Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[chionomaniac]

It will still be a toppler, but the higher it gets the colder the air that topples with it

[Allseasons-Si]

Blimey!!!

how many have just commented on the gfs at the same time,it's like being at the races

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

It will still be a toppler, but the higher it gets the colder the air that topples with it

Its going to bring a very cold Christmas mate.

 

[Tom Jarvis]

Now we will see were this leads to with weather or not we get undercutting lows 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

It will still be a toppler, but the higher it gets the colder the air that topples with it

Less toppling than the 12z that's for sure Ed

weeny baby steps

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

It will still be a toppler, but the higher it gets the colder the air that topples with it

Next attack right in behind T162, and from the earlier runs that is the is one to watch:

[TSNWK]

Has it gained enough height to flop into scandi like gem........

[Griff]

Anyone have any thoughts on the placing of the remains of the old artic High on this run, seems to be further south and more of a feature? Just curious... 

[markw2680]

Right now I’m a very confused man.

thought I was getting there with the models but blimey I don’t know whether I’m coming or going

[snowbob]

I’m sure @Steve Murr said that the gfs would finally stop playing silly buggers come the 18z

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Next attack right in behind T162, and from the earlier runs that is the is one to watch:

Yep we can have a better toppler and improved round 2. Win/win scenario

[northwestsnow]

Come on GFS I take back all the grief over the years if you have this right !!

[sheikhy]

Somethings brewing guys❄!!or are we gona be brought back down to earth in the morning

[Mike Poole]

Hold your horses, the whole damn lot is coming down from the NW:

GFS T186

[chionomaniac]

Look at the 850s west of Greenland. Big thumbs up

[feb1991blizzard]

Just when you get ready to load up with a massive back of a non-white xmas, the 18z is gonna be a stonker.

[northwestsnow]

Be nice if we see a cluster of ens follow 18z ..

 

[Allseasons-Si]

That Azores low that broke away is propping height's further north on this run,watch the amps in the Atlantic!

[Ice Day]

Yep, it's gone mad again!  Could be a stonker coming up here!

Another possible, but improbable route.  However, all options remain on the table so that's a definite positive.

[syed2878]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

We are going to need some amplication in the Atlantic,basically.

beit mjo, the mountain Torgues,SSW I dont care which to be honest.

Absolutely do not want to see EC verify.

 knowing our luck over the last few winters it will be sods law that the ECM with the poor output that verifies you couldn’t make this up.

[chris55]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Blooming hell trying to go through 50 ensembles is head banging...i pointed out that the mean was not great regarding cold..but there are a fair few colder members out towards the 1st week of January...some have serious Heights to the North and low Heights over Southern Europe.. I've just viewed a few runs with sub zero air in place of us...

So early conclusions....plenty of options on the table and I wouldn't rule out any outcome, Now I see why Exeter forecasts are low confidence into next year, we could make a case for anything goes..I wouldn't rule out really mild,or really cold tbh...but obviously I would be happier with the cold.

 

Ensemble members are purposely run with incorrect/manipulated starting data.....

The sole purpose of running them is to allow the informed interpretation of the likelihood/accuracy of the main operational run. 
They are not individual forecasts,  they are a tool to decipher the confidence in the Operational run. 
Taking each ensemble member individually is useless. 
I know it’s interesting to look at the members individually but it’s not a great forecast tool  

[Tom Jarvis]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Come on GFS I take back all the grief over the years if you have this right !!

GFS has only just got it right the UKMO was there first. 

[Uncertainty]

EC clusters actually quite revealing tonight. after days of too many or too little to make sense of. The headline is: a big fat euro trough. Or at least, for those feeing pedantic, a lack of persistent euro heights.

This straight away tells you there is interest in the charts for those of a cold loving disposition. A slug is a hopeless, persistent winter waster and flood maker. It’s absence paves the way for low pressure to dive into Europe, the angle of which determining the surface weather we receive. On the latest GFS iteration, given the better amplitude, we  are surely expecting an even bigger and straighter drop of the low into Europe day 9 and 10?

Sure looks that way!

PS this is becoming a real saga... if the  ECM doesn’t drop that SW low and associated lower amplitude ridge in the morning then surely it has this nailed. If it does finally give it up then charts such as those above become eminently possible!

Edited December 17, 2020 by Uncertainy

[Matt H]

Blimey, there’s more chance of Manchester coming out of tier 3 than this run verifying.

[Lampostwatcher]

This is the run we have been waiting for ❄❄❄