Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Cheshire Freeze]

Control run gets quite toasty too

[northwestsnow]

Xmas into view now ,EC just coming out, I'd take a frosty high right now ...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

48 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Part of the reason I follow Matt is the amount of info he is happy to share.

Just hope he doesn't mind myself,and others passing it on.

UKMO 144 looks knife edge...

Ohhh thats ok Mate,I always like to share the Love

Not so sure about Santa clause is coming to town,but the Vortex maybe coming! Its so displaced this year,and its obviously got a major case of St Vitus dance  

Edited December 17, 2020 by MATTWOLVES

[MAF]

@MATTWOLVES unless you suffer from St Vitus, in which case the similarities are not appropriate 

Sydenham's chorea, also known as chorea minor and historically and occasionally referred to as St Vitus' dance, is a disorder characterized by rapid, uncoordinated jerking movements primarily affecting the face, hands and feet.  
 

 

Edited December 17, 2020 by MAF

[Battleground Snow]

Next frame will be interesting at 168.

Ecm split the low at 144?

 

[Daniel*]

Still got low delaying cold air but more amplified in Atlantic. 
 

[Howie]

Not looking good on the ECM

[Daniel*]

Just now, Howie said:

Not looking good on the ECM

Not looking good for mild lovers? 

[Snowman.]

ECM Todays 12z vs Yesterdays

 

Better amplifcation, probably due to the better ridge over alaska. Can we get a Scandi wedge? 

 

 

Edited December 17, 2020 by Snowman.

[nick sussex]

The ECM drops the shortwave which popped up this morning over the eastern coast of the USA at day 6 .

That phased with the one moving east out of the mid west which then effected the mid Atlantic troughing and flattened that on the morning run.

Edited December 17, 2020 by nick sussex

[Allseasons-Si]

ECM looks good at 144...

[Howie]

Just now, Daniel* said:

Not looking good for mild lovers? 

I definitely misinterpreted the chart lol

[Snowman.]

Again todays vs yesterdays

[Matt H]

4 minutes ago, Howie said:

Not looking good on the ECM

Yeah if you’re a coldie in Greece.

[Tom Jarvis]

Looks like UKMO is the odd one out at t144 regarding the low in the Azores. I actually think that that low is important. 

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Snowman. said:

Again todays vs yesterdays

Will it topple into scandi or become a UK high?

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, Howie said:

I definitely misinterpreted the chart lol

The attention up to T144 is not on what is modelled for the UK, it is upstream re the development of the Atlantic ridge, at T168, we can start thinking about impacts on the UK:

Looks amplified, result = northerly.

Edited December 17, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Howie]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

The attention up to T144 is not on what is modelled for the UK, it is upstream re the development of the Atlantic ridge, at T168, we can start thinking about impacts on the UK:

Looks amplified, result = northerly.

Thank you! I'm still very new to this 

[Sweatyman]

1 hour ago, Zak M said:

12z GFS - Holy moly

   

I'm sure someone would say it not cold enough for snow!

[Tim Bland]

ECM has rain turning to snow for some as it clears south 23rd / 24th 

[nick sussex]

The evolution from day 7 to 8 just looks suspect .

The energy is moving ne between day 6 and 7 with the phasing of those two lows and then all of a sudden shunts rapidly east on day 8.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM is terrible but really this is a month before we really expected any real snow depth for any significantly wide area of the country anyway.

Edited December 17, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM going for a gfs evolution at day nine...

sorry for quick post's,just a tad busy.

 

[blizzard81]

Absolutely brilliant chart. It's like the usual dynamics of the northern hemisphere are being ripped up and torn to shreds. 

[Johnp]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The evolution from day 7 to 8 just looks suspect .

The energy is moving ne between day 6 and 7 with the phasing of those two lows and then all of a sudden shunts rapidly east on day 8.

 

I was just about to say the same, I felt the same this morning. 

Sorry ECM - you're wrong!