Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[Winterdarkness]

4 minutes ago, XtremeUKWeather said:

First in ICON12Z

 

 

 

Wow wow wow beast from east??

[Skullzrulerz]

Just now, Winterdarkness said:

Wow wow wow beast from east??

It looks more of a northerly part more then everything 

Also that low doesn't seem as deep and east as well to yesterday icons 

[XtremeUKWeather]

1 minute ago, Winterdarkness said:

Wow wow wow beast from east??

Not there just yet 

[Tim Bland]

Icon would produce similar totals as ECM. Somewhere would get a gig dumping under that trough as it stalls ! Somewhere between Bristol and Oxford / MK would be the sweetspot on this run 

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Icon would produce similar totals as ECM. Somewhere would get a gig dumping under that trough as it stalls ! Somewhere between Bristol and Oxford / MK would be the sweetspot on this run 

 

18+ material there.

Edited December 23, 2020 by Snowman.

[username home]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Icon would produce similar totals as ECM. Somewhere would get a gig dumping under that trough as it stalls ! Somewhere between Bristol and Oxford / MK would be the sweetspot on this run 

they can't be right - m4 area is getting snow....

[Howie]

Gfs has the low a lot less rounded as it dives

[Skullzrulerz]

Just now, username home said:

they can't be right - m4 area is getting snow....

It's moved to the southwest to Cornwall as you can it's built a huge wall across the Tamar bridge

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Icon would produce similar totals as ECM. Somewhere would get a gig dumping under that trough as it stalls ! Somewhere between Bristol and Oxford / MK would be the sweetspot on this run 

Those totals shown on the ecm are ridiculously overdone. Software in the website is used to extrapolate the accumulations. Not raw data from the ECMWF. This uses a poor algorithm.

[Winterdarkness]

4 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

It's moved to the southwest to Cornwall as you can it's built a huge wall across the Tamar bridge

So southwest could be getting snow from it? 

[bluearmy]

44 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

 

Pretty much same as 00z run then!!!!!got good consistency there for now!!although im sure it will change in the next few days!!

Completely not what I was saying !  The 00z op took the low from n Wales in an arc down to se england. The 06z takes it due south from n Wales 

That’s at day 6.  

 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Those totals shown on the ecm are ridiculously overdone. Software in the website is used to extrapolate the accumulations. Not raw data from the ECMWF. This uses a poor algorithm.

Yeah we know..  but it looks good

[swfc]

It's getting like bbc snow watch on here!!! Anyway icon holds steady and gfs early doors know real dramas. Looking at various sites, chatting to folk it seems apparently that the griceland/greenland block is favoured going with the Eastern block building. Don't shoot the messenger BTW. Enjoy your evening

Edited December 23, 2020 by swfc

[North East Blizzard]

13 minutes ago, Howie said:

Yes this is what I was referring to! It even kind of contradicts their written long range forecast doesn't it? Very strange 

Yeah doesn't match the written forecast and we'd need to see a massive change in the models for high pressure to be sat over us by next week like they state. Strange. 

[TSNWK]

UKM144 looks ok to me.. I never saw this mornings so unable to comment if improvements or not

[SLEETY]

So only temporary Northerly then high pressure sitting over UK, at end of the year. I take it the met office use other models  that we the public never see, none of the 3 main models have been showing that. 

Disappointed. 

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Completely not what I was saying !  The 00z op took the low from n Wales in an arc down to se england. The 06z takes it due south from n Wales 

That’s at day 6.  

 

A bit like recent icon then!!!

[Howie]

5 minutes ago, North East Blizzard said:

Yeah doesn't match the written forecast and we'd need to see a massive change in the models for high pressure to be sat over us by next week like they state. Strange. 

Really really weird! I'm just gonna go ahead and ignore it 

[Weathizard]

Wedge potential improved on the GFS at day 6

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

So only temporary Northerly then high pressure sitting over UK, at end of the year. I take it the met office use other models  that we the public never see, none of the 3 main models have been showing that. 

Disappointed. 

I wouldn’t worry - the Met Office were frequently behind the curve during the summer and are slow to update their forecasts it seems.

Edited December 23, 2020 by Djdazzle

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

UKM144 looks ok to me.. I never saw this mornings so unable to comment if improvements or not

Look great synopticaly as most charts have of late, but cold enough for snow to lower levels, no so sure.

[Ben Sainsbury]

GFS & UKMO really quite different at T144 (Day 7). ICON appears to be a middleground.

 

Edited December 23, 2020 by Ben Sainsbury

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

So only temporary Northerly then high pressure sitting over UK, at end of the year. I take it the met office use other models  that we the public never see, none of the 3 main models have been showing that. 

Disappointed. 

We'll see mate. Nothing's verified yet, and the UKMO extended is not infallible. Plenty of positives and plenty of surprises ahead  

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Howie said:

Really really weird! I'm just gonna go ahead and ignore it 

Wasnt that at day 5 ? 

[XtremeUKWeather]

GFS and UKMO GFS has been consistent with bringing in north easterlies next Tuesday, whereas UKMO has been showing the low stay right over us This is because the low is much more west on UKMO Some uncertainty there and needs monitoring

!