Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[Captain Shortwave]

A weak area of cut off heights close to Iceland certainly looks plausible given the deep U.K. trough and Atlantic ridge. Worth watching as getting an area of high pressure into that location should allow Arctic air to move towards us from the north east through Scandinavia. Good effort from the pub run with the airmass over NW becoming increasingly cold in time.

 

If this is the trend, expect a different alignment on that warm air advection to develop. More vertical (north/south) compared to the tilt shown here that drifts the high east. As such the final destination will be close to Iceland, instead of Scandinavia on this run.

Edited December 22, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[Matt H]

Finally some more decent uppers!

[Kasim Awan]

Notice the uppers @ 200h. The initial cool spell leaving improved surface parameters. Upshot - less impressive synoptics will be capable of wintry weather post 200h.

[phil nw.]

As Steve pointed out. That little wedge helps to feed colder air off the main vortex south. 

[Vikos]

I like this 18z as itpushes subtropic air to east quite fast... seams they will have some summer days

[Kasim Awan]

GFS Is..

[Scott Ingham]

Trending Icelandic heights are now becoming apparent. 

Cold building in situ unfolding.

Momentum is building 

[frosty ground]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

GFS Is..

With that slight northwesterly drift into the NW England that would generate some rather sharp snow showers even at the coast 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

GFS Is..

With better/colder uppers

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Trending Icelandic heights are now becoming apparent. 

Cold building in situ unfolding.

Momentum is building 

Looks like it might topple on this one but holds longer, I was willing it to push northwards! 

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Trending Icelandic heights are now becoming apparent. 

Cold building in situ unfolding.

Momentum is building 

Think we've found a good solution for a potential final synoptic evolution?. The credibility is there both in terms of synoptically validity & in model support.

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Griff said:

Looks like it might topple on this one but holds longer, I was willing it to push northwards! 

168 - 240 is moving in the right direction. 

Im not looking any further mate.

I feel its the type of spell that will continue to improve its mid term

[Mike Poole]

This at T216, day 9, what’s not to like, even if you are jittery about uppers?

Looks a snow fest for many from here.

Edited December 22, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Scott Ingham]

6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Think we've found a good solution for a potential final synoptic evolution?. The credibility is there both in terms of synoptically validity & in model support.

Agreed. 

Its logical. Seemed like it theorising 10 days ago and the model run looks roughly right 

Lets see, its enjoyable to watch!

Theres also another run pushing for the Griceland ridge first week in January! @Allseasons-si

Edited December 22, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

168 - 240 is moving in the right direction. 

Im not looking any further mate.

I feel its the type of spell that will continue to improve its mid term

Waiting to see what the ensemble mean looks like

[Winterdarkness]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

This at T216, day 9, what’s not to like, even if you are jittery about uppers?

Looks a snow fest for many from here.

Including The south? 

[Kasim Awan]

Many would be dubious about the 160-200 synoptics verifying if we were starting from scratch i.e. a flat westerly flow..

But we already have, now in the reliable, the "starting" synoptics which would likely yield and definitely support this outcome. So my confidence is elevated.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Winterdarkness said:

Including The south? 

On those charts, good chance, elevation will help!

[Weathizard]

Stick a fork in me, I’m done! Bank this run please  

[Jason T]

Probably wrong thread for this, change happening already,  misty..proged Temps for tomorrow max13c apparently.. What view in theory, could be much more in reality.. Who knows..?

[Matt H]

GFS really is providing the entertainment during these dark coronavirus times.

[Battleground Snow]

Finally @Scott Ingham 

[Allseasons-Si]

That W Russian block is getting stronger with every run i have noticed.

it could be a game player later down the line.

 

[Griff]

144 (or there abouts) ... Thou shalt not look beyond... As the youths say, just trying to keep it real. Did I mention my respect for GFSP? 

Is this agreement?  

Edited December 22, 2020 by Griff

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Finally @Scott Ingham 

Very long way out but yeah! Good to see an idea 10 days ago getting looked at by the models!