Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[Eskimo]

Whilst the uppers aren't bitterly cold (sorry!), surface temperatures will struggle to get much above freezing, especially across eastern areas under that slack flow after day 7. 

[chionomaniac]

58 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I don’t think they necessarily show a displacement- gfs doesn’t go far enough to split on its 00z run. it would probably split by day 18.  However, the gfs op is no longer consistent on the upcoming warming.  Until we get consistency back then guessing where any vortices end up is a bit pointless 

This 

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 06z is a cracker!  And at just T150:

 

Absolutely - we don't want any major easterly adjustments though !!

[BarometerCat]

Some wintry interest at +114  (Monday)  will be more firmed up nearer the time with the wheres and what heights  and if at alls etc..  Radar and lamposts by then with usual Caveats.. Absolutely no promises at this stage. (Might just rain a bit)

Up until then some inevitable festive rain today, particularly over the Midlands then a frosty start to the Christmas period on Christmas eve.

Boxing day, unsettled and not as cold briefly. (boring)

Still happy with the output, loads better than a lot of recent years and at least something to keep interest up!

Edited December 23, 2020 by B-C

[Kasim Awan]

The low breakaway of energy from Greenland is looking increasingly possible now.

This is a slow mover, moving into low heights & v low surface dew points. As @snowking explained yesterday, T850s under low heights & slack conditions can produce a better temp profile than T850s 5/6C lower in a flow with strong winds & >1000mb.

Big recipie for surprise snows with this output.

[tight isobar]

Always going to have minor energy issues mid Atlantic.. Greenland point.. but all in all cracking....    have you got the minerals???!.  Keep watching!!

[Man With Beard]

Snow or not, the synoptics are fascinating. On the latest GFS, 961mb just off the east coast by Sunday, and very slack in the middle of the low

24 hours later, it's almost turned into a channel low

 

 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

The low breakaway of energy from Greenland is looking increasingly possible now.

This is a slow mover, moving into low heights & v low surface dew points. As @snowking explained yesterday, T850s under low heights & slack conditions can produce a better temp profile than T850s 5/6C lower in a flow with strong winds & >1000mb.

Big recipie for surprise snows with this output.

The 06z shows how an annoying warm sector could make a good looking chart winter impotent !  Another run with building greeny ridge 

[Matt H]

GFS 06z is a stonker, utterly beautiful!

Edited December 23, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[Battleground Snow]

Looks like another stab at griceland here, fantastic model watching to appease the lockdown bordem 

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The 06z shows how an annoying warm sector could make a good looking chart winter impotent !  Another run with building greeny ridge 

It is. The evolution 160-220 is looking like a repeat of the one we have at 120-150h. The level of mixing is still to be resolved in the output. It is likely to be lower than the first go.

[kold weather]

Greenland high forms on the 06z again but this time looks just a little too far west for comfort, which runs the risk of the LP getting stuck over the UK and the good stuff never quite really making it for the south of the country. It does show the risk of the west based -ve NAO though again.

However the basic background synoptics are great and no point getting too overly hung up on the exact placements yet!

Edited December 23, 2020 by kold weather

[BarometerCat]

GFS 6z out to 210, where I tend to leave it,  is not showing any mild!  That's the headline for me.  Looks like another cold run. Much better overall trend this year.  

Edited December 23, 2020 by B-C

[sheikhy]

Fantastic 06z!!!dont worry bout that low at 216 hours by then surface cold will be entranched so i reckon what falls out of the sky will be snow!!!

[kold weather]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Fantastic 06z!!!dont worry bout that low at 216 hours by then surface cold will be entranched so i reckon what falls out of the sky will be snow!!!

Yeah its increasingly cold, and even if the Greenland high does set-up that far west it is still definately going to bring cold down.

Looks like we might just about get away with it on the 06z OP, but thats the utter limit to how far west we wan everything to set-up.

[loafer]

18 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Obviously attention is focused further out, but there still could be a few little bonus surprises at selected spots in the east on xmas morning:

 

I agree. Keeping a close eye on this one. Here is the Euro4;

 

 

[TSNWK]

My thoughts if I may.. that this 06z is actually a slight upgrade from the 00z up to about 190.. it then starts a slightly different route where we have slightly more flabby low filling over us brining in less cold uppers to around 240 although we have gone back to a cut over Greenland high option...

Absolutly top draw model watching at present.

[tight isobar]

Synpoticaly stunning @6z gfs...    the uppers @850s are pointless viewing by now we are entrenched!!

[mountain shadow]

Nothing much has changed in the past couple of weeks.

Synoptically,  the hemispheric pattern is great but unless you live up a hill in Scotland,  there is very little chance of snow in the next ten days.

That is the reality.

Edited December 23, 2020 by mountain shadow

[MAF]

i often find it odd how FI can be trashed one day and praised the next. Surely 3 -5 days ahead is the most any model can be accurate about and even then there are doubts when it comes to how much or what type of precipitation may fall. As ever I shall believe it's a decent winter when it arrives on my doorstep  

[Man With Beard]

Impressive midday temperatures for next Monday

Not without support - this was UKMO 00Z for the same time - below 2C quite widely

 

 

 

Edited December 23, 2020 by Man With Beard

[bluearmy]

Gonna  be squeaky bum time on this run very soon .........

[Mapantz]

Although it  is a bit far out for a high resolution model, it does show the possibilities of disturbances around a parent LP.

That would produce snow for South Wales and higher ground in the Southwest.

They'll be so many small things to watch out for in the coming days!

[Winterdarkness]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Nothing much has changed in the past couple of weeks.

Synoptically,  the hemispheric pattern is great but unless you live up a hill in Scotland,  there is very little chance of snow in the next ten days.

That is the reality.

From January is when we will see significant snowfall get your sledge out!!!!

[chionomaniac]