Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[Vikos]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

You have much to learn , We go mental if we see a flake of snow in the light of an outside Lamp .

I live in the warmest corner of Germany, I know snow-frustration very good as I am an ultimative snow and winter fan. But last years teached me to be realistic, and a sloppy uper with -4 is never gonna be a snow bringer in therms of my understanding of snow (sticking).

[Optimus Prime]

10 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Cold rain for the majority apart from central England it’s not exactly widespread as people are making out 

On closer inspection we have this;

That looks very cold to me. Not far off early January 2010.

Looks like some special weather is on the way. Makes a change. 

[Jason M]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

im not nervous im still in the camp that the slack air and extremeley low heights will produce lieing snow from anything that forecasts -3 and down in uppers but i understand why some dont think so and respect it i just dont think its the right onservation.

Well soon know.

If we have no decent lying snow by the 1st of january ill frost bite my testicles off hahaha

You might just get away with it in Rotherham as I suspect not the worst place to be for this episode.

[swfc]

Just as a point I think concentrating on the synoptics and nhp maybe wise going forward. Change a plenty but getting wrapped up on specific details or dates for any sleet/snow will probably cause more stress and angst than joy. The big picture is looking pretty good and going into January that can't be bad

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Optimus Prime said:

On closer inspection we have this;

That looks very cold to me. Not far off early January 2010.

Looks like some special weather is on the way. Makes a change. 

Really!!!!  -   Dew points above freezing from Manchester Southwards.

[Howie]

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Anyone else think that the ECM is a confused synoptic mess by day 10 this evening?  I do. It looks like it is getting signals from everywhere and can’t make head or tail of them!

Yup I thought the exact same thing. GFS seems to be doing a good job at making sense of the signals

[Vikos]

2 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

On closer inspection we have this;

That looks very cold to me. Not far off early January 2010.

Looks like some special weather is on the way. Makes a change. 

Thats not even cold rain, thats just rain

[NewEra21]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Shall we all just be happy clappy and pretend that the 850’s are cold enough for widespread laying snow?

I think for the majority at the moment the 850’s are not cold enough, nobody is trying to be annoying by saying that it’s just the truth.

It also depends what some people define as snow because I define snow as snowing AND laying, not Snowing and melting.

100% agree. People seem to be burying their heads in the sand on this issue, yes we can get snow with these 850s. But even if we do, it's going to be one big wet mess. 850s a degree or so colder and game on!

[Polaris]

34 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Fantastic ECM, snow for most. 15cm in the midlands for example in a weeks time! That low stalls for 24hrs  (on this run In Central England) somewhere is in for a serious dumping if this happens  ️

Get these ECM ppn charts to T24 then I’ll sit up. 
Countless times those gave me burial only to have cold rain. 
 

I’ll take a punt and say those areas get cold rain/sleet at best come 29th - hope I’m proved wrong. 
 
5 days ago I was set for Snow Christmas Day. Enough said 

[Valleyboy]

24 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Am I the only one that doesn’t find this run very believable? From 120hrs to present 216hrs that low is drawn to UK like a magnet.
 

It will move through and should give some fun & games.  

[Jason M]

Just now, Polaris said:

Get these ECM ppn charts to T24 then I’ll sit up. 
Countless times those gave me burial only to have cold rain. 
 

I’ll take a punt and say those areas get cold rain/sleet at best come 29th - hope I’m proved wrong. 
 
5 days ago I was set for Snow Christmas Day. Enough said 

Quite a bit of the area under that snow band has some elevation which might well be the difference.

[kold weather]

Very good ECM, again the set-up *is* marginal ,we shouldn't pretend it isn't. However the ECM run is cold enough for a solid snow event and I suspect the GFS 12z would be as well.

Beyond that the risk is clearly there for a west based -ve NAO on the 12z ECM, though the upper set-up is good enough for the time being to keep the cold coming and stagnating nearby our shores which as it gets more entrenched means any diving LP's into our shores will have an ever greater chance of being snow filled events.

So plenty to watch out for everyone!

 

 

 

 

[Methuselah]

17 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

This is what I've learnt from the last couple of weeks viewing the Model Output Discussion..

East, West, East, West again, It's going further south, amazing, 850s temps, incredible, uh oh cold is delayed, it's going east, I'll wait for the 12Z

It's getting to be like The Golden Shot: north a bit, south a bit, west a bit, east a bit... Missed!!

[Bartlett High]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

It's getting to be like The Golden Shot: north a bit, south a bit, west a bit, east a bit... Missed!!

Before my time

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Again a lot of talk about those uppers which are bringing many to a downer.. Some nice 12z ensembles again...one brings the -16c uppers in...I reckon that scrapes past marginal. If that comes off,I'm ready for the Robot...

Only just noticed that chart already been posted twice..im about as quick as the Daily Mail.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 22, 2020 by MATTWOLVES

[lamppost watcher]

7 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Shall we all just be happy clappy and pretend that the 850’s are cold enough for widespread laying snow?

I think for the majority at the moment the 850’s are not cold enough, nobody is trying to be annoying by saying that it’s just the truth.

It also depends what some people define as snow because I define snow as snowing AND laying, not Snowing and melting.

My point is that we get it! The 850s might not be great but that's not the only factor. I haven't seen anyone posting that there will be widespread snow like 2010

[kold weather]

9 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Get these ECM ppn charts to T24 then I’ll sit up. 
Countless times those gave me burial only to have cold rain. 
 

I’ll take a punt and say those areas get cold rain/sleet at best come 29th - hope I’m proved wrong. 
 
5 days ago I was set for Snow Christmas Day. Enough said 

Its basically a re-run of a few weeks ago, except about 1c colder on most metrics at the surface, with a colder upper flow and cooler SSTs.

I'm still fairly confident that snowfall will be around during that period, though as you suggests, its real marginal and so the more active a front the better, also the better the fetch from the south/SE the better as well.

The big point is, will it reach that 24hrs mark!

Edited December 22, 2020 by kold weather

[booferking]

15 minutes ago, Vikos said:

I live in the warmest corner of Germany, I know snow-frustration very good as I am an ultimative snow and winter fan. But last years teached me to be realistic, and a sloppy uper with -4 is never gonna be a snow bringer in therms of my understanding of snow (sticking).

If your talking about Germany and that particular run from ecm your right to be frustrated as your not even in -4 category your bathing in +2 to +4 for the majority of it, while uk sits in the coldest uppers the whole run so understand your frustration nightmare run for @jules216 also.

Edited December 22, 2020 by booferking

[fromey]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Really!!!!  -   Dew points above freezing from Manchester Southwards.

That’s 2mtr temps

[Scott Ingham]

7 minutes ago, Jason M said:

You might just get away with it in Rotherham as I suspect not the worst place to be for this episode.

I thino thats half the issue.

If your up North its a very decent spell of weather but down south i agree atm maybe wrong side of marginal.

I do though think the blocking is not going away and the 3rd bite of the cherry after Christmas and the week leading up to new year that the south will come into play and this will be an even colder shot.

For me its a rinse and repeat winter with narnia landing after the very encouraging signs of a ssw

[Vikos]

3 minutes ago, lamppost watcher said:

My point is that we get it! The 850s might not be great but that's not the only factor. I haven't seen anyone posting that there will be widespread snow like 2010

So which is then? 2m temps? Snow at +5°C? Serious?

[Frosty.]

Well there’s plenty of white stuff in the GEFS 12...well it’s actually purple but that’s a minor detail!

 

[markw2680]

To many folk are panicking about will it be cold enough etc etc, the charts we are seeing for in a few days time are so rare we need to just enjoy what’s about to happen, there will be many surprises to come I’d think, let’s just get the cold low pressure in and relax and see what falls from the sky. Put it this way I think many on here will be keeping them curtains open a touch just to catch a glimpse of the local lamppost 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, fromey said:

That’s 2mtr temps

Its not, its 2m Dew points.

[IDO]

12 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Anyone else think that the ECM is a confused synoptic mess by day 10 this evening?  I do. It looks like it is getting signals from everywhere and can’t make head or tail of them!

Ecm at d10 + heights are a known bug within the algorithms. On this run it has gone height-tastic, especially in the Pacific region:

Not impossible but I have been looking for this signal on the gefs for some runs now, in the hope of an MJO signal, but still no sign; maybe one at gefs d10 on the 12z but not a ramp as the ecm.

I suspect ecm is having another d10 special!