Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted

Negative temperatures possible. 

gens-0-4-384.thumb.png.cdd1d8c8005a3a998a6529c6243a3686.png

gens-33-4-312.thumb.png.b78506b49afa4286ce43d1e2700695e2.png

gens-33-4-336.thumb.png.ac641860f866a7868a4e73217b5972a9.png

Anomaly z500 - 20 anomaly possivle, 0oc to 5oc anomaly with a 1000mb probably. 

 

gens-34-5-312.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted

Question: Is GFS still bias'ed with calculating too much atalntic power?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
Just now, Vikos said:

Question: Is GFS still bias'ed with calculating too much atalntic power?

Generally yes but given that the earth is turning from that direction, it has an advantage in being right on that ! 

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted
3 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Question: Is GFS still bias'ed with calculating too much atalntic power?

Looking at recent charts, yes. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted

I understand how annoyed anyone is that close Gfs's don't seem to come to pass whenever we get a good one but there is still months to go at Winter. 

Anomoly's still have a good chance of coming to pass, we each have a 1 in 1.4 Quintillion chance of being alive a 1 in 25 chance is quite a good chance against the chance of living. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Also note that over the next ten days we seee strat vortex stretch from asia to Canada and become Canadian centric before looking like it may then want to go back to Asia .....this back and forth strat vortex movement is generally not great for keeping the Atlantic quiet - even with a general disconnect between the tpv and spv, that is more to do with the strength of the flow rather than the positioning of the vortex ...... again, this could be seen to be a positive for the post Xmas period in allowing for an Atlantic height rise ....

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sebastiaan1973 Experienced

sebastiaan1973

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
Posted
34 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

our best bet is an Atlantic ridge which will provide a northerly. We need help from the MJO to achieve this. phases 4-5-6 Look like becoming more active and this will help with the much needed N Atlantic amplification to rescue Christmas! (Pic credit to Mr Hugo) 

 

I'm a little confused. Does phase 5 teleconnect with N-blocking. In the week to come we see a transition from phase 4 to 5. To have impact we need 7-10 days. So Phase 5 is important for Christmas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted

Comparison 6z GFS today / yesterday

It's swinging...

Just to show that there is no sense to search anything past 144h, my oppinion...

spacer.pngspacer.png

 

 

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
6 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

I'm a little confused. Does phase 5 teleconnect with N-blocking. In the week to come we see a transition from phase 4 to 5. To have impact we need 7-10 days. So Phase 5 is important for Christmas.

The MJO amplification as recorded/forecast looks to have low amplification - I’m never convinced that without amplification in a phase that it imprints effectively downstream ....

Link to comment
Share on other sites
That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, Vikos said:

Comparison 6z GFS today / yesterday

It's swinging...

Just to show that there is no sense to search anything past 144h, my oppinion...

spacer.pngspacer.png

 

 

When searching past t144 and into fi we are looking for big picture type changes and trends. Details will be impossible of course but if heights are being modelled be it west of us over us or east of us then it is of interest to see if any can get further north.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
4 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Comparison 6z GFS today / yesterday

It's swinging...

Just to show that there is no sense to search anything past 144h, my oppinion...

spacer.pngspacer.png

 

 

Anyone looking at the eps clusters, where there has been more than one recently, will have noticed that the area around scandi looks surprisingly binary ...... hence my lack of interest in the single clusters ! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Well after a pretty underwhelming few days of model watching, the 6z is showing some improvement.  Better around Greenland with cold approaching from the north east.  Nothing to get excited about yet, but at least it's something!

image.thumb.png.dc34e5ec0dabd52e38e5a34d0fa5b0ff.pngimage.thumb.png.0d05b0e31e97e6b9a1f4885c3026773d.png  

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sebastiaan1973 Experienced

sebastiaan1973

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
Posted
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The MJO amplification as recorded/forecast looks to have low amplification - I’m never convinced that without amplification in a phase that it imprints effectively downstream ....

Well, that seems true. We have to wait and see, it's a mean, which seems to lessen when time progress.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

When searching past t144 and into fi we are looking for big picture type changes and trends. Details will be impossible of course but if heights are being modelled be it west of us over us or east of us then it is of interest to see if any can get further north.  

 

But the comparision must be made with the charts from the preivious day like 00z to 00z. Comparing 00z to 06z f.e. doesn't make any sense due the lack of a lot of information in the runs of 06z and 18z (mostly radio probes information that is missing in 06 an 18z).

Correct me if I am wrong (and excuse my maybe freaklish english)

Edited by Vikos
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Deep cold or deep heat? That is the question! Just don't put deep heat on the backburner...? Then again, short-term pain equals long-term gain.

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)

Gfs 6z yet again ie oz control brings in something more akin to winter in fi. Looks good to me esp over Atlantic. Rightly or wrongly that's how I see it so far today

Edited by swfc
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted

Big improvement on this run, showers turning to snow in the north, cold air pushing south.

gfsnh-0-282.thumb.png.d70e1dad42604b947f921afeaec11dc7.pnggfsnh-1-282.thumb.png.585aafa2597e2073bc8ea0c1e83afe86.pnggfs-2-282.thumb.png.190d4f96072ad9932d803f4957708993.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted

They say that something as significant as a Butterfly flapping it's wings could cause a snowstorm(okay Tornado but in Winter i suppose it could) 

1452182398_gens-33-1-192(1).thumb.png.671c2f23fa368a58be1af22d7fe35781.png

The butterfly has just flapped it's wings. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Bingo.   Can someone call Steve Murr and let him know he needs to come back!...

82318ABD-F7F1-489D-80A1-FEA0BC68007C.png

CBB24E48-87E6-4A51-B7C9-3D531BCA798C.png

It does look somewhat promising for the north but because it's so far out I won't take notice of this 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jeremy Shockey Rising Star

Jeremy Shockey

Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
Posted (edited)

spacer.pngGFS 06 z for Christmas Eve

I'm liking the look of the GFS 06z for 24th Dec

Good Atlantic amplification perhaps aided by the MJO into phase 6 in 10 days time.

We are still in the game !

Edited by Jeremy Shockey
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...