Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)

Just as a side note be it fi yet again the PV seems to be on the 6z control going on holiday to the east!!! I'd bank that every day of the week. Be interesting to see if ec continues the build of Heighths later

Edited by swfc
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
5 minutes ago, XanderP007 said:

the chart looked weird to me as well nothing i can do though. 

It looks like a chart showing a number of ensemble runs and where they each place lows etc.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
8 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

It looks like a chart showing a number of ensemble runs and where they each place lows etc.

Its the minimum end of the pressure & H500 spreads.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Popular Post
Posted

As I mentioned yesterday a little ridging upstream makes a lot of difference to cold chances when the mean jet is already tracking quite a way south. 

The 06z gfs showing this towards Christmas. 

A cold northerly around the holidays would please many I am sure. 

  • Like 10
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bricriu Seasoned

Bricriu

Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

As I mentioned yesterday a little ridging upstream makes a lot of difference to cold chances when the mean jet is already tracking quite a way south. 

The 06z gfs showing this towards Christmas. 

A cold northerly around the holidays would please many I am sure. 

It certainly would. It has been 16 years since I saw snow fall on Christmas Day. If it does comes to pass, it just shows that sometimes a bit of zonality can work in our favour. Even if it is  brief, most people will be glad just to see wintry falls for a change at Christmas.

Edited by Bricriu
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Northwest NI Seasoned

Northwest NI

Posted
  • Location: Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: Northern Ireland
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

It certainly would. It has been 16 years since I saw snow fall on Christmas Day. If it does comes to pass, it just shows that sometimes a bit of zonality can work in our favour. Even if it is  brief, most people will be glad just to see wintry falls for a change at Christmas.

Not in 2009 or 2010 then?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bricriu Seasoned

Bricriu

Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted
1 minute ago, Northwest NI said:

Not in 2009 or 2010 then?

Well, no snow fell on the 24th or 25th those years. 2009 was particularly frustrating because the temperature was -1 Christmas morning,  yet all we got was freezing rain!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Looking at the GEFS 6z..wow there’s plenty of crud, wow, wow.. it’s a crud fest...!..BUT..there’s also this..cherries included!

6C11B58C-8195-4488-97ED-C17D61EDFBA5.thumb.png.00565fc5e6a415c385ae03aebc308870.pngFBFE32A7-A3CF-47ED-BF1C-A1A5E0BD02B9.thumb.png.b765e029a6073261c85ae5cf43fa5779.pngE09C4FDB-AC4D-4D50-995E-DE387523179B.thumb.png.253484bf30249bf502fe382339815c09.pngA8F30A72-FAD2-47DD-807E-CB43DAD7A0FD.thumb.png.03517070ee0586056ec0a47982e308e5.png

:reindeer-emoji:

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted (edited)

Well the 06z gfs ensembles certainly lifting the spirits in terms of cold come  Xmas time.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

I've just flicked through the 06z GFS ensembles - about 1/3 of them show some sort of northerly around Christmas/Boxing Day.

Here's one - P15:

gens-15-1-348.thumb.png.1878326ddf33358b06228e401b9277ff.png   gens-15-0-348.thumb.png.f2fa1bedcec0d639ffa02ecbbdc3697b.png   gens-15-2-324.thumb.png.7872f9ecbdc4727147882ff3254f1b81.png

But instead, P11 caught my attention. Look near Greece. -24/-26c uppers!! Along with a 1060mb high!!! Utterly insane

gens-11-1-360.thumb.png.f3b80896327c23aed4dd0b1a47674439.png   gens-11-0-384.thumb.png.042f1ab49716606943d2d2257f21a0e5.png

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Northwest NI Seasoned

Northwest NI

Posted
  • Location: Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: Northern Ireland
Posted
1 hour ago, XanderP007 said:

They say that something as significant as a Butterfly flapping it's wings could cause a snowstorm(okay Tornado but in Winter i suppose it could) 

1452182398_gens-33-1-192(1).thumb.png.671c2f23fa368a58be1af22d7fe35781.png

The butterfly has just flapped it's wings. 

Full of “potential” 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

I've just flicked through the 06z GFS ensembles - about 1/3 of them show some sort of northerly around Christmas/Boxing Day.

Here's one - P15:

gens-15-1-348.thumb.png.1878326ddf33358b06228e401b9277ff.png   gens-15-0-348.thumb.png.f2fa1bedcec0d639ffa02ecbbdc3697b.png   gens-15-2-324.thumb.png.7872f9ecbdc4727147882ff3254f1b81.png

But instead, P11 caught my attention. Look near Greece. -24/-26c uppers!! Along with a 1060mb high!!! Utterly insane

gens-11-1-360.thumb.png.f3b80896327c23aed4dd0b1a47674439.png   gens-11-0-384.thumb.png.042f1ab49716606943d2d2257f21a0e5.png

I actually like that one, depending on what it does next obviously, if it keeps moving east with those cold uppers it'll be game on. Just a bit late for Christmas obviously. As it's only one pert, probably not a strong signal for this though.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

I've just flicked through the 06z GFS ensembles - about 1/3 of them show some sort of northerly around Christmas/Boxing Day.

Here's one - P15:

gens-15-1-348.thumb.png.1878326ddf33358b06228e401b9277ff.png   gens-15-0-348.thumb.png.f2fa1bedcec0d639ffa02ecbbdc3697b.png   gens-15-2-324.thumb.png.7872f9ecbdc4727147882ff3254f1b81.png

But instead, P11 caught my attention. Look near Greece. -24/-26c uppers!! Along with a 1060mb high!!! Utterly insane

gens-11-1-360.thumb.png.f3b80896327c23aed4dd0b1a47674439.png   gens-11-0-384.thumb.png.042f1ab49716606943d2d2257f21a0e5.png

At least week 2 has better prospects for coldies with signs of ridging  in the Atlantic flow.

Whether we get a northerly remains to be seen at this range but the latest 2m temp London ens.continue with the downward trend.

1712248507_ensemble-tt6-london(1).thumb.gif.e6bee4e2a15ccb7e8a7a182a144946aa.gif

Both suites in pretty good agreement too.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

The beauty of having the door closed on one cold spell but retaining good background signals is that nicer charts should always be just around the next corner. Throwing the towel in over a week before astronomical winter (not wishing to start that one up again! ) even starts could only happen on this forum. Really it only could.

There is little chance of a decent cold spell in the next 10 days, thereafter, and that still includes Christmas Day itself, a new cold spell commencing is still very possible.

During these windows of opportunities, anybody with no understanding of the weather could wager mild/rain would win Vs cold/snow every time and would win 9 out of 10 times, probably more, but where’s the fun in that?

Anyway, all eyes on the start of the week in run up to Christmas. That Arctic high is still there and as is always the case, is the wildcard. Mid Atlantic ridging could well start featuring more as the MJO wave continues rolling eastwards (and maybe increasing in amplitude?) Will it be enough? With a seemingly pre disposed southerly tracking jet, will it need to be? That’s mid term, the long term prospects not too shabby from either. 

Timing, as always, will quite possibly be everything...

Edited by s4lancia
  • Like 16
Link to comment
Share on other sites
phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted

Just flicking through the ecm clusters and the support for Atlantic ridging is showing.These are day 10 along with the ECM mean chart.

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.f06cf3b1913f7535b19143c4bb7496f1.gifec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020121200_240.thumb.png.6df5c53ff154c1698f0679c6bad17602.png

Could get interesting around Christmas if we can get that trough far enough east.There is more Atlantic mobility in the pattern now so fingers crossed that trough drops through in time.We can never be sure on detail this far ahead but at least we have something to watch.

Hopefully we can continue to see this modest ridging show as we get closer.

 

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
3 minutes ago, XanderP007 said:

Not sure about this one. 

Screenshot_20201212_131700_com.android.chrome.jpg

It looks great..but this looks even better..someone in the u k might see snaw during the festive period according to the GEFS 6z!:santa-emoji:

A8A12ED3-2D42-4B1D-A618-5786DB7BD7FB.thumb.png.3557e3c96b393fd44f51757c094b83dd.png6BF3E28A-9E30-444A-A1BD-C90B83A41999.thumb.png.23243511814da171498fdb099115364d.png5CA1A26E-44A9-4CE4-B576-5D84F93485C3.thumb.png.3f3ce0dc152b6e06436d738f1c78ed24.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted (edited)

CFS says if I can't give you all a white Christmas, then how about a white New year, incidently its MJO forecast does enter phase 7 today albeit at low amplitude.

 

CFS did forecast a cold start to December with a mild spell after correctly on most of the runs I saw back in early November but nothing as dramatic as this...

20201212_135015.jpg

20201212_134958.jpg

20201212_134853.jpg

20201212_134909.jpg

20201212_134923.jpg

20201212_135034.jpg

20201212_134937.jpg

Edited by Kentspur
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Kentish Snowman in Yorks Experienced

Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Popular Post
Posted

I am not convinced Xander quite has the hang of this thread yet?!

Posts a random chart is asked what it relates to and then shrugs his shoulders! 

And Steve Murr leaving the group chat works every time without fail like clock work.

Steve declares winter is over leaves the chat.  Wintry nirvana immediately appears in the output!

Joking aside we are in a better place than we were this time yesterday in terms of a cold Christmas.

Definitely more amplification appearing at the right time frame that is for sure.

Fingers crossed for a continuation of the good news on that front when the 12z runs start rolling

  • Like 10
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Popular Post
Posted
1 hour ago, s4lancia said:

The beauty of having the door closed on one cold spell but retaining good background signals is that nicer charts should always be just around the next corner. Throwing the towel in over a week before astronomical winter (not wishing to start that one up again! ) even starts could only happen on this forum. Really it only could.

 

Yep, I firmly believe in this. We were only just short of the amplification needed to make an Arctic high link up. My position about this phase of winter is that the door is still ajar, and that give it a couple of days to see what pans out. 

  • Like 23
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...