Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Allseasons-Si]

This is MEGA from here i will tell ya...

[Griff]

I think this run is going straight to tier 3 and will be in self-isolation come tomorrow morning. 

[northwestsnow]

Much better for Europe !!

[chionomaniac]

The difference between where the PV is situated between runs to the west of Greenland should tell everyone that FI is a lot sooner than expected and not to read too much into normal FI output

Edited December 17, 2020 by chionomaniac

[Tom Jarvis]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That Azores low that broke away is propping height's further north on this run,watch the amps in the Atlantic!

That is why it is key

[Hotspur62]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Much better for Europe !!

Not only Europe,look at those temperatures in Eastern and Central USA and Canada!

[northwestsnow]

Owww I flicked back to 12z by mistake at 204...

My poor eyes, 18z is much easier on the eyes..

EC is alone pushing the low through earlier...

[markw2680]

8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Somethings brewing guys❄!!or are we gona be brought back down to earth in the morning

I hope not, can’t take this garden path anymore 

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Blimey, there’s more chance of Manchester coming out of tier 3 than this run verifying.

 

[Johnp]

We really need to see heights increasing in the GIN sea area (Greenland-Iceland-Norway) to get the full monty. 

Edited December 17, 2020 by Johnp

[Matt H]

Please just for once in your life be right.

[northwestsnow]

LOL.

[Mike Poole]

WHAT!  GFS T222:

[Weathizard]

The 192 on the 12z wasn’t bad in itself tbh but the 18z has definitely been on the Christmas sherry’s! Mary Jesus and all that’s holy  

the difference between the two PV wise is farcical to be honest

Edited December 17, 2020 by Weathizard

[tight isobar]

On a serious note; this is fastly becoming reflective.. via all support data.!! 

Edited December 17, 2020 by tight isobar

[Griff]

Not a classic toppler, was it, after all? 

[Zak M]

Boom!

   

If the 18z GFS verifies then it could potentially be the best end to December we've had in quite a few years!

Edited December 17, 2020 by Zak M

[Ice Day]

Seeing some 'proper' cold in Europe on this run.... just need to find that tap!

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Be wary of how neartime FI is, the quick flattening of some recent runs aren’t a given.  GFS 18 z will be superb, ECM I actually is ok too

 BFTP

[Griff]

Just now, Zak M said:

Boom!

   

If the 18z GFA verifies then it could potentially be the best end to December we've had in quite a few years!

Just not having to see the in laws makes up for some of 2020

[Allseasons-Si]

The difference being that that trough broke away just like the UKMO did in the early stages, if this verifies,i commend the UKMO

and certainly a break we need. 

[Uncertainty]

Could we even link up with @Griff’s ‘old friend’ the Arctic high? It sure feels old given how long it’s final destination has been shrouded in mystery. That’d be a cold lock in  all right.

A rather large part of me feels like the above  chart verifying is impossible, but I’ll enjoy it all the same

 

 

Edited December 17, 2020 by Uncertainy

[chionomaniac]

All I am left thinking is that there is plenty of time for this to improve further still with further runs

[Sweatyman]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

The 192 on the 12z wasn’t bad in itself tbh but the 18z has definitely been on the Christmas sherry’s! Mary Jesus and all that’s holy  

the difference between the two PV wise is farcical to be honest

So tomorrow mornings massive downgrade shouldn't matter too much

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The difference being that that trough broke away just like the UKMO did in the early stages, if this verifies,i commend the UKMO

and certainly a break we need. 

Where did it break away on UKMO.. I question uk 144. 120 and below would be helpful