Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[sheikhy]

No such worries on the gfs 12z at 90 hours so far!

[sheikhy]

Hold your horses!!gfs does drop it further south though!!

[Rocheydub]

Slightly better amplification out to 102 hours on the 12z gfs

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I was just gonna say folks,can we at least wait till the GFS UKMO ECM and the ens have run before we start pointing out how poor the ICON is and how far West the pattern is backing. The ICON as about one claim to fame when it postponed that failed ESTLY,then all the other models jumped on board.. But the only reason it was first to it,was the fact it was the first to run..GFS perhaps looking better,but early days.

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Hold your horses!!gfs does drop it further south though!!

It's going West....eek!

[Weathizard]

GFS very similar to its 6z run out to day 5, perhaps slightly further SE on the 12

[Bobd29]

Good to see you Knocker, is Sidney getting ready to hibernate in the woodshed? Models looking very promising, if the projected low can stay sharp then there is more chance cold will prevail rather than mixing out with any warm sector. Promising at presentthough.

[mountain shadow]

GFS looks identical to the 6z in terms of positioning.

[Met4Cast]

Perhaps a slight movement west by 126hrs, but overall remarkable consistency between the 06z/12z. Certainly hasn't joined the ICON thankfully.

[mushymanrob]

37 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I have no idea mate. Its childish and patronizing. Im on exactly the same page as you. I wouldn't be so keen if there wasnt so much evidence to back it up

The trouble is, ive seen many such posters leave this site because of the stupid behaviour, its completely disrespectful and brings the site down.

I usually produce evidence that suspected cold isnt coming, but this year i cannot find anything! All i can see from an unbiased pov is growing evidence for a real winter.

[Skullzrulerz]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Perhaps a slight movement west by 126hrs, but overall remarkable consistency between the 06z/12z. Certainly hasn't joined the ICON thankfully.

Don't the models usually shift east as closer to the time? Though the ICON could very well have started a new trend in it's own right

[Mike Poole]

UKMO looks further east than ICON and decent chart at T144:

@snowking great post earlier - really well explained.

Edited December 22, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Matt H]

UKMO 12z virtually the same as the 00z out to t144 as well.

[Met4Cast]

Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

Don't the models usually shift east as closer to the time? Though the ICON could very well have started a new trend in it's own right

Yeah.. seeing the ICON shift so far west is a slight concern, we'll see where the GEFS sit with it & ofc the ECM. The UKMO is decent at T144, no huge westerly shift there either.

[sheikhy]

Gfs same as 06z just further south and ukmo is further east!!beautiful❄

[topo]

UKMO is closer to ICON..

I wouldn't trust GFS at this stage..

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO looks further east than ICON and decent chart at T144:

@snowking great post earlier - really well explained.

Yeh, and GFS more like the UKMO than the ICON. Can't see ICON being right here.

[LRD]

You can only laugh really can't you? Warm uppers coming in from the low countries. There's no disputing that'd be too warm!

[ianmm94]

Just now, topo said:

UKMO is closer to ICON..

I wouldn't trust GFS at this stage..

why not? the GFS was the first one to call the pattern change

[booferking]

Just now, topo said:

UKMO is closer to ICON..

I wouldn't trust GFS at this stage..

Are you serious when you say that?

[tight isobar]

Just now, topo said:

UKMO is closer to ICON..

I wouldn't trust GFS at this stage..

I would .. when it’s signal is relentless.. @as now.. it’s the form model.. imo.. keep watching

[Matt H]

1 minute ago, topo said:

UKMO is closer to ICON..

I wouldn't trust GFS at this stage..

Should’ve gone to specsavers...

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

The trouble is, ive seen many such posters leave this site because of the stupid behaviour, its completely disrespectful and brings the site down.

I usually produce evidence that suspected cold isnt coming, but this year i cannot find anything! All i can see from an unbiased pov is growing evidence for a real winter.

Exactly. Its an adult site and leaving laughing emojis exactly is school boy stuff.

I dont come out like you with fairyland predictions.

The evidence is stacked for a real winter. Not a flash in the pan and i know you and john holmes are commended for your unbiased point of views. 

Im trying not to let it leave this site but i have a lot going on at home including a very sick mother with covid and the last i need is this. 

This is my escape

[Battleground Snow]

Hopefully the icon has gone off on one, sometimes it seems a decent model, but looks wrong in the semi reliable compared to ukmo and GFS at 144.

Approaching the key 192-240 timeframe now @Scott Ingham , fingers crossed griceland

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, topo said:

UKMO is closer to ICON..

I wouldn't trust GFS at this stage..

Your first statement is just not true. At t+144 the Icon is some 250 miles or so further West then UKMO.