Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted (edited)

ECM 12z not far off from the GFS at day 10, perhaps a trend emerging. ECM chart first.

13CD335D-6B08-4E58-83E6-11E6F9493884.png

4C9D1361-4F65-4645-B1A9-40BB6A668AC0.png

Edited by Frosty Winter
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Yep

ECM and gfs at day ten...

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.b26a54c56ce6c0089fc0e1ab555f5a1e.gifgfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.7a9f5cd55cbe9c55ed021755d7586f2e.png

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

Agree Can't see ECM being right in this evolution.

Can I ask why? The Atlantic high is being regularly forecast be it a mid Atlantic one. Gfs showed a similar scenario with the jet on a sse trajectory. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Get a load a that! 

ECH1-240 (2).gif

The snowy cold air is still way North of Scotland though and it looks transient. 

Would probably go East before we tapped into proper cold.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Wouldn’t mind this being right!...

DA3C325D-7CA8-4A52-8C12-41483BE91BEB.png

Sorry to be that guy, but it's not that cold really - just unpleasant.

Come and hit me with the confused emojis, I can take it

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sebastiaan1973 Experienced

sebastiaan1973

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Sorry to be that guy, but it's not that cold really - just unpleasant.

Come and hit me with the confused emojis, I can take it

Can't see the pleasure of that either. A fat, red pimple at the heart of the Atlantic Ocean. And 2-3 degrees below zero at 850 hPa.

ECMOPUK12_240_2.png

Edited by sebastiaan1973
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Sorry to be that guy, but it's not that cold really - just unpleasant.

Come and hit me with the confused emojis, I can take it

Yep, GFS was a good deal colder, maybe taking that extra day or two allowed the cold to flood south.  But it is all moot for the moment, the uncertainties are way earlier than day 10.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Well thank goodness..the ECM 12z op still shows a cold shot and thank god Exeter included the word snow in their latest update, I thought I was going crazy..well I am crazy but you know what I mean!..there’s been plenty of support for a cold shot later next week but diddly squat mention of it officially..until today..anyway, enough waffle from me..here’s the charts!

4A904214-A86E-4DEA-B25E-CBA4E1D3081D.thumb.png.26e65a946ab34c222a0fccb04ea3e433.png0248244B-F993-4D57-9D04-178442A2BB11.thumb.png.915c7ce9514be06c783f97bbb3171b10.png138390C6-BA4F-4338-B8FC-EF32B09C70A7.thumb.png.accc70f67aff71297b137ef1f3d929ba.png316D1ADC-A461-4ACB-B98B-6907E3C2AF22.thumb.png.0a98765661dd08322d4b340e16072711.pngCAA2D9C3-7D90-42ED-8847-14ABCEAD064A.thumb.png.89ad1a20dbd24ebf70a1fa965e5f5d76.pngDD65E1CD-A710-4B01-A152-A884E0AD4D88.thumb.png.96ac846d49a43b38d8360a4e933256a3.png6505E4AE-8BA9-44E2-B7AF-D8BD7312410D.jpeg.92c9254c9e6da80b3f62fbc3f7edcecf.jpeg

..

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Can't see the pleasure of that either. A fat, red pimple at the heart of the Atlantic Ocean.

ECMOPUK12_240_2.png

Better than a constant barrage of blue wet ones

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Can't see the pleasure of that either. A fat, red pimple at the heart of the Atlantic Ocean.

ECMOPUK12_240_2.png

My main concern is that everything seems to be trending very 'mid latitude'. We need that SSW IMO.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)

Altho the outlook does show the jet on a sse trajectory I'm struggling to see the excitement even at day ten with a mid latitude Atlantic high. Granted its not a raging south westerly and could in theory migrate nnw. The PV is weak ete and the bar is set low but I wouldn't be getting to carried tbh.

Edited by swfc
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted (edited)

Difficult to pin down anything at the moment!

Christmas Eve/ Christmas Day looks cool/cold. The importance of that initial Atlantic low has become less important for the bigger picture IMO. 

Then we have this new idea of the Azores high ballooning! Hopefully this idea will lead to a ‘mega ridge’ that will eventually head north and give all those longer range ensemble means some credence.

GFS and ECM at 216

3A06F178-B547-46D0-808F-23C184C92607.thumb.png.ef8dee46c7aaa8745ffcebbb5f600be5.pngABE11340-4FFE-4565-A554-8399F5300793.thumb.png.a5d608c9cb76c34310ad200f3d87f3d9.png

Somethings afoot I reckon, actually really enjoying this period of model watching. Every run giving something new to watch. 

Edited by chris55
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
9 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

ECM 12z not far off from the GFS at day 10, perhaps a trend emerging. ECM chart first.

 

GFS miles better unfortunately.

10 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Get a load a that! 

ECH1-240 (2).gif

Yes, a load of -3c uppers and an emerging PV over Greenland - poor run IMO.

image.thumb.png.766049cb13cf9ad27878f6b6a4d77dfc.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Can i ask why peeps are talking about the 850's temps on a day ten chart when in reality it could be a lot colder or a lot warmer?

 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC went down like a fart in an elevator.

Lots of rain, that system on the 23rd looks ominous,a brief colder interlude then more rain incoming.

Thanks but no thanks.

I've got a feeling the 46 is not going to be agreeing with it. Settled looks the most likely option too me.

The GFS ens not to bad for it remaining pretty cold...the pressure chart looks like the lie detector test Donald Trump had to take after claiming he had won the election..

Either way I feel colder and more settled is the favourite through the Xmas period.

graphe4_1000_298_122___.png

graphe3_1000_298_122___.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Can i ask why peeps are talking about the 850's temps on a day ten chart when in reality it could be a lot colder or a lot warmer?

 

Well that's what the charts are showing at the moment. I'm sure we'd be discussing it if they showed -10c uppers. 

The problem with these really deep systems is they tend to suck a lot of mild air up in to their circulation. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted

What we really need for a quicker route to cold is for this trough I have circled in black to disrupt - which I think Nick expected to happen. 

 

40613543-F0C0-4770-A8D1-BE21B18ACFFD.jpeg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

My main concern is that everything seems to be trending very 'mid latitude'. We need that SSW IMO.

Again, i repeat, a tell tale sign the atmosphere just isn't primed for HLB, when the models revert back to mid lat highs as T0 gets nearer, that may change with the upcoming E.Asian torque event, that will do the SPV some harm but its a waiting game, the AAM chart posted a few days ago wasn't a sharp enough rise.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Anthony Burden Seasoned

Anthony Burden

Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
Posted

Matt Hugo not happy with ECM even calling them names, Not going along with their 12z 

never known such uncertainty in short forecasting terms ie 96 hrs to 144hrs.

Still no signs of low pressure on UKMO 144 hrs great watching no certainty for Christmas 

continued and of course after.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...