Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[Jason M]

17 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Becoming increasingly frustrating logging in to see ongoing and pages on 850s temps. Surely now after post from @snowking time to move it along.

Why? They are absolutely relevant in this situation regardless of the excellent and relevant post earlier (as are the other 9 or so factors re snow). Anybody on this forum who ignores this is setting themselves up for an almighty fall. Those of us who have been around here for years know full well that the size of the hangover is directly proportionate to the levels of ramping and there is some shameless ramping going on in here tonight. 

Just because a message doesn't attract 'likes' it doesn't mean its wrong. Peeps would be well advised to take into account the views of the naysayers in order to keep themselves grounded. I'm on the fence a bit personally at present (maybe a bit of IMBYism creeping in !) and am watching with interest how things develop. Also an SSW doesn't guarantee anything whatsoever, it merely allows a roll of the dice. Its still perfectly possible to roll a '1' rather than a '6'.

I noted John Holmes posted that the possibility of more significant cold is certainly present and that is certainly worth taking into account as John doesn't ramp, but its not guaranteed.

Edited December 22, 2020 by Jason M

[Vikos]

Please enlight me as foreigner. By "snow" you mean that its just snowing or you mean snow thats sticks? For me, those are two different worlds. Snow for me means sticking snow at least 5 inches, lasting more than a couple of hours in the morning. So that's why i can't catch the exciment a lot of you guys have. I don't see any serious snow sticking or even Narnina in close distance with those lower ground positive Temps. A -4 with this inflow for me is  at least +5 on 2m level.Please correct me if I am wrong and I will shut up permantly. I just wonder over that snow hype!

[Weathizard]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Am I the only one that doesn’t find this run very believable? From 120hrs to present 216hrs that low is drawn to UK like a magnet.
 

Doesn’t have anywhere to go does it? Mega Russian block and a dead jet.

Its not exactly unusual in recent winters to have lows stalled over us with a massive high to our east, just we don’t normally also have the Atlantic ridge as well.

[blizzard81]

All I can say is....... Incredibly exciting times ahead. I think most of us will be happy to be locked in our warm houses on new year's eve if this chart is anywhere near accurate. Looks very cold to me. 

[swfc]

Ec 12z even without deep cold and significant snow is still on the nhp fantastic. Not often you see the PV totally smashed so far north from the Atlantic. Slow burner but nothing zonal or west to east based on that chart going forward. Caveats and fi but great profile 

Edited December 22, 2020 by swfc

[Kasim Awan]

I remember in 2013 when the ECM coughed up these rather bizzare solutions. Possibly a sign the model is having difficulties modelling the background factor conjuncture we face at present..

At the very least the model is getting rid of the Atlantic. Some negative aspects about the run. These if expressed as westerly vectors in the actual outcome may promote low spawning and surprise precipitation events..

A good EC12z and I'm not going to over analyse it. The evolution of a low diving south with renewed amplification seems likely but I think it will be a messy evolution to cold D7-10.

[Neilsouth]

This is what I've learnt from the last couple of weeks viewing the Model Output Discussion..

East, West, East, West again, It's going further south, amazing, 850s temps, incredible, uh oh cold is delayed, it's going east, I'll wait for the 12Z

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

All I can say is....... Incredibly exciting times ahead. I think most of us will be happy to be locked in our warm houses on new year's eve if this chart is anywhere near accurate. Looks very cold to me. 

It is cold, cold rain. #Scrooge

Im looking more past day 7/8 now I think this first low is going to be a washout largely, but the NH is primed for a good winter so not overly upset.

[Penicuikblizzard]

23 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Fantastic ECM, snow for most. 15cm in the midlands for example in a weeks time! That low stalls for 24hrs  (on this run In Central England) somewhere is in for a serious dumping if this happens  ️

Cold rain for the majority apart from central England it’s not exactly widespread as people are making out 

[blizzard81]

You will rarely see better new years day charts than these for the northern hemisphere.... If proper winter is what you are after. Is that shy Siberian high going to make a very rare journey westwards? Look at that 'real' cold it possesses. 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Neilsouth said:

This is what I've learnt from the last couple of weeks viewing the Model Output Discussion..

East, West, East, West again, It's going further south, amazing, 850s temps, incredible, uh oh cold is delayed, it's going east, I'll wait for the 12Z

I agree. Best to keep an understanding of the overall progression. Analysing changes east / west sorts is useful for binary changes i.e. if a low manages to do trough disruption and the domino effect synoptically - not micro details.

[AdrianHull]

2 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

This is what I've learnt from the last couple of weeks viewing the Model Output Discussion..

East, West, East, West again, It's going further south, amazing, 850s temps, incredible, uh oh cold is delayed, it's going east, I'll wait for the 12Z

And cold rain! 

[Matt H]

Obviously this run could’ve been far better but at least there’s no sign of a definitive Atlantic breakthrough with mild, wet and windy weather returning. With a few minor adjustments this day 10 chart could be pretty good, just another option on the table. Not every run is going to show blizzards with endless ice days after all being realistic.

[sheikhy]

Ecm perfect example of what snowking said earlier!!if there ever was an example then the ecm is it!!

[Polaris]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

You will rarely see better new years day charts than these for the northern hemisphere.... If proper winter is what you are after. Is that shy Siberian high going to make a very rare journey westwards? Look at that 'real' cold it possesses. 

Get it to T72 then we bask in the reality 

[Weathizard]

 

Just now, blizzard81 said:

You will rarely see better new years day charts than these for the northern hemisphere.... If proper winter is what you are after. Is that shy Siberian high going to make a very rare journey westwards? Look at that 'real' cold it possesses. 

I think if we’ve learnt anything about the Russian high over the last 10 years, it’s that it does not migrate west. I’m trying to remember the last time it did, any idea?

[Downburst]

Just now, Penicuikblizzard said:

Cold rain for the majority apart from central England it’s not exactly widespread as people are making out 

It’s 6 days away too so won’t happen like that. I personally find this ban on mentioning the 850s ridiculous. It’s what the air temps are, why not ban 2m temps? If this is only for snow rappers and they bully everyone else off, then what? Everyone knows there’s a good chance of snow, we get it.

[Vikos]

2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Not every run is going to show blizzards with endless ice days after all being realistic.

 

Can you show me one of the last days that did?

[Matt H]

Just now, Vikos said:

 

Can you show me one of the last days that did?

Not my point, I’m just saying that some people aren’t happy unless that’s what they’re showing.

[lamppost watcher]

[Mark wheeler]

13 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Please enlight me as foreigner. By "snow" you mean that its just snowing or you mean snow thats sticks? For me, those are two different worlds. Snow for me means sticking snow at least 5 inches, lasting more than a couple of hours in the morning. So that's why i can't catch the exciment a lot of you guys have. I don't see any serious snow sticking or even Narnina in close distance with those lower ground positive Temps. A -4 with this inflow for me is  at least +5 on 2m level.Please correct me if I am wrong and I will shut up permantly. I just wonder over that snow hype!

You have much to learn , We go mental if we see a flake of snow in the light of an outside Lamp .

[chionomaniac]

Anyone else think that the ECM is a confused synoptic mess by day 10 this evening?  I do. It looks like it is getting signals from everywhere and can’t make head or tail of them!

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Jason M said:

Absolutely 100% correct in all respects.

If I were you I'd be very nervous about your little bet though because this could go either way and you could yet see yourself re-enacting a famous game of throne scene. Volunteers to walk behind with a big bell shouting 'shame' just need to PM you 

im not nervous im still in the camp that the slack air and extremeley low heights will produce lieing snow from anything that forecasts -3 and down in uppers but i understand why some dont think so and respect it i just dont think its the right onservation.

Well soon know.

If we have no decent lying snow by the 1st of january ill frost bite my testicles off hahaha

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, lamppost watcher said:

Shall we all just be happy clappy and pretend that the 850’s are cold enough for widespread laying snow?

I think for the majority at the moment the 850’s are not cold enough, nobody is trying to be annoying by saying that it’s just the truth.

It also depends what some people define as snow because I define snow as snowing AND laying, not Snowing and melting.

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

 

I think if we’ve learnt anything about the Russian high over the last 10 years, it’s that it does not migrate west. I’m trying to remember the last time it did, any idea?

Yep, very rare for a proper Siberian high to retrogress westwards over the last 20 plus years. Will make it all the sweeter though when it decides to do it again