Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It’s still FI but as we get around Xmas some pretty interesting set ups showing on GFS.  Now GFS has shown this ‘interest’ on t384, t300 etc always around Christmas Day and it still is....so it’s creeping in but is still FI.  I’m still hopeful there’s some cold to be had for around then....and as I’ve said though the Atlantic must/will have it’s part to play.

relevant charts have already been posted in posts above.  
 

BFTP

[Daniel*]

The more amplified eastern seaboard has gained momentum I notice also on 00z the TPV does not return to Greenland. The Europe view doesn’t look good but elsewhere a lot of promise. 

[LRD]

For this morning's serving of GFS spaghetti, I give net weather model-watchers this dish straight from the ensemble kitchen...

From about 22 Dec, this is much better tasting than the last few runs that served up that tinned spaghetti crap. I realise it's not Michelin-restaurant standard, just yet, and there is room for improvement but hopefully the winter chef will be in over the next few weeks and working over Xmas and the taste of this spaghetti gets better and better

Right, I've run out of food analogies, so I'll leave it there. Have a good Saturday everyone

Edited December 12, 2020 by LRD

[Jeremy Shockey]

GEFS 0z 850s

Many more colder options Dec 22-27 appearing. A few cold shots from the NW with a more amplified Atlantic. There is still hope

[Anthony Burden]

ECMW 42 day forecasting high pressure to the north and low to the south around Christmas 

time.GFS beginning to smell the coffee in fantasy island with pressure rising,easterly on its

way patients required.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

ECMW 42 day forecasting high pressure to the north and low to the south around Christmas 

time.GFS beginning to smell the coffee in fantasy island with pressure rising,easterly on its

way patients required.

Absolutely. Ecm ops quite frankly can't decide whether to raise pressure over south western Europe or not. Each op seems to alternate. I am still confident we will experience a cold Christmas week. 

[chris55]

Looks like the next week or so is pretty certain now with the Atlantic taking control of the weather. Milder/wet and breezy.

The next ‘chase’ so to speak, is around Xmas and beyond. 
 

GFS control highlighting what is possible (not probable though  ) 

 

xmas eve. Trough finally moving east allowing the Atlantic ridge to have some influence drawing down a northerly.

 

Then beyond way out in FI , looks locked in!

The Xmas to new year period has seen a fair few cold spells but not had one for a while iirc. Maybe this year we can bag one. 
 

Happy holidays  

 

Edited December 12, 2020 by chris55

[Tim Bland]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It’s still FI but as we get around Xmas some pretty interesting set ups showing on GFS.  Now GFS has shown this ‘interest’ on t384, t300 etc always around Christmas Day and it still is....so it’s creeping in but is still FI.  I’m still hopeful there’s some cold to be had for around then....and as I’ve said though the Atlantic must/will have it’s part to play.

relevant charts have already been posted in posts above.  
 

BFTP

GEM is the best output IMO this morning. PV shunted away from Greenland and cold air spilling down to our east. Have you finally Conceded on your persistent forecast of a Beast From the East for Christmas week now?

[Eagle Eye]

Some deep lows around the 21st possible. 

Possibly going below 0 around that time as well. 

 

[swfc]

2 hours ago, Mucka said:

Slightly better icon at 120 hrs. Better ridging ie Steve Murrs wedge pushing nw from scan area.maybe nothing in the grand scale of things

[Eagle Eye]

Certainly a differantial forecast. 

[That ECM]

FI gfs has heights going north. Let’s hope it follows the control. 
 

 

[PiscesStar]

6 minutes ago, XanderP007 said:

Certainly a differantial forecast. 

Love the way the ensembles drop notably around 21st Dec... Perfect timing...  

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

40 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM is the best output IMO this morning. PV shunted away from Greenland and cold air spilling down to our east. Have you finally Conceded on your persistent forecast of a Beast From the East for Christmas week now?

Beast /Blast....nope here it is

 

 

Now how can that ‘not’ happen

Tim, I’m still ‘hopeful’ of a cold blast from easterly quadrant ....not a Siberian HP backing west though 

 

BFTP

Edited December 12, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

I wrote a post and then lost it .....

amyway .....looking better for coldies post Xmas ......

 

[Tim Bland]

our best bet is an Atlantic ridge which will provide a northerly. We need help from the MJO to achieve this. phases 4-5-6 Look like becoming more active and this will help with the much needed N Atlantic amplification to rescue Christmas! (Pic credit to Mr Hugo) 

[Day 10]

6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

FI gfs has heights going north. Let’s hope it follows the control. 
 

 

Was just about to post something similar mate, the  0Z control showing what could happen. There has definitely been changes out west since yesterday in the mid to long term and that's why I ain't giving up on a cold spell over Christmas, still plenty of time for changes!

As @Muckahas posted further back the ECM has something similar at Day 10 but at this point less amplified.

Too early to give in on Christmas just yet.

[bluearmy]

21 minutes ago, swfc said:

Slightly better icon at 120 hrs. Better ridging ie Steve Murrs wedge pushing nw from scan area.maybe nothing in the grand scale of things

Unless we are going to get a wtf moment from years ago as per the Ukmo day 6 chart that flipped the jet se then looking for anything pre day 10 isn’t worth the effort ! 

[johnholmes]

50 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

ECMW 42 day forecasting high pressure to the north and low to the south around Christmas 

time.GFS beginning to smell the coffee in fantasy island with pressure rising,easterly on its

way patients required.

Re the highlighted bit=there are plenty of those on here at times, I doubt the NHS would be impressed to take them on!

To the models, well the anomaly versions; the one +ve for cold fans is that none of the 3 models have 500 mb air sourced from far south areas, most are about normal for the contour values, around the Gt Lakes area and west. So perhaps chance at times during relative lulls in the procession of lows for some colder air over the country. This 'could' give leading edge snow on higher hills fairly well south perhaps? Just an idea.

[Valleyboy]

6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Beast /Blast....nope here it is

 

Now how can that ‘not’ happen

Tim, I’m still ‘hopeful’ of a cold blast from easterly quadrant ....not a Siberian HP backing west though 

 

BFTP

To be fair, it’s only easterlies that really deliver the goods, for most of the UK, so let’s hope models firm up on the real deal.  Remember, the models have never handled easterlies well, they tend to appear at short notice.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

our best bet is an Atlantic ridge which will provide a northerly. We need help from the MJO to achieve this. phases 4-5-6 Look like becoming more active and this will help with the much needed N Atlantic amplification to rescue Christmas! (Pic credit to Mr Hugo) 

Yes, and if we can get it to our NW and trough to SE....bingo.

 

BFTP

Edited December 12, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[swfc]

15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Unless we are going to get a wtf moment from years ago as per the Ukmo day 6 chart that flipped the jet se then looking for anything pre day 10 isn’t worth the effort ! 

It was just an observation, nothing profound

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yes, and if we get it to our NW and trough to SE....bingo.

 

BFTP

Fair play for sticking with your prediction. I can see a small chance for a northerly turning to a transient easterly (1-2 days) as per a few of the ensembles posted above. I’m afraid I still can’t see a beast from the east (this month) though.   I would expect most people to define this as at least 5 days of an easterly flow wiith sno showers lacking in from the east and lows undercutting from the west. Let’s hope the models start showing some interest soon! 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

The problem is it's always a long time and eventually it will be Early January then middle of January and so on 

Perhaps hopes of a somewhat chilly Xmas? If anything I take a dry one if else 

wouldn’t surprise me to see a mild Xmas ....the pattern is mobile at our latitude - I’m surprised that so many amplified NH gefs members are showing each run ....if that ship had truly sailed then I wouldn’t expect to see so many each suite - that tells me the trop and lower strat remain prone to blocking with a persistent neg AO.  The NAO also negative though a lack of continental cold means this is of no use to us re possible snowfall .....

anyway, I see enough in this mornings output to retain my interest post Xmas - we realise that a lack of upstream amplification has meant we didn’t take advantage of what looked to be decent set up ...... now it seems that we could get that amplification later week 2 .....

will it be too late ??  

will that amplification have disappeared by tomorrow ! 

[bradymk]

After checking GEFS every day for the past few weeks, weirdly after the downbeat nature of yesterday, I would say the 00z is one of the best suites at day 10 to 15 so far.

Lots of amplified members at Xmas, particularly post Xmas.

From past experience, one of GEFS strong points is that it is good at picking up mid Atlantic amplification in the longer range so looking through the members, hopefully this is the sign of the MJO helping us out at end of the month. Several members attached. See what 6z suite follows up with...