Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Valleyboy]

9 minutes ago, georgiedre said:

Look at the low coming from Eastern seaboard.. that is a seriously cold low

Remember, it gets moderated when it moves over the sea.

[pinball wizard]

Interesting output tonight, most models now pointing to cold building as we approach the new year. Just been talking to my neighbour Bill who was stressing the importance of solid model output as we near the winter cut-off date. He also mentioned that out walking he'd noticed that the Grebes were facing in a favourable direction for cold pooling. Merry Christmas everyone.

[Methuselah]

Looks like we're gonna be stuck in this rut for some considerable time... And trying to extract any day-to-day details'll be like playing an Xmas game of Murder in The Dark!

     

Patiently awaiting the SSW!

 

[Battleground Snow]

Wasn't going to post today, but the weather patterns are too intriguing to stay away at the moment!

Gem and ukmo are handling the energy differently to the GFS around 168 near new foundland, gem goes for a Greenland high and I think the Ukmo would  go on to show that too, If the ECM shows this too later, it will be ECM, gem, and ukmo v GFS. The GFS seemed to come out on top last time, will it this time too?

 

Edited December 25, 2020 by Battleground Snow

[Mapantz]

Plenty of hefty snow showers packing in to Northern Ireland, Scotland and parts of the Northwest on Sunday, according to the UKV. 

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Plenty of hefty snow showers packing in to Northern Ireland, Scotland and parts of the Northwest on Sunday, according to the UKV. 

I spoke about this yesterday.

The trend to build showers sunday through the cheshire gap

[BARRY]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

I spoke about this yesterday.

The trend to build showers sunday through the cheshire gap

but it's nice to remind people

 

[SnowSalah]

I’m in NI hopefully the trend continues, for whatever reason the snow is usually best out west and we don’t get much in Belfast... Happy Christmas!!

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, BARRY said:

but it's nice to remind people

 

Eh?

[Mike Poole]

17 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Absolute madness of a chart to start the new year. 

Just look at that UK high

[cheshire snow]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I spoke about this yesterday.

The trend to build showers sunday through the cheshire gap

Cheshire Gap you say mate

C.S

[sheikhy]

12 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Plenty of hefty snow showers packing in to Northern Ireland, Scotland and parts of the Northwest on Sunday, according to the UKV. 

Was gona ask any update on the sunday monday snow?

[Kasim Awan]

GEM and GFS in with some pretty cold day time highs under any slack flow which develops under the cold air mass

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Was gona ask any update on the sunday monday snow?

Waiting on the 15Z to look that far. 12Z only goes as far as 18:00 on Sunday. 

[Methuselah]

Fascinating model-watching all round... The UK's stuck in what could end up being a markedly wintry spell of weather -- whilst 20C T850s are encroaching on the Med:

    

Certainly beats Pride & Prejudice!

Edited December 25, 2020 by General Cluster

[IDO]

Good agreement between the models up to d6-7 so we can probably bank that.

Afterwards clarity still needed as to how the Atlantic synoptic develops, but by d10 the gfs and gem having gone different directions with the incoming high, both keep us in a cold setup. Difficult to know which would be the better solution or which way will it go, but the underlying (repeating) pattern may mean it doesn't matters!

gem is similar to its 0z run. As expected the gfs follows the 06z but is indeed messy and best left for more runs.

gem>> 

 

[Skullzrulerz]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Waiting on the 15Z to look that far. 12Z only goes as far as 18:00 on Sunday. 

Sorry to ask but any sleet/snow showing on cornwall up on the model in the next few days ?

[Scott Ingham]

9 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Cheshire Gap you say mate

C.S

Yeah it looks nothing disruptive but i potential for a few cms sunday

[sheikhy]

12z as you were!!¤cold and snow anywhere!!!

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah it looks nothing disruptive but i potential for a few cms sunday

Often forecasters underestimate the significance of a few cms from this set up. Plenty of heavily driven steep roads >500m which are a magnet for inexperienced drivers & lorry accidents. 

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Often forecasters underestimate the significance of a few cms from this set up. Plenty of heavily driven steep roads >500m which are a magnet for inexperienced drivers & lorry accidents. 

Yeah exactly! Where do you have the snow line for this streamer?

[cheshire snow]

4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah it looks nothing disruptive but i potential for a few cms sunday

That's disruptive for here mate

C.S

[swfc]

I actually prefer the 6z gfs to the 12z.nhp looks better to me esp in fi which obv can and will Change. Better Heighths and positioning on the 6 alsi imo obviously

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, cheshire snow said:

That's disruptive for here mate

C.S

Well if so keep your eyes peeled on the high res models tomorrow

[Kasim Awan]

9 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah exactly! Where do you have the snow line for this streamer?

175-250m early 100-150m late. Dropping to 50m >8 miles inland if precip is prolonged and esp later on. Dew points will be low which will help force down the snow line beyond the freezing point.

You might get a decent amount of falling snow at 200m, but temps here will mean slush & snow ratios of 1:5. Go up to 300m and drop this to 1:10++.

Edited December 25, 2020 by Kasim Awan