool/cold with probably quite a lot of cloud cover. Those that can escape the cloud should see frosts. Surface flow will be colder than 850hpa temps would suggest, and its a pattern that could well lead to a decent CET for December should it hold for any period of time....but that will be all for nothing if we see the typical La Nina pattern kick in globally through December, or if the vortex suddenly couples. I dare say we are trying to play the long game whilst very much on the timer, will we run out before we get the real good stuff?

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

The other thing I should mention is also we'd be mighty unlucky to evolve back into a mild atlantic pattern if we can keep getting these LP's forced southwards. Its a much better pattern than we've seen in quite a few recent winters, even if I'm personally less than enthused because we are depending on very marginal homebrew surface cold pools over Europe.

Cool/cold with probably quite a lot of cloud cover. Those that can escape the cloud should see frosts. Surface flow will be colder than 850hpa temps would suggest, and its a pattern that could well lead to a decent CET for December should it hold for any period of time....but that will be all for nothing if we see the typical La Nina pattern kick in globally through December, or if the vortex suddenly couples. I dare say we are trying to play the long game whilst very much on the timer, will we run out before we get the real good stuff?

Great summaries Kold. You've just said everything I was thinking

[jules216]

Sit rep Central Europe.

Inversion wonderland for last day today, probably another ice day. A rather picturesque scenery where nature is dressed under thickening ice pellets. Would prefer a bit of sunshine now and a little bit of western Europe dynamics. New ICON is hard to believe as it stalls the upper level low pressure centered just to the east of me for 48hr starting Saturday AM. Since November 20th probably until first week of December at least its winter here not autumn

[Met4Cast]

The ECM det with the category 3 hurricane was an outlier, far above the ensemble envelope, seems the det has been hanging out with the GFS det.

Things are looking okay for coldies this morning. Some consensus across the board for better amplification upstream allowing for northerly winds, the GFS then collapses that into a mid-Atlantic ridge but thanks to the lower heights over Europe it doesn't topple and we then see a re-load of amplification later in the run.

Still not seeing much signal for "proper cold" though, seems mostly surface based, but get the right pattern in and eventually the cold will come.

[phil nw.]

It seems inevitable that we will see low pressure development nearby in a few days as the common theme is Atlantic troughing heading sse squeezed between heights to the east and west.

In the meantime it will feel rather cold with some frost and fog under the high with a continental drift.

A full blown easterly to me is a long shot as we still have a weak but ongoing westerly momentum to the pattern .We can see on the 06z GFS op at T120hrs the split and buckling jet with some energy still over the top.No sign really that the ridges are building far enough north.

Having said that at least we are not full blown zonal and as long as the Atlantic pattern remains under strength like this possibilities for a colder set up remain.The fact that low pressure wants to head south in the eastern Atlantic illustrates the atmosphere is acting unusually for late November.

 

[sheikhy]

Now that chart from the latest gfs 06z was exactly how i expected the ecm to look between 168 and 192 hours until it threw its toys out the pram!!

[joggs]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Now that chart from the latest gfs 06z was exactly how i expected the ecm to look between 168 and 192 hours until it threw its toys out the pram!!

Charts to prove this?.

Thanks.

[Tim Bland]

7 minutes ago, joggs said:

Charts to prove this?.

Thanks.

Charts can be access here 

 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose des cartes du modèle americain de GFS

Improvement on the 06z more of an easterly flow and colder air to the east 

Edited November 26, 2020 by Tim Bland

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Charts can be access here 

 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose des cartes du modèle americain de GFS

Improvement on the 06z more of an easterly flow and colder air to the east 

Oi oi captain! Streamers ahead

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

 

In a warming world frost seems more difficult to come by.This is a good time of year for frost under the right set up...

 

Same for snow....oh it’s currently 400 gigatons above 1980-2012 average...

 

Anyway, superb 06z...nicely cold and surely there’ll be snow in this run.  The positioning and shape of the first diving LP more like where I’d anticipate it to be and go.  Great run.

 

 

BFTP

Edited November 26, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[sheikhy]

That is some serious scandi block on the gfs op and control at 168 hours!!you would think maybe the block is being underestimated and come the time it will be even further west!!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye, maybe flurry or 2, wet flakes more likely away from the E

[kold weather]

15 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Same for snow....oh it’s currently 400 gigatons above 1980-2012 average...

 

Anyway, superb 06z...nicely cold and surely there’ll be snow in this run.  The positioning of the first diving LP more like where I’d anticipate it to go.  Great run

 

BFTP

Without going off topic the problem is we are at far greater risk from marginality than most though ,especially north of 50N due to the gulf stream, etc. So 1-2c increase won't make too much difference to snowfall marginality for N.Norway but will increase snowfall, but for the UK that can make the difference between rain and snow as we've seen before.

Anyway I'd struggle to call this run superb...its barely even in the good category for me. Probably a slim chance of snizzle from the east at day-10 but as it is, nothing too interesting.

If this is superb then our standards really have taken a drastic fall due to recent years my word!

Edit - lets reminds us of what superb looks like, control GFS 00z extended:

Thats the hallmark of greatness!

Edited November 26, 2020 by kold weather

[Nick F]

Not a bad 06z GFS given the likely way forward now, agreed on by the models, of the polar trough extending SE from Greenland to western Europe between days 6 and 8. 00z EC the worst case scenario with the trough disruption into a cut-off low by keeping the low close to the west of the UK. GFS has the upper low over Iberia and extending into western Med, which allows ridging to build over the top and keep us in an easterly flow, which could turn colder.

Which model should we have more faith in? As it appears, reading some tweets by US mets last few days, EC may be having some issues with modelling, because apparently it is failing to propagate the emerging MJO wave towards 5/6 like GFS (which is more likely) rather it wants to stall in the Maritime Continent, this has ramifications for the upper flow and wave patterns downstream over N Pacific, N America and the N Atlantic. 

[joggs]

25 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Charts can be access here 

 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel propose des cartes du modèle americain de GFS

Improvement on the 06z more of an easterly flow and colder air to the east 

Only asking for charts because one liners become prevalent and start clogging the thread up.