Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

Met4Cast

By Met4Cast
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

12z GFS similar to 06z even in far FI. We could see a snow~Rain~snow event from the low in the south. It pushes up across the Uk and is then chased south again by the next pulse of cold air. This is as far as the milder air gets and then it’s pushing south again...

F5B42E3E-AB31-4474-873A-9D91DB3BC801.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted (edited)

The real cold air not far off Northern Scotland now with Minus 20 upper  not far off the Northern Isles. 

Wow if that came off they would get absolutely buried with lake effect snow up there. 

Edited by SLEETY
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Cold run overall, with a sustained below average spell coming up still.

The HP again just sets itself up a little too far NW, though its closer than the 06z run.

Would be a huge flood risk in the south if such a pattern were to establish, though its not really all that far removed from a big snow event, a slightly flatter initial low at 264hrs would bring home the goods.

Its a great pattern bu one that is high risk - high reward. The failure for not making the cut is perhaps very wet weather and flooding.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

12z GFS similar to 06z even in far FI. We could see a snow~Rain~snow event from the low in the south. It pushes up across the Uk and is then chased south again by the next pulse of cold air. This is as far as the milder air gets and then it’s pushing south again...

F5B42E3E-AB31-4474-873A-9D91DB3BC801.png

IF which is a massive IF the weather followed the gfs some places would see large snowfalls. However details at any range passed t120 are JFF. We don’t know where the high will reside yet. The output is great, let’s see what develops.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted (edited)

I think there are enough features in the flow to keep us entertained !  High pressure mr Met office?! Really ?!? 

792E1D21-E9DF-4180-A4C8-DCEE9CEC784F.png

50C2BD3D-64DB-4E52-B375-5B05DD8F835B.jpeg

Edited by Tim Bland
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tom Jarvis Community Regular

Tom Jarvis

Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
Posted

Not too worried about FI atm. Actually prefer it being a bit west as almost always gets pushed south and east as we get closer to the event. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted

Very good GEFS 12z mean out to t192 as well.

C51BA6FF-B943-4578-B280-F1BE378DC6B7.png

72ED2F01-D3ED-4BF9-A3BD-FA728441B3B2.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, topo said:

Whole Europe warmer than normal. Really struggling to see any proper cold. 

GFSOPEU12_348_34.png

Try to focus on T144-210 for trends. And the trend is amazing.. Plus T850s become less important once surface inversions develop, it is possible to have high 850s and v cold surface temps.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Cold run overall, with a sustained below average spell coming up still.

The HP again just sets itself up a little too far NW, though its closer than the 06z run.

Would be a huge flood risk in the south if such a pattern were to establish, though its not really all that far removed from a big snow event, a slightly flatter initial low at 264hrs would bring home the goods.

Its a great pattern bu one that is high risk - high reward. The failure for not making the cut is perhaps very wet weather and flooding.

A snow line sitting somewhere across the Midlands is very seventies/eighties aswell .........

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, topo said:

Whole Europe warmer than normal. Really struggling to see any proper cold. 

GFSOPEU12_348_34.png

That’s the 00z . This is the 12z for over here on that date . But you knew that didn’t you ? 

D7840297-2C9E-4524-9270-78ED56189EB7.png

Edited by ICE COLD
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Howie said:

That high pressure really needs to be more east. Shows how finely balanced this is

Yes its shocking isn't it

image.thumb.png.2a1bedd48fb046f861c0f950d2b034d1.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gowon Veteran

Gowon

Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Posted
8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Boom.

What are you booming at?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted
28 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Not far off a southern blizzard here...

F861409A-FBDC-4379-969E-8F7FB8FD2DCD.png

Ooof, that would be some decent tier 4 entertainment right there!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Blessed Weather Maestro

Blessed Weather

Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
Posted
8 minutes ago, topo said:

Whole Europe warmer than normal. Really struggling to see any proper cold. 

GFSOPEU12_348_34.png

Could I ask for a bit more explanation about that chart please. That is not the GFS forecast of 850hPa temps for 7th of Jan. Doesn't German "mittel" translate to medium?

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Beanz Rising Star

Beanz

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
Posted
7 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

think metO could be embarrassed.

I don't suppose they're too worried about one run of the GFS at 354hrs to be honest... 

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted
25 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Just a friendly reminder folks .Please just discuss the current models in here.

If you wish to exchange views on the met outlook go here

Any general chat here

...and finally we have a learning area for newer chart viewers

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/learning/

We are now very busy so it would help greatly with the flow of the thread if everyone could post in the correct threads as much as possible.

Many thanks.

Just as a heads up, plan to unleash a new and Christmas themed Model Output thread later tonight just for a bit of a refresh (probably around midnight when it should be quieter) ??
 

3937D32C-9D99-462E-8029-40E1AD02AD1C.thumb.jpeg.446f67438159a9d1d6421736823309a5.jpeg

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted

All excitement must be contained until NAVGEM is on board. We know it has a massive habit of proving all the main models wrong. Hugely underrated, always been my favourite.

F17C5F3E-5A3B-4641-A765-68D699279F10.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
7 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Could I ask for a bit more explanation about that chart please. That is not the GFS forecast of 850hPa temps for 7th of Jan. Doesn't German "mittel" translate to medium?

It is an anomaly chart. 30 ja mittel = 30 year average. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Sky Full Accomplished

Sky Full

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
Posted
32 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Not far off a southern blizzard here...

F861409A-FBDC-4379-969E-8F7FB8FD2DCD.png

That is an amazing chart.....almost too good to be true, in fact.  I can’t remember anything like that actually happening in recent years.  If the CFS was showing such a set-up it would be the butt of many jokes.  Must keep in mind that it’s 12 days off and almost certain not to happen but the fact that it’s a possible solution to the current conditions is cause for celebration itself.  

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...