Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

MOGREPS I believe.. 

Re: BBC graphics, I wouldn't get too excited. BBC/Meteogroup use raw data at the extended forecast range which is why the BBC chart matches so perfectly with the EC det. In my opinion they've gone downhill since dropping the Met Office. 

Next week is looking interesting though.. because it's so marginal it wouldn't take much of a change to see a rain or snow event.

I don't disagree... I'd rather see snow symbols than the rain variety though !!

Fwiw, temps are being pegged back on the apps now...up here its down to 2s in the day and sub zero at night...

[Mapantz]

Met Office apps/automated forecast use the UKV model.

[Winterdarkness]

12 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Personally, I'd like to see an exact copy of 1978-79's synoptics (utterly impossible I know!): I've always been fascinated by 'then and now' comparisons... But, just how similar would things have to be, for such a comparison to be meaningful?

But, be that as it may, the latest GEFS mean NHPs hold plenty of interest:

    

    

Wow we could be in luck!! 

[northwestsnow]

53 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Where is the split??

EPS are a stonker though.

The eps are trending colder and colder ...

Are we developing our own cold pool?

 

[bluearmy]

49 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Where is the split??

EPS are a stonker though.

You miss understand - it was misleading the forum by stating that any ssw would, be a displacement rather than a split. 
 

any reversal I’ve seen modelled thus far on this upcoming two weeks leads to a split.  It may end up incorrect but at the moment there is no ‘typical’ displacement SSW forecast.  all the forecast are stretching the vortex out rather than pushing it to an area of the NH well away from the pole.  (As per displacement)

[Met4Cast]

9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Met Office apps/automated forecast use the UKV model.

UKV doesn't go out to day 7.. 

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

My only concern is for us in the SE corner and other Southern/Eastern areas that the M4 line will work its magic it looks like mainly rain for us on those graphics unless it transitions as it clears although the ECM charts people have been posting show accumulations even around London and surrounding areas

Already seems highly likely we are looking at an M4 northwards snow event next week with quite a large north/south split. Parts of Scotland could easily below freezing for a week or more and while further south it’ll be cold for a few days there’s already increasing signs in the ensembles that much milder conditions could punch through before new year. Down here it’ll be hard to beat the 2c max we had on the 7th of December, at the time I said it’s more than likely we would have already seen the coldest day of winter, something that’s still a good bet IMO. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

UKV doesn't go out to day 7.. 

This is why I'm a bit confused ...

[Mapantz]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

UKV doesn't go out to day 7.. 

For us it does.

I emailed the Met Office a couple of years back about it, and they confirmed it was the UKV.

[Met4Cast]

Just now, Mapantz said:

For us it does.

I emailed the Met Office a couple of years back about it, and they confirmed it was the UKV.

Weird, the Met Office own website says then UKV only runs to 120hrs.

Numerical weather prediction models

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

The Unified Model is run operationally in a number of configurations for weather forecasting at the Met Office.

 

[Frosty.]

Wow I honestly can’t keep up, this place is mental..the speed of posting on here..Wow..Wow!!!..anyway, enough waffle already...you want snaw don’t you!..hmm, hmm..well the GEFS 6z has plenty of it..and a particularly cold early January to!

I apologise but the charts are in a completely illogical order..Mr Spock is very unhappy about that!!!!!!

 

[Mapantz]

Don't shoot the messenger! I'm just repeating what they told me in an email.. 

Let's not get bogged down what those automated forecasts show anyway, it's futile at this range.

[Mr Frost]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

For us it does.

I emailed the Met Office a couple of years back about it, and they confirmed it was the UKV.

 

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Weird, the Met Office own website says then UKV only runs to 120hrs.

Numerical weather prediction models

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

The Unified Model is run operationally in a number of configurations for weather forecasting at the Met Office.

 

Interesting regarding beyond 120h.

It certainly shows on the map section of the Met Office APP for the 24/36 hours range.

Currently on the Met Office APP for 24/12: 03:00

 

UKV currently for 24/12: 03:00

 

Those charts match up perfectly - Wintry Christmas Eve morning for NW/N/NE Scotland! 

Hopefully the rest of us throughout the UK and Ireland will join in over the next week or two! 

[Catacol]

32 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Many positives continuing with the models such as .. 

Yes - this is the potentially very big EAMT that after New Year May spell doom for the vortex and give our pattern the jolt it needs to force the block up higher with the jet running underneath. I always reckon winter starts on Dec 15 these days - so 8 days in we are talking about some seriously blocked conditions on the rise...l

[Thunder Snow]

Ive given up trying to keep up with this thread  great posts by all

[feb1991blizzard]

32 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Met Office apps/automated forecast use the UKV model.

It doesn't go out far enough to cover their 15 day forecasts.

[topo]

I like what I see from GFS control extended! 

[damianslaw]

Will be looking at models in more detail later, based on cursory glances now, next week promises to be a very messy set up, similar to early December but colder and therefore chances of precipitation being of the snow variety will be higher.

In the short term, upgrade in the cold through Christmas Eve and lasting longer into Christmas Day for many, likely to be coldest Christmas eve and day since 2010, but that's because the last 9 have been so mild.

The trends are fascinating at present, cold blocks holding off the Atlantic and most likely to win, not been able to say that at this stage in winter since 2009.

[Allseasons-Si]

Surprised no one posted the EPS clusters,only one cluster though

day ten and EXT...

gefs ens still flat lining around the -5 and the gfs was an outlier towards the end,well to some degree

and look at this for a pressure drop

 

Edited December 23, 2020 by Allseasons-si
added more info

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Surprised no one posted the EPS clusters,only one cluster though

day ten and EXT...

 

single cluster when there is a huge spread  showing to our west away from the mid Atlantic ridge? Tbh, I’m a bit surprised the algorithm couldn’t find clusters given that low spread to our east 

[goosey007]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Goodness that graphic looks brilliant for the Midlands,and Shaky !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!

EC chart says 38cm !!!!!

Incredible !!!!!

Hi NWS

I wonder how many corrections west or east we will see on the models in the comming days? Perhaps some of the more experienced members can explain what is more likely looking at the current set up....could be squeaky bum time come boxing day to where this low will track .....

Cheers all

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Hi NWS

I wonder how many corrections west or east we will see on the models in the comming days? Perhaps some of the more experienced members can explain what is more likely looking at the current set up....could be squeaky bum time come boxing day to where this low will track .....

Cheers all

Hi...

In truth this will need watching closely...

The fact the beeb are highlighting the Midlands in particular suggests its the sweet spot 

It ties in with EC too...

Looking good,mores with a bit of altitude...

Edited December 23, 2020 by northwestsnow

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Hi NWS

I wonder how many corrections west or east we will see on the models in the comming days? Perhaps some of the more experienced members can explain what is more likely looking at the current set up....could be squeaky bum time come boxing day to where this low will track .....

Cheers all

The snow track from a few weeks ago turned out to be a blend of both gfs and ec. I’d say gfs was closer (which isn’t what we would expect).  Of course with this particular little disturbance being around day six it may not even exist come the time ! 

[northwestsnow]

25 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

single cluster when there is a huge spread  showing to our west away from the mid Atlantic ridge? Tbh, I’m a bit surprised the algorithm couldn’t find clusters given that low spread to our east 

Just gobsmacked...

Contrast to last Winter ,the complete opposite..

[bluearmy]

Just checked the eps control from the 06z and it takes the system south through Wales and Somerset/Devon.  The 00z run wasn’t too far away from the op