Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Just remember we had snowfall from this and a very similar output at the start of December so who knows what will become of this 

 

And now

 

 

 

Not all of us! agree though very similar setup and 850's

[Snowman.]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

That Russian high can be positive in relation to the vortex, but we need it  to sod off in the next week or two.

Really don't see it going anywhere anytime soon. Models always seem to underestimate it out in FI so no surprises that today its the new topic to be talking about. 

Griceland high is probably best outcome here. 

 

[Dancerwithwings]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Not all of us! agree though very similar setup and 850's

Maybe nothing will be come of this but I do remember it was on and off for snowfall even the day before....then it happened, I do remember a few posts stating if only it were a few weeks a head it would be better 

[phil nw.]

Sorry guys but a few posts with no model discussion have gone.Please take your general chat to the other thread so we can keep this on topic.

Ta very much.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Maybe nothing will be come of this but I do remember it was on and off for snowfall even the day before....then it happened, I do remember a few posts stating if only it were a few weeks a head it would be better 

My location not done well out of these 2 events, 14th Jan 2013 another similar setup, here it turned less cold, thawing existing snow, after snow was forecast!

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

My location not done well out of these 2 events, 14th Jan 2013 another similar setup, here it turned less cold, thawing existing snow, after snow was forecast!

Brilliant even in leicester!!!all snow!!!!got around 10cms by the end of it!!!and then am sure the big snowstorm came a few days later for a lot of england and wales!!shall never forget those events!!!

[Griff]

Am I alone in thinking one of these runs will miraculous become a scandi, Iceland, Greenland link up?  Probably should have said hoping. 

In any case the low is further south, than the latest icon. 

 

[Weathizard]

Icelandic wedge?  Hmmmm

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Am I alone in thinking one of these runs will miraculous become a scandi, Iceland, Greenland link up?  Probably should have said hoping. 

In any case the low is further south, than the latest icon. 

 

Nope I’m with you griff.. Been watching this play out.. ebbs and flow

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Weathizard said:

Icelandic wedge?  Hmmmm

Need the russian high to get lost, it's edging west more on this GFS run compared to the last, need to reverse this trend for better cold prospects in the medium term. 

[Matt H]

Putting aside the debate about the uppers for one second, the GFS 18z is fairly consistent to the 12z earlier by sinking the trough and bringing in a NE’ly wind. Much better than the ECM once again.

[Weathizard]

Pocket of -16’s just waiting to be tapped into, colder uppers appearing now at day 7 or so range.

[markw2680]

This is more like it

[Skullzrulerz]

2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Putting aside the debate about the uppers for one second, the GFS 18z is fairly consistent to the 12z earlier by sinking the trough and bringing in a NE’ly wind. Much better than the ECM once again.

That's what I call a cold spell! Hopefully the second course

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Pocket of -16’s just waiting to be tapped into, colder uppers appearing now at day 7 or so range.

 

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

This is more like it

Yes tantalisingly close

[Scott Ingham]

29th now looking at a launch date for much better uppers.

Thats 2 runs in a row and another that brings winds from the North East

[Weathizard]

850 comparison, look at the improvement, colder air flooding into our NE

[SMU]

24 hours down the line.

Wedge is the word of the day

[Battleground Snow]

A question for anyone who would like to answer? Do the models underplay cold developing in situ?

Scandi area on this run seems to have just got colder for no reason, can the same happen over the UK? 

 

[Mike Poole]

GFS pub run T180:

Cold on the way here, and I think it is significant on this run that bowling ball low at T144:

has finally relaxed and become more elongated. 

[booferking]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

24 hours down the line.

Wedge is the word of the day

You think gfs still leading the way what the hell has happened to the ec recently?

[Allseasons-Si]

We have a clash of air masses to our north at 192,that would of been better further south but a good run all the same.

[Kasim Awan]

The GFS 18Z sides with the GEM 12z. The dive SE and slight amplification towards Greenland D7+ is very reasonable. On the surface this yielde a temporary Easterly, before another go at a Northerly shot. 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

A question for anyone who would like to answer? Do the models underplay cold developing in situ?

Scandi area on this run seems to have just got colder for no reason, can the same happen over the UK? 

 

It will do if it's colder further down the line, say scandi, chances are it will feed here if the flow isn't disrupted... 

[weirpig]

Very cold   new years eve  slack winds   

Much better