Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Skullzrulerz]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

16-30 Day GFS ensemble has Greenland ridging into Jan. 

Someone posted this on twitter not long ago 

This is good news to see that high pressure is close to Greenland!

Though a lot of uncertainty in the short and median term 

[PolarWarsaw]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM is terrible but really this is a month before we really expected any real snow depth for any significantly wide area of the country anyway.

Who? Do we have telepathic members amongst us? 

Before winter started virtually every pro favoured a front loaded winter, the strat and trop to couple after New Year and leave us locked with Atlantic weather through January and most of February? So far you would argue they have been correct, high pressure and snow inducing uppers just haven't landed for us. If that forecast continues to be anywhere near accurate, then it spells bad news for us. 

The only significant thing that has happened, is we have wasted good NH patterns with wet dross at the surface and as usual that similar delaying motion that happens every single winter without fail has started to creep in. In mid November it was the turn of the month, then the middle of December, then for the last two weeks it's been all about the Christmas period and new year...now we are on to January and potentially even longer? No disrespect to you mate as I admire your posts and have followed yourself and @CreweCold for years, but we are falling slowly into the same winter musings as we do every year.....delay, delay, delay - then it's the end of March and the first T-shirt day is being is the hot topic of discussion.

Anyway, on to the models.

I actually like tonight's 12z outputs. Even if not snowy, they are borderline between rain/snow and a visit from the PV would be most welcome, at least it would feel a bit like winter and the weather at the surface would be quite exciting. There's an emerging movement creeping into this forum for what I'd call 'Anti-weather', a craving for endless, dry, boring days during Summer and then an 'at least it's dry though' tone added to every post throughout winter. Where's the excitement in chasing and hoping for the most mundane weather imaginable?

 This is an active weather forum. Not a mother's meeting about the weather suiting lifestyles. 

On to the 18z, hopefully the exciting tone continues.  

Edited December 17, 2020 by PolarWarsaw

[LeonH18]

Good evening everyone, 

How are you all?, 

Hope you're well. I woke up this morning to these charts...

These charts could mean a toppler with further runs going well.

Thanks, Leon

 

[northwestsnow]

Im pondering if we are going to see a split in the vortex later this month....

Is there scope for a split or displacement of the main segment into Scandy ...

Edited December 17, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Penrith Snow]

6 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Who? The telepathic gang? 

Before winter started virtually every pro favoured a front loaded winter, the strat and trop to couple after New Year and leave us locked with Atlantic weather through January and most of February? So far you would argue they have been correct, high pressure and snow inducing uppers just haven't landed for us. If that forecast continues to be anywhere near accurate, then it spells bad news for us. 

The only significant thing that has happened, is we have wasted good NH patterns with wet dross at the surface and as usual that similar delaying motion that happens every single winter without fail has started to creep in. In mid November it was the turn of the month, then the middle of December, then for the last two weeks it's been all about the Christmas period and new year...now we are on to January and potentially even longer? No disrespect to you mate as I admire your posts and have followed yourself and @CreweCold for years, but we are falling slowly into the same winter musings as we do every year.....delay, delay, delay - then it's March and the first T-shirt day is being touted is the hot topic of discussion.

Anyway, on to the models.

I actually like tonight's 12z outputs. Even if not snowy, they are borderline between rain/snow and a visit from the PV would be most welcome, at least it would feel a bit like winter and the weather at the surface would be quite exciting. There's an emerging movement creeping into this forum for what I'd call 'Anti-weather', a craving for endless, dry, boring days during Summer and then an 'at least it's dry though' tone added to every post throughout winter. Where's the excitement in chasing and hoping for the most mundane weather imaginable?

 This is an active weather forum. Not a mother's meeting about the weather suiting lifestyles. 

On to the 18z, hopefully the exciting tone continues.  

Very good post and as if to make it even more of a typical winter the yanks get a New York blizzard  All we need now is a UK High and a Greek snowstorm special  and this winter really will shape up like recent ones.

Anyway, I  also agree about the desire for some exciting weather and in this regard the ECM is good with plenty of proper weather on offer. I think come the day the uppers during that second northerly will be a lot lower with lowland snow more widespread in the North.

Andy

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im pondering if we are going to see a split in the vortex later this month....

Is there scope for a split or displacement of the main segment into Scandy ...

GEFS/Eps .. Stark!!   These formats.. are profound @blocking-vortex parting/obliteration!!..   the devil in the details @ our drop point are all imo needed to be scrutinised...  a fine place to sit right now.. and likely a better as we gain... into /around Christmas!!!  Old man winter has been missing us.. and is trying HARD, to come say hi

[tight isobar]

Let’s see what the rampton run has on offer.. via raw @18z .

Edited December 17, 2020 by tight isobar

[Tom Jarvis]

So icon still sides with the UKMO with its 18z run. Keeping the low in the Azores

[Frosty.]

The cfs is looking preety cold in FI!

[feb1991blizzard]

14 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Who? Do we have telepathic members amongst us? 

Before winter started virtually every pro favoured a front loaded winter, the strat and trop to couple after New Year and leave us locked with Atlantic weather through January and most of February? So far you would argue they have been correct, high pressure and snow inducing uppers just haven't landed for us. If that forecast continues to be anywhere near accurate, then it spells bad news for us. 

The only significant thing that has happened, is we have wasted good NH patterns with wet dross at the surface and as usual that similar delaying motion that happens every single winter without fail has started to creep in. In mid November it was the turn of the month, then the middle of December, then for the last two weeks it's been all about the Christmas period and new year...now we are on to January and potentially even longer? No disrespect to you mate as I admire your posts and have followed yourself and @CreweCold for years, but we are falling slowly into the same winter musings as we do every year.....delay, delay, delay - then it's the end of March and the first T-shirt day is being is the hot topic of discussion.

Anyway, on to the models.

I actually like tonight's 12z outputs. Even if not snowy, they are borderline between rain/snow and a visit from the PV would be most welcome, at least it would feel a bit like winter and the weather at the surface would be quite exciting. There's an emerging movement creeping into this forum for what I'd call 'Anti-weather', a craving for endless, dry, boring days during Summer and then an 'at least it's dry though' tone added to every post throughout winter. Where's the excitement in chasing and hoping for the most mundane weather imaginable?

 This is an active weather forum. Not a mother's meeting about the weather suiting lifestyles. 

On to the 18z, hopefully the exciting tone continues.  

I was always dubious over the usual nina front loaded this year, i expected a very brief window of opportunity up front and then right at the last knockins of Feb, now much more optimistic of a good chunk of Feb being decent, the nina could well be very weak a lot quicker than models initially had it, remember 18 but not only that, i did some re-analysing years ago and found that moderate to weak nina or enso neutral on the nina side Febs are very strongly correlated with Easterlies, remember as well that many a cold spring has occured following strong enso events on both sides, so logic would say if they subside quicker then the cold can be brought foreward, in fact if we would have had an E-qbo and the nina would have been only a tad weaker from the start, or more East based i would have been calling a severely cold second half of winter (in terms of longjevity)

[Vikos]

In our german forum we say, if there is a single member showing a mild solution (in winter) it will win the race. Because "Mild Always Wins" (MAW). Singularity rule #1.

[northwestsnow]

ICON indeed follows UKMO...

Hmmmmm.

Edited December 17, 2020 by northwestsnow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The EC46 mean is making a call for mainly settled conditions through the Xmas period,especially away from far Northern areas...so perhaps frosty will be the best call for resembling white..Lower Heights to the North may become more of a player as we enter the New Year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 17, 2020 by MATTWOLVES

[Kentspur]

Fear not people the ECweeklies still look very promising into January- New year week in particular is very cold and even after this theres some positive features potentially supporting cold Easterlies and Northerlies too, not one week milder than average showing right through to 1st Feb!

 

These are weeks 1 and 2 temp anomalies followed by mean sea level pressure patterns

Edited December 17, 2020 by Kentspur

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

Fear not people the ECweeklies still lol very promising into January New year week in particular is very cold and even after this theres some positive features and not one week milder than average showing right through to 1st Feb!

The EC46 mean is showing nothing of the sort at this stage...Lower Heights to the N/NW..

[Sweatyman]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

The EC46 mean is showing nothing of the sort at this stage...Lower Heights to the N/NW..

EC this EC that! Which is which? Not the same model then?

[Kentspur]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

The EC46 mean is showing nothing of the sort at this stage...Lower Heights to the N/NW..

Week 2with the lower pressure over Italy is always a positive

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

The EC46 mean is showing nothing of the sort at this stage...Lower Heights to the N/NW..

Really!  With its track record?  Then we can all look forward to some snow

[Matt H]

12 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The cfs is looking preety cold in FI!

Only 2 months to wait for it to verify.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Really!  With its track record?  Then we can all look forward to some snow

Mike the ECM mean as never pointed to significant cold for some weeks..and its been pretty close to the mark,I'm pretty sure there would be hints from Exeter if it were to go very cold. I'm surprised how many discount this model and instead keep ranting about every GFS and icon run l,which in fairness are wrong every day.

[Griff]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ICON indeed follows UKMO...

Hmmmmm.

Just trying to catch up, who's good cop and who's bad cop, or are they all crooked?  

Edited December 17, 2020 by Griff

[Tom Jarvis]

Chaps we have differences at t120 which greatly affect the pattern afterwards we need to watch this circled low for what it does before we can properly understand what is happening going forward. 

[Day_9]

5 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Only 2 months to wait for it to verify.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Mike the ECM mean as never pointed to significant cold for some weeks..and its been pretty close to the mark,I'm pretty sure there would be hints from Exeter if it were to go very cold. I'm surprised how many discount this model and instead keep ranting about every GFS and icon run l,which in fairness are wrong every day.

The ECM EPS mean (the one we mortals see) has given some probability for cold scenarios for quite a while, and still does so today. Given the massive upfront uncertainty, highlighted in earlier post, do you think that a lower resolution model (which I assume the 46 is, happy to be corrected if not) will have a better idea, Matt?

[lorenzo]

Lets call 144 from the 12z at the limits of the envelope for the GFS 12 z

There is the wave break and the resultant distribution of energy as the filament whips across NE US... let's see what the 18z does... EC had several clusters, hazard that it will take a couple of days for models to settle on resolution here.