Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[Tim Bland]

Fantastic ECM, snow for most. 15cm in the midlands for example in a weeks time! That low stalls for 24hrs  (on this run In Central England) somewhere is in for a serious dumping if this happens  ️

Edited December 22, 2020 by Tim Bland

[Howie]

I guess some still haven't seen the post about 850s yet lol

[Matt H]

Deleted.

Edited December 22, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[Daniel*]

A cold core to low pressure not often you see that.... snowfall potential there. 

[Bullseye]

Just now, Howie said:

I guess some still haven't seen the post about 850s yet lol

Becoming increasingly frustrating logging in to see ongoing and pages on 850s temps. Surely now after post from @snowking time to move it along.

[Mark wheeler]

168 

[Scott Ingham]

Please lets not turn another evening into debates about 850s

Hahaha!

As has been discussed they are less important than you might think when other factors are in play

[Mark wheeler]

Navgem , Pantomime villain 

[tight isobar]

Away from the unfolding bigger picture...(for now). A micro example via ecm of how cold pool pockets pop up... these in current /progressive prog.. can be fully expected to intensify-expand.(deepen). as gains are accomplished... on we run ..

[Skullzrulerz]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Fantastic ECM, snow for most. 15cm in the midlands for example in a weeks time ️

As some users have said take these forecast which a pinch of salt 

These type of forecasts are depending that all that falls out of the sky is snow 

Along other factors which has been said especially temps

[TSNWK]

Here’s a question? Is it possible to have uppers equal to or close surface temperature? With this unusual and slack pattern 

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Fantastic ECM, snow for most. 15cm in the midlands for example in a weeks time ️

The ECM produces a smaller and more complex pressure profile within 200 miles of the minimum pressure, this producing more convergence and therefore shortwave activity. I feel this is much more valid. Esp given as the GFS has a tendency for dartboard simplification.

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Navgem , Pantomime villain 

Ye-ole CHAV gem.. @ ashtray ona motorbike ? model

[Daniel*]

Think issue here is high pressure to our east compared to 00z further west.

 

[sheikhy]

Ecm❄❄

[Howie]

I was hoping the ecm would clear the low, but hopefully it moves towards the GFS. A bit jarring 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

As some users have said take these forecast which a pinch of salt 

These type of forecasts are depending that all that falls out of the sky is snow 

Along other factors which has been said especially temps

Quite right. I find it more prudent to interpret charts as 'snow risk' rather than 'snow depth'. The deeper the purples, the better the chance of 'seeing' snow falling is (for that particular model run).

[syed2878]

31 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Surely it will be the first to call anything given it goes out to 384. As for evidence, UKMO consistently verifies better than GFS.

 interesting model watching for the last few days and blimey today UKmo GFS and ECM are all almost singing from the same hymn sheet it is also encouraging to see the Met office dropped the pressure rising from south west on their extended outlook though they do say it is a low confidence forecast. I just hope the forecasted SSW doesn’t throw a spanner in to the works should the cold whether establish.

[Weathizard]

I’m really trying not to be a moany sod but I just don’t see where our cold air is going to come from without a sustainable block. The low won’t clear south for nye of 3 days and so we end up with a stalled low and cold rain until our next chance. 
 

Think that’s realistically the form horse now although conditions could be favourable for snow in some locations, providing other factors fall into place.

[tight isobar]

African influenced heights rises to the east are are thorn in the side... however the ecm seems still to enjoy ramping amp.. at any given chance /plot.. so atm no MAJOR issues!

Edited December 22, 2020 by tight isobar

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I’m really trying not to be a moany sod but I just don’t see where our cold air is going to come from without a sustainable block. The low won’t clear south for nye of 3 days and so we end up with a stalled low and cold rain until our next chance. 
 

Think that’s realistically the form horse now although conditions could be favourable for snow in some locations, providing other factors fall into place.

I would agree.. in the scheme of things I think for the south at least ecm this evening up 192 is all a bit meh!

Edited December 22, 2020 by TSNWK

[Matt H]

The strong Russian high prevents the low from slipping away to our SE on the ECM 12z so it’s not as good as the 00z run. Hopefully that’ll change tomorrow. Good to see renewed amplification in the Atlantic though.

[Daniel*]

Am I the only one that doesn’t find this run very believable? From 120hrs to present 216hrs that low is drawn to UK like a magnet.
 

[Howie]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Am I the only one that doesn’t find this run very believable? From 120hrs to present 216hrs that low is drawn to UK like a magnet.
 

Yup, I definitely feel like the low would slip more south than that 

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Am I the only one that doesn’t find this run very believable? From 120hrs to present 216hrs that low is drawn to UK like a magnet.
 

The low is cut off from the jet so has nothing to steer it.