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Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

Met4Cast

By Met4Cast
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

If we failed to get a decent snowy spell from this I’d quit weather watching. C38A2064-2977-4ADF-B2FB-CBAAF4C5BBE8.thumb.png.d3c037798f336578fd1877654dfb5caa.png

Now that's the split we want to see!

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
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Posted
5 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

I'm not biting until NOGAPS is on board  

You’d be waiting a long time, it doesn’t exist any more!  

^ Great split in the strat vortex at the end of the 12z GFS.  This is an absolutely fascinating period of model watching, and it is taking up so much time, which is great because there is sod-all else to do, and even less come the inevitable January lockdown.  

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
4 minutes ago, LRD said:

Sure, yeah you're right. It wasn't necessarily a comment on whether that will produce snow or not for us (snowking's superb post should put that to bed). It was more a general observation on what must be a very unusual situation for Europe for the time of year

Oh and you've set off the 1963 KLAXON\!!! 

Oh I know mate yeah. It is very unusual to have these synoptics and not have the -10 850 somewhere near the UK. 

Im finding it fascinating and i cant wait to see what this translates on the ground. Big debate on snow or no snow. Im in the snow camp like snowking and the met but we will see and all learn along the way 

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
6 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

If we failed to get a decent snowy spell from this I’d quit weather watching. C38A2064-2977-4ADF-B2FB-CBAAF4C5BBE8.thumb.png.d3c037798f336578fd1877654dfb5caa.png

This is the UK - famed for finding any route other than to cold, regardless of how promising the synoptics are!

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Guest

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

You’d be waiting a long time, it doesn’t exist any more!  

Strange that, it's verification stats haven't changed much 

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Penicuikblizzard Experienced

Penicuikblizzard

Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
Posted
1 hour ago, topo said:

UKMO is closer to ICON..

I wouldn't trust GFS at this stage..

Why wouldn’t you trust GFS because it’s not showing what you want to see or have you got a scientific reason to back your comment?

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Guest

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Why wouldn’t you trust GFS because it’s not showing what you want to see or have you got a scientific reason to back your comment?

Would take a brave soul to completely distrust the GFS at the moment given it was the first call this cold spell, IIRC?

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

At least it'll be mild!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

I do hope those T850s are warm enough for a barbie!:drunk-emoji:

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

What does this mean? 

Its a proper split very high up in the Atmosphere of the polar vortex, its right at the top of the stratosphere, about 150000ft, it needs to get much further down which we may see on subsequent runs, i would just in the next few runs be happy to see that run repeated, it may also be a lot easier for it to have an impact in the troposphere as well, as the trop seems like its wanting exactly that pattern, just not quite getting right up to Greenland on most runs yet, if that propagates down it may just give the assistance needed.

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Author
Posted
17 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

What does this mean? 

R.I.P Vortex. Hello winter.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
8 minutes ago, iowpompeylee said:

That’s a beauty, i always feel if we have the Ukmo on board we are 75% there! I always feel the other models are stocking fillers! But that’s my opinion! 

i don't like the ukmo run - system is too deep and circular. coldies want it stretched out a bit and col like over the uk. gfs is better imo. i know all about low slp and low heights etc etc but the depth of that system really mixes out the 850's on approach so that we would take some time to redevelop a cold pool

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iowpompeylee Aficionado

iowpompeylee

Posted
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and more snow
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
Posted
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

i don't like the ukmo run - system is too deep and circular. coldies want it stretched out a bit and col like over the uk. gfs is better imo. i know all about low slp and low heights etc etc but the depth of that system really mixes out the 850's on approach so that we would take some time to redevelop a cold pool

Let’s hope the two marry up and bring the right conclusions! 

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

i don't like the ukmo run - system is too deep and circular. coldies want it stretched out a bit and col like over the uk. gfs is better imo. i know all about low slp and low heights etc etc but the depth of that system really mixes out the 850's on approach so that we would take some time to redevelop a cold pool

I'm not sure I'm buying the fact that come the day this low will be quite so deep. It just seems a bit OTT to me. In fairness its not just METO but its been across most of the output. Just get the sense that it might not be such a deep feature come the day and am always a bit wary when charts look a bit clean. Surely this would be a breeding ground for all sorts of secondary systems (AKA the famous 'shortwave). 

Less deep would be good for cold prospects.

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Author
Posted

There is a little support on the GEFS for the high to ridge towards the Griceland area as per the GFS 12z Det run & indeed the past couple of runs, too.

YES.thumb.png.308656a9f8ce0c956b08a2fec7d3bc45.png

Though we were here a few weeks ago too with the GFS progging height rises in this region which never became reality, seems it could be a *thing* in this version of the GFS. Would like to see a lot more support for this trend in the next few runs and indeed on the EPS suites. The GFS does tend to be quite poor at times after all..

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Decemberof2010 Seasoned

Decemberof2010

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
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Posted (edited)

Think we all need to be careful what we wish for. 
But hey ho here goes

Booooooooom

 

04E31FAB-76E8-40F6-BF40-17112ED44255.png
 

75D854D8-822E-4CE0-81CA-F637CB21AF44.png

Edited by Decemberof2010
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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
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Posted (edited)

P12 is just..

-16c uppers in East Anglia/Kent from a northerly!

gens-12-1-300.thumb.png.3882f136f919c02d8cc6ac91bfad2617.png   gens-12-0-312.thumb.png.3c4841a44c5953973ddaa350a422c152.png

'tHE uPPeRs aREn'T cOLd eNOuGh'

Edited by Zak M
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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
6 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

There is a little support on the GEFS for the high to ridge towards the Griceland area as per the GFS 12z Det run & indeed the past couple of runs, too.

YES.thumb.png.308656a9f8ce0c956b08a2fec7d3bc45.png

Though we were here a few weeks ago too with the GFS progging height rises in this region which never became reality, seems it could be a *thing* in this version of the GFS. Would like to see a lot more support for this trend in the next few runs and indeed on the EPS suites. The GFS does tend to be quite poor at times after all..

Good to see. I think this is the next logical move

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted
Just now, Zak M said:

P12 is just..

-16c uppers in East Anglia/Kent from a northerly!

gens-12-1-300.thumb.png.3882f136f919c02d8cc6ac91bfad2617.png   gens-12-0-312.thumb.png.3c4841a44c5953973ddaa350a422c152.png

Despite this, there will still probably be one member that will say' tHE uPPeRs aREn'T cOLd eNOuGh'

Not me. Follow the isobars back to the source on that chart and the difference in uppers becomes easy to explain. A true arctic airmass rather than air sourced from a long way south (even if it has looped around a massive area of low pressure).

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Bartlett High Aficionado

Bartlett High

Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
Posted
5 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

just on twitter Glosea says yes to SSW

Let's just hope it benefits us though!

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