Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Zak M]

And to make things even better... after the second northerly, the Atlantic blocking is still there, and looks to be lining up a THIRD northerly.

You couldn't make this up.

[Matt H]

Just now, Zak M said:

And to make things even better... after the second northerly, the Atlantic blocking is still there, and looks to be lining up a THIRD northerly.

You couldn't make this up.

The GFS has a history of making things up.

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

And to make things even better... after the second northerly, the Atlantic blocking is still there, and looks to be lining up a THIRD northerly.

You couldn't make this up.

Northerly? it's going full beast... 

Edited December 17, 2020 by Griff

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

Continent too mild? .  Strong easterly and low surface temps after several days of cold air over us....ah well if it plays like this and I lose my bet as it’s delayed by 2 days....never mind  

 

BFTP

Edited December 17, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Bartlett High]

7 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Could we even link up with @Griff’s ‘old friend’ the Arctic high? It sure feels old given how long it’s final destination has been shrouded in mystery. That’d be a cold lock in  all right.

A rather large part of me feels like the above  chart verifying is impossible, but I’ll enjoy it all the same

 

 

Can I print this chart and take it to bed with me .

[markw2680]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

All I am left thinking is that there is plenty of time for this to improve further still with further runs

Can it improve on this? You don’t normally get these charts at all in winter other than deep fi so to have them in December of all times. Mmm

[nick sussex]

These northerlies are like buses !

The GFS is going to try for a third .

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Where did it break away on UKMO.. I question uk 144. 120 and below would be helpful

Here you go.

UKMO and gfs at 144.

 

[Tom Jarvis]

So tonight the changes at short term ie within t96-t120 has led to smithing allot better down the line. As long as we get that cut of low supporting the high we will be in business. This isn’t out in t240 this is very short term which leads to positives later. So I’m hoping tomorrow that the ECM finally joins the UKMO then it will be another massive win for the UKMO over all the other models. For once the UKMO might have been right on something that actually improves the chances of cold for us in the uk rather than it finding that spoiler that ruins everything. 

[Uncertainty]

12 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

All I am left thinking is that there is plenty of time for this to improve further still with further runs

Glad you think that Ed, do you think that that low that got sucked to the to the SW, rather than sent through the UK, is propping up the high? E.G do you feel that trapping it to the SW is necessary for the ridge to gain enough amplification to produce 18z esque outcomes?

You can see the same low pressure has become rather convoluted over the Azores, right where the high normally resides.

All the good ens I’ve seen have the ridge riding over that low and allow it to build well Northwards, resulting in a sort of super-topler. Those that send the low through the UK as a well developed system never seem to have enough amplitude in the long wave pattern to sustain the following ridge to anything more than ECM’s damp WNW squib.

Edited December 17, 2020 by Uncertainy

[feb1991blizzard]

Word of caution though - take note, still no Greenland heights, just brief Northerlies. still suggests the atmosphere isn't primed.

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Here you go.

UKMO and gfs at 144.

 

I have to disagree this didn’t happen here, this low isn’t the issue, it is the upstream one at T114 GFS 18z, T120 UKMO:

Edited December 17, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Ice Day]

The Control is following the pub run at 150 (Control first).  Much better than its previous run. 

   

Where's John Snow with his swingometer?

 

[Downburst]

Heavy cold dense air when formed has an exponential, or multiplier effect if you like in hanging on in there and shouting to the Atlantic, you shall not pass. Great viewing this. Love the fact MJO is in COD and we don’t have posters telling us this is because we are in stage 6 or 7. Rather the bloody weather is simply mad and I love that. Hers hoping.

[sheikhy]

Could someone post the 18z ensembles later please!!heading of to bed now!!see yas in the morning!!ciao!!

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

I have to disagree this didn’t happen here, this low isn’t the issue, it is the upstream one at T120:

Yes mike,that is another positive,...granted but without the trough in the Azores,the high would sink hence a better run.

[bluearmy]

Slowest ridge retrogression in history .......

Edited December 17, 2020 by bluearmy

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

The Control is following the pub run at 150 (Control first).  Much better than its previous run. 

   

Where's John Snow with his swingometer?

 

Yes it appears GFS has settled on this low getting trapped under the collapsing ridge.

This is a decent turn of fortunes, we need this trend to maintain in the morning.  

[Allseasons-Si]

24 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

These northerlies are like buses !

The GFS is going to try for a third .

yes either they don't come at all or they come at once,...that's Yorkshire traction for ya

anyway the Lion king is about to pounce in fl.

and on that pv bombshell...

goodnight.

 

Edited December 17, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Mike Poole]

10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes mike,that is another positive,...granted but without the trough in the Azores,the high would sink hence a better run.

Yes, agreed but they are both connected, the same thing is causing them.  

[Mapantz]

A clear trend South by the 23rd, with the control and mean following the OP - looking at the London 850 ensemble so far..

FI at day 4 though!

 

[Anthony Burden]

Well congratulations met office at last gfs smelt the coffee all about 144 hrs for those that 

don’t understand Met office has been showing no low pressure to the the west of U.K. for days.

This changes the Synoptics completely.The ECM GFS GEM all showed low pressure to the west of the UK

at 144hrs tracking over to the east.This is a major change to Christmas and after weather wise high

pressure to dominate as Met office 30 day forecast stated,could get some wintery precipitation 

to the east coast as low pressure tracks down to our east .

 

[Battleground Snow]

Got to give credit to icon and ukmo, they modelled the Azores low getting cut off first and also had the low on the ESB further west too which gives us better amplification.

Can we finally get big improvements at a relative short range, when it usually goes the other way?

Anyone else setting the alarm for 4am for a quick glance at the icon and ukmo?

[Ice Day]

Here's the next northerly, the New Year's Day Blizzard (well for the Highlands of Scotland anyway).

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

A clear trend South by the 23rd, with the control and mean following the OP - looking at the London 850 ensemble so far..

FI at day 4 though!

 

Thats what coldies want to see !!

Keep those lows south.