Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Do high res models such as UKV have more data on the variables required for snow than say the ECM? Ie does GFS & ECM have less data available to accurately calculate the likelihood of snow making it to ground level ? and for high res models that show it (ie Euro4) more accurately predict accumulation?  In a few days we will have a host of high res models to start looking at ! That will keep us from having to talk to our families in-between model runs

Their main advantage is that they are higher resolution!  The grid blocks are smaller so they can resolve things that the likes of GFS just can’t.  I’m not sure they represent much more physics.  I’m looking forward to seeing how HARMONIE (daughter of HIRLAM) performs in this setup.  And it will keep me from talking to myself, as I live alone through this Covid nightmare!  

[Griff]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Dont read the met office contingency planning update.

Its a wash out ...

I thought it was from 2019 when I first read it.

Just saw a comedy tweet with Matt Hugo bashing the MetO winter outlook and their strat modelling... 

On a more model watching related note, quite surprised to see the word snawww being mentioned here, there and everywhere today, where as 24 hours ago everyone was being far more sheepish.

It has been commented here for a while that things might become more favourable into next week.

Very interesting to watch even those being more dismissive just days ago on netweather and social media are slowly becoming open to the idea, particularly in regards to the strat, although I suspect some are simply using reverse psychology or desperately trying to limit their own excitement and possible disappointment - each to their own, but in case there's any doubt, we get it IT'S A MARGINAL SETUP!!!

FYI I never knew that high pressure in Mongolia was important to me.. butterfly wings etc.

 

Tomorrow is my last day of work, after a couple of weeks waking at 5am... all I have to do now is resist staying up and getting wired watching the pub run.

The wood yard delivered the logs for the wood burner, the deli has supplied cheese and crackers, and I'm still hoping for a ski with @Mike Poole down Watlington Hill at some point in the next couple of weeks 

 

[Frosty.]

The cfs looks interesting in FI...this could be a looong winter folks!

 

[Just Before Dawn]

22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I cannot believe this is out so early.  Maybe it relates to runs by their own models before GFS was shown to have predicted the upcoming spell better, much better.  They don’t look much at the GFS, but this for Jan-Mar:

Can I get 20/1 on the cold option then?  Is that how it works?  I’d put £1000 on tomorrow!

It's worth remembering who this is aimed at - emergency and resource planners who use it mainly to justify moving stuff about and deciding whether they need to start budgeting for overtime. From my experience, it's a useful-ish planning tool, but you need to read it in conjunction with the one month outlook for it to have any real value. The one month outlook for Jan for example states modest reduction in the chance of a colder-than-average Jan, but likely colder than the last few years. Still, I think it's fair to say it's still treated as a bit of an experiment by some of my colleagues.

It was issued Yesterday, by the way.

Edited December 22, 2020 by Just Before Dawn
post-Bailey's spelling apocalypse

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Mike the long range EC anomalies point to an above average temperature winter on the whole.. but this was last updated on the 5th of December.. im hoping the update for January is better..another thing worth mentioning is the fact some of these Long Rangers may have the Global Warming aspect programmed into them,like the met super computer. This could be another reason they go above average more often than not.

..

Thanks.  No, they won’t have anything to do with global warming programmed in, Matt, the seasonal models just like the ones we watch day to day, will just take the starting conditions and model the physics forward.  Simples.  That is what they do.  

[Man With Beard]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Notice a sig difference of around 20mb in slp ! 

That will help this time round!

[Scott Ingham]

9 minutes ago, Griff said:

Just saw a comedy tweet with Matt Hugo bashing the MetO winter outlook and their strat modelling... 

On a more model watching related note, quite surprised to see the word snawww being mentioned here, there and everywhere today, where as 24 hours ago everyone was being far more sheepish.

It has been commented here for a while that things might become more favourable into next week.

Very interesting to watch even those being more dismissive just days ago on netweather and social media are slowly becoming open to the idea, particularly in regards to the strat, although I suspect some are simply using reverse psychology or desperately trying to limit their own excitement and possible disappointment - each to their own, but in case there's any doubt, we get it IT'S A MARGINAL SETUP!!!

FYI I never knew that high pressure in Mongolia was important to me.. butterfly wings etc.

 

Tomorrow is my last day of work, after a couple of weeks waking at 5am... all I have to do now is resist staying up and getting wired watching the pub run.

The wood yard delivered the logs for the wood burner, the deli has supplied cheese and crackers, and I'm still hoping for a ski with @Mike Poole down Watlington Hill at some point in the next couple of weeks 

 

Saw it very funny!

Also feel free to move this to the twitter thread mods but @MattHugo is very much on the same line of thinking with myself and gets across on this tweet the drum ive been banging on about.

This time of year - Cold pool optimal potential - Colder conditions under modelled in such a scenario quite often.

 

Edited December 22, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[Skullzrulerz]

Out of interest when does the ECM 0z Run at ? 

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Vikos said:

So which is then? 2m temps? Snow at +5°C? Serious?

Yes we offer have snow with positive temps here, weird I know. Other factors such as hight, DP, wet bulb and thickness dictate what will fall. We had freezing rain, through 850s being positive just, and ground temps below zero a couple of years back. Changed to snow later,when 850s dropped a little.

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Out of interest when does the ECM 0z Run at ? 

Trick question? 

[warrenb]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Out of interest when does the ECM 0z Run at ? 

Clue is in the name

[sheikhy]

Icon south and east on 18z!!!

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Out of interest when does the ECM 0z Run at ? 

Starts rolling 6am GMT, last chart at 06:56.

[Kasim Awan]

Potential for a very weak front to produce a few flakes in NW Eng Xmas day.

[Skullzrulerz]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Starts rolling 6am GMT, last chart at 06:56.

Thank you for you're response 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Icon south and east on 18z!!!

Well it would be cause it’s last run was wrong, as shown by the other models.  

[Skullzrulerz]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Icon south and east on 18z!!!

I wonder if it be close to the ECM in terms of position later on?

[Weathizard]

Icon considerably further east than the 12z

[Johnp]

9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Icon considerably further east than the 12z

I like it - VAR for weather models. 

Edited December 22, 2020 by Johnp

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

I like it - VAR for weather models. 

 

Definitely no snow for Liverpool then... 

[northwestsnow]

15 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Potential for a very weak front to produce a few flakes in NW Eng Xmas day.

Right over my house ...

Edited December 22, 2020 by northwestsnow

[NewEra21]

Just from looking at the current charts without looking at 850s etc etc, you'd think we'd be in for a truly memorable cold spell.

But unfortunately as we all know, the cold air just isn't anywhere to be had on our side of the northern hemisphere. It really is such unfortunate timing, everything finally all falling into place that we've all waited so long for. And now there's literally no true cold to tap into.

Obviously nothing is set in stone for next week yet though, so here's hoping for slight improvements and to get this low slightly further to the SE of us and also to lose it's ball shape. As that ball shape of a low is really mixing out any cold in the circulation. 

[Northwest NI]

1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

Just from looking at the current charts without looking at 850s etc etc, you'd think we'd be in for a truly memorable cold spell.

But unfortunately as we all know, the cold air just isn't anywhere to be had on our side of the northern hemisphere. It really is such unfortunate timing, everything finally all falling into place that we've all waited so long for. And now there's literally no true cold to tap into.

Obviously nothing is set in stone for next week yet though, so here's hoping for slight improvements and to get this low slightly further to the SE of us and also to lose it's ball shape. As that ball shape of a low is really mixing out any cold in the circulation. 

You obviously didn’t get the memo.

[Dancerwithwings]

Just remember we had snowfall from this and a very similar output at the start of December so who knows what will become of this 

 

And now

 

 

 

Edited December 22, 2020 by Dancerwithwings

[phil nw.]

ECM spreads at day 10 suggest all the uncertainty is upstream on Atlantic/Greenland ridging.Little doubt that Russian ridging is back on the menu to the east probably holding the troughing around W.Europe/UK.

 

Clearly better ridging upstream will feed deeper cold south - better than what we will see in the diving low after Christmas.

A few will get lucky and see some snow no doubt  but it's touch and go.There will be some modifying off the Atlantic and dew points will be a big factor.

The thing is deep cold doesn't belong here It needs replenishing so let 's hope a more direct feed develops from the Arctic eventually.The setup is not far away from being good but we just lack better heights further north currently.

One good thing is we have time as nothing in the ensembles suggest anything but cold well into January. 

Edited December 22, 2020 by phil nw.