Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Battleground Snow]

Wow, what a time to sleep through the 4am alarm! 

Always feel like something big Is brewing when the overnight runs upgrade cold!

Come on ECM , join the party over the next hour!

[Kasim Awan]

16 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

Prob a stupid question but why if these charts are so good does it not show much snow when you click on the precipitation tab on meteociel?

Low resolution of most models at that time frame will not resolve the full extent of convective bands / streamers from a showery flow well, whist retaining capability for modelling frontal systems. noaa for example does not prioritize this in their medium range gfs model. there would be more than suggested. the icon is especially poor for this.

 

addition: there is a fair bit of north sea ppn and it would be snow, 10-20cms widely on the run 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

Ukmo... 

Vs

GFS 

 

 

FYI UKMO 850s at 144...

[That ECM]

14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The other GFS ENS aren’t as extreme as the Op and control , but with the resolutions of the 2 showing the Greeny block being similar I take a little crumb of comfort - but we need ECM support for sure, without it I fear a reset on the next run!!

There is plenty that are lovely. Add the last one to keep feet on ground.

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by That ECM

[Weather-history]

P17 has the Siberian high extending into Scandinavia at end of year.  Looks March 2013esque

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

P17 has the Siberian high extending into Scandinavia at end of year.  Looks March 2013esque

I commented on its position as the 18z came out. Certainly seems to be floating around with the possibility of some kind of influence. 

[Windysun1]

Sorry but what time does ECM come out again?

[Rocheydub]

1 minute ago, Windysun1 said:

Sorry but what time does ECM come out again?

It’s running now. Early slides so nothing to report yet

[Kasim Awan]

It appears ECM might be connecting the undercutting low at 96h, adding to the low heights that will form the northerly. So, i would expect a more potent initial northerly from this run. 

Edit: maybe not..

Edited December 18, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[bluearmy]

At T348 on the gefs mean and the favoured points for the expected main upper features are shown

Atlantic ridge just to our west

Canadian vortex just nw of Greenland 

sceuro trough into e Europe 

That sort of guides you to the size of the envelope on the gefs ....... sadly we don’t really get a view of the eps at this timeframe - I think the data is now available on ecm website but the representation is not comparable to meteociel

the spreads tie in v well with the mean on those features which should provide some reassurance that the mean isn’t a blend of quite different clusters as they do tele-connect.  Given that the Atlantic ridge from the Azores is likely to be more reliable than a euro trough, I know where my current New Year’s Day prediction would be nuanced using this model although the U.K. sits in the area of uncertainty (as is usual)

Edited December 18, 2020 by bluearmy

[bluearmy]

Icon is wonderful for coldies but isolated in driving a greeny upper wedge/block 

[Griff]

Ecm now vs previous at 144

 

[mulzy]

ECMWF Day 6 - obvious the ridge will not hold.  Eyes need to watch the second bout of amplification.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

ECMWF Day 6 - obvious the ridge will not hold.  Eyes need to watch the second bout of amplification.

The speed upstream over n America of the trough is crucial on this and with other runners becoming involved you’d be nuts to making any predictions on how this pans out (other than to say the first ridge looks odds on not to have enough traction as per icon) 

[Vikos]

Good morning,

just opened my eyes, just to see this stunning GFS run wich isn’t FI but but has reached midterm. Seems like we get our own chunk of the PV over Europe. In 06z it will swing back, I think. 

[carinthian]

Morning all, exciting isn't it . You have to say the UKMO has stuck with its guns with not advancing the Azores Low and outwardly looking at the 144t  is a cold looking chart. Where do we go from there ? I think whatever mega looking cold charts are being churned out we will only know with a concensus of model agreement at 96t. Hopefully, the UKMO models stays solid with its consistency.

C

Edited December 18, 2020 by carinthian

[Day 10]

Can't post charts at the mo but ECM looks good to me. 

[Ali1977]

WOW, it’s following with a cold run - not quite as extreme at T192 but this is gonna be a good one

Edited December 18, 2020 by Ali1977

[bluearmy]

When I looked an hour ago at the models I thought the gem looked like it was a decent stab at the 6/8 day set up.  Ecm op now supports that evolution so I would say that this seems to be a good place to position the mobile end of the envelope. You wouldn’t expect it to become flatter than that given the propensity of other modelling to continue to amplify 

[Rocheydub]

10 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Can't post charts at the mo but ECM looks good to me. 

Sorry, but they’re poles apart from the great GFS run we just witnessed, much less amplification 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Rocheydub

[Kasim Awan]

Is the ECM the new GFS?

Could sell this chart as a dartboard..

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

Sorry, but they’re poles apart from the great GFS run we just witnessed, much less amplification 

Poles apart? Not the same but tucked into BA’s envelope.

[Tim Bland]

Beautiful GFS this morning!

some snow mixed in to the back of that low on the ECM ..

[Rocheydub]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Poles apart? Not the same but tucked into BA’s envelope.

At the time, the run wasn’t out to 216, so my reaction to his comment is quite valid

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Sorry, but they’re poles apart from the great GFS run we just witnessed, much less amplification 

Eh? I didn't mention the GFS, I said the ECM looks good to me which it does.