Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[swfc]

Gfs 12z pretty much in line with the 6z at the 2oo hr mark. Makes a change even tho it is a bit rank

[Drifter]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS the slightly more amplified at this point, could go on to be decent.

Narrator: “It did not go on to be decent”

 

[PolarWarsaw]

Slightly better in the short term from the charts so far today, Christmas day more likely to be chilly than wet and mild. 

Mid-term increased signs of the Vortex potentially returning home, with increased strenght and hints of stronger euro heights. Only hints at the minute, but once they appear they normally pick up at speed through the models, I expect us to trend towards a mild and wet new year. Today's 12Z GFS, looks ominously like last night's 'Winter is over' 18z GFS. Let's hope not.

Plenty to play for - still, absolutely odds on that 99.9% of the nation see's no falling or accumulating snow this December. Would be a sad end to a terrible year. 

Edited December 17, 2020 by PolarWarsaw

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Not massively different to the 18z

Actually you're right, it's just moved north, due to more amplification, pattern actually looks the same. More or less lol.

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Howie said:

The pv is reforming over Greenland, not good

It's more amplified towards the Gin Corridor at 216...

 

[TSNWK]

I feel that out to 222 this run is pretty much the same as the 06z which is something itself, maybe a little quicker with  shift of the Atlantic ridge through on Boxing Day ish..

looks a bit sharper upstream, be interesting to see where this one lands.

Edited December 17, 2020 by TSNWK

[Matt H]

Looks like the GFS is trying to set up another northerly shot in FI, could be far worse than this in my opinion.

[nick sussex]

Still disagreements with the shortwave energy at day 6 .

The UKMO keeps  the one to the sw cut off which then fills , the GFS takes this ne .

The UKMO has a kink in the isobars over northern England with colder air moving se and a cleaner evolution .

 

[Weathizard]

It’s certainly starting to look like it might take two bites of amplification, which I saw many experienced members talking about a couple of days ago. I have a feeling FI could go mental here.

[Daniel*]

I must applaud this consistency from GFS i can’t believe my eyes - is it latching onto a new signal?

[snowspotter]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

It's more amplified towards the Gin Corridor at 216...

 

With all due respect the vortex was over there in December 1962 around this time so I wouldn’t get too upset . (Responding to Howie) 

Edited December 17, 2020 by snowspotter

[Tom Jarvis]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Still disagreements with the shortwave energy at day 6 .

The UKMO keeps  the one to the sw cut off which then fills , the GFS takes this ne .

The UKMO has a kink in the isobars over northern England with colder air moving se and a cleaner evolution .

 

Nick I think that low is the key to keeping the high intact and stop it collapsing over us. If we keep it in the Azores then it can provide a route for undercutting lows to take. Until this feature is modelled correctly then FI is from that point.  

Edited December 17, 2020 by Tom Jarvis

[Howie]

2 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

With all due respect the vortex was over there in December 1962 around this time so I wouldn’t get too upset . (Responding to Howie) 

Noted!

[swfc]

Day ten wouldn't be great on the 12z gfs. Possible flooding on the east coast ete

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Still disagreements with the shortwave energy at day 6 .

The UKMO keeps  the one to the sw cut off which then fills , the GFS takes this ne .

The UKMO has a kink in the isobars over northern England with colder air moving se and a cleaner evolution .

 

Yep not sure about after, but that short wave is better staying shallow and going south like the ukmo, as to what it will do, it's still answers on a post card please.

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

With all due respect the vortex was over there in December 1962 around this time so I wouldn’t get too upset . 

Who is getting upset?

anyway the trop pv is paying us a visit...

mountaineers be warned

 

 

[TSNWK]

This looks rough but again very similar to previous run although it does look noticeable more sharper around the tip of Greenland.

[sheikhy]

Jesus christ thats literally a whole polar vortex about to smash into britain at 258 hours!!!!very good 12z runs so far!!if the gfs can push the shortwaves between 120 and 144 hours further south somewhere across central uk could see snow along the boundary!!!

[seabreeze86]

Might be a bit choppy down the North Sea coasts 

[Zak M]

12z GFS - Holy moly

   

Edited December 17, 2020 by Zak M

[Man With Beard]

GFS continues to give a sniff of white Christmas opportunities (more to do with back-edge snow on Christmas Eve lasting till morning) but we're still too far out for such detail. If you mentally imagine everything shifted either 200 miles west or 500 miles east, you'll probably cover the extent of the envelope.

Tasty northerly in FI!

[Mike Poole]

15 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Narrator: “It did not go on to be decent”

 

GFS 12z at T276:

There’s still a lot of uncertainty in the way this evolves, fascinating. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Crikey!!!

[Matt H]

No doubt someone will be turning up to moan about the uppers being too marginal for snow in a minute.

[BarometerCat]

Interesting GFS 12z at +252.   That low is not shifting much in following frames! 

Edited December 17, 2020 by B-C