Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Anthony Burden]

For all you snow lovers including myself hoping for the white stuff next Monday/Tuesday 

keep to fax charts 96hrs/120 hrs you won’t be disappointed.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

For all you snow lovers including myself hoping for the white stuff next Monday/Tuesday 

keep to fax charts 96hrs/120 hrs you won’t be disappointed.

even FAX charts poor with sea convective showers

[Snowjokes92]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Happy crimbo

Mondays snow from the ECM....

The whole of yorkshire looks to miss out! Gutting but i know snow can appear anyway and these type of charts can be way off mark. Any chance pennine areas will get a dumping as we are between leeds and manchester?

Edited December 25, 2020 by Snowjokes92

[SnowBlake]

Merry Christmas one and all from a snowy Latvia. Here in the east we had a further 3 or 4 inches overnight.

Made it here 3 days before the UK and Baltic states placed travel bans, will worry about the return trip on 3rd when it comes to it!

I must say that the GEM has been the most consistent and accurate in terms of precipitation charts. GFS and others were hit and miss showing more rain than snow but all that has fallen is snow. GEM was first to change 5 days ago to increased chance of snow here yesterday and today and has added light snow to fall for the next couple of days with barely a break. Been spot on 3 or 4 days out.

I have seen from some posts above that Hastings looks to possibly receive a little wintry precip after the weekend, typical that when I go away, this may happen. However, i mustn't grumble. I have this outside right now - taken in the past hour. 3 or 4 inches overnight on top of yesterday's inch or 2.

As much as most in here are wishing for snow, of course there are more important issues currently and I hope that you all stay safe, look after yourselves and those you're able to share today with.

Now go get a drink inside you.

My Latvian partner's family are about to sample a snowball. Let's see how well this goes down.

[Tim Bland]

11 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs looks further south as well with the snow?

Yes, looks very close to Icon imposter above. There will be lots of features / troughs in the flow that models like GFS will not pick up. Keep an eye on the high res models which will start coming into view over the weekend 

[BARRY]

6 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

For all you snow lovers including myself hoping for the white stuff next Monday/Tuesday 

keep to fax charts 96hrs/120 hrs you won’t be disappointed.

It's officially a White Christmas for parts of the UK, as people in parts of England woke up to a dusting of snow.

The Met Office has confirmed early morning snowfall in parts of Humberside and Suffolk this morning.

Leconsfield, near Beverley, woke up to find flurries had fallen overnight, while weather experts also said there had been snowfall in Wattisham in Suffolk.

[Methuselah]

TBH, I'm still not liking the SE-NW transport of 'warm' air through Scandinavia...as long as that continues, the northerlies will keep too far west?

    

But... by T+162, that wee nitpick has been resolved:

    

Edited December 25, 2020 by General Cluster
Wrong words, missing words!

[Snowjokes92]

Merry christmas all btw! Have a fab day what ever you are doing!

[Decemberof2010]

GFS already trending colder for NYE.

Charts at the 0z 162 and the 6z 156

 

Edited December 25, 2020 by Decemberof2010

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Decemberof2010 said:

GFS already trending colder for NYE.

Charts at the 0z 162 and the 6z 156

 

Yes, hopefully more towards this morning's ecm

[markw2680]

Lol just because it’s Christmas dosnt make the precipitation charts anymore correct!! It’s Friday and we are talking about stuff early next week, my advice is have a drink today and have another look at precipitation  charts tomorrow and see how different they are from today. Oh and saying you need -10 uppers for stuff from Cheshire gap is also bull, yes you may need a bit of height but certainly don’t need -10. Honestly can’t believe what I read in here sometimes.

happy Christmas all and have a good  

[Harsh Climate]

Although can't grumble at the charts as there's bags of potential, probably 7.5/10.. But am I right in thinking that while we have troughs/disturbances, low pressure around svalbard we are going to struggle to see any stellar 10/10 charts with either a perfect Greenland high or Scandinavian high? Just a nagging feeling, I'd hate to see 2 weeks of 1-4c max temps with sporadics rain/sleet/ wet snow events before a train of Atlantic systems smash their way in from the west? Obviously if your in the sub 5%, on ground 200/300m+ in the north these are near perfect charts.

Edited December 25, 2020 by Harsh Climate

[Dave Kightley]

Gfs getting less keen on Greenland heights... 2 runs of downgrades by the run next week on that part.. I think a slider trend next weekend is the more probable atm

Edited December 25, 2020 by Dave Kightley

[TSNWK]

Merry Christmas to you all. Wishing you all health, happiness with  frigid and snowy best wishes.   

06z looks to recover on uppers up NYE after the 00z was underwelming..

Heights look less strong towards Greenland but more wedgy.    No idea where we go from here. 

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Dave Kightley said:

Gfs getting less keen on Greenland heights... 2 runs of downgrades by the run next week on that part

Greenland high is always an outside bet though - they are just so rare.

[Howie]

Just when the ECM supports Greenland high the GFS starts to drop it.... irritating 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

Lol just because it’s Christmas dosnt make the precipitation charts anymore correct!! It’s Friday and we are talking about stuff early next week, my advice is have a drink today and have another look at precipitation  charts tomorrow and see how different they are from today. Oh and saying you need -10 uppers for stuff from Cheshire gap is also bull, yes you may need a bit of height but certainly don’t need -10. Honestly can’t believe what I read in here sometimes.

happy Christmas all and have a good  

Yes but the steeper the lapse rates the better and further inland the showers will propagate, you would be very unlikely to get heavy snowfall in Frankley with -6c, sure it might be all snow because of the Altitude but the colder the 850-500mb profile, the better, a strongish wind also preferable to drive the showers, inland, you don't want anything more than gale force though as that can kill convection, certainly don't want storm force or hurricane force.

[TSNWK]

This run us colder than previous out to 204 though.  

[kold weather]

14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Yes, looks very close to Icon imposter above. There will be lots of features / troughs in the flow that models like GFS will not pick up. Keep an eye on the high res models which will start coming into view over the weekend 

Very true and there will be fearures that might crop up short notice, though I do have to say with regarding to a possible big event I was a touch worried yesterday because I was starting to see adjustments south.

For those of us who have been around the block abit, we know that historically LP's tend to adjust southwards as time goes by. EVery single model has been slowly heading further south, even the ECM. Its now at the time point where any more minor adjustments south and its going to be a France snow event not a UK one, and I have to say that is a perfectly plausible solution at this point.

Beyond that and the GFS suite has totally lost the plot with the upper high over the Atlantic, though the 06z GFS OP does look a little more reasonable this time round at least.

I wouldn't be surprised if its just the GFS doing its normal wobble.

 

[IDO]

D7 is the next crux for the pattern moving forward. We have a HP cell moving in from the US and all three models handle it differently (gem/ecm/gfs):

gfs sends the high south to form another Atlantic ridge. so NW to SE flow. 

ecm pumps it in the mix with the Atlantic heights to maintain Greenland heights.

gem splits the energy and we get that ridge SW Azores to NE Iceland. This was a route the gfs explored a day ago and has now ditched.

The gfs has been ahead of the game so far so maybe they are closer to the eventual outcome. So far all roads are leading to a relatively cold pattern which is helpful!

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Howie said:

Just when the ECM supports Greenland high the GFS starts to drop it.... irritating 

Wait a few frames ....ec re amplifies days 9/10 ....... if this gfs op doesn’t then perhaps it’s in transition and we need to wait for the next two runs to see what it’s thinking on the pattern 

[sheikhy]

Nothing wrong with the 06z at all!!its better than the 00z up to 222 hours!!!more amplified western greenland!!

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

Gfs getting less keen on Greenland heights... 2 runs of downgrades by the run next week on that part.. I think a slider trend next weekend is the more probable atm

Yeah, the 06z run looks a little stronger again but the trend for a lobe of the vortex to be in place over W.Greenland is still there this run, and does have some backing from GEM as well...but then agian these are the two most progressive and frankly less reliable models when it comes to blocking patterns forming.

Still looks like a cold pattern is forming, but just not quite as eye wateringly good. Temperatures may well not end up too drastically different though between the different solutions.

[tight isobar]

The recipe for snow chart@ slack inflow of an east/nor/east .. level temperatures worthy.. a definitive snowy period on cards for sure.. geographical points.. the only thorn.. but as per on our maritime island... have a good en

[Skullzrulerz]

I'm a bit concerned with two things

One is the downgrade on the Greenland and two is the PV starting to set up shop 

Not exactly the great start to the day