Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Mike Poole]

Liking the JMA at T192:

Cold already, colder in the wings.  

[Kasim Awan]

7 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Merry Christmas!

 

 

Reasonable evolution.

[booferking]

Yep Day 10 primed and nothing marginal about Day 11-12 of that come off.

[sheikhy]

When looking at the 168 hour chart i really did not expect to see the low scoot across north east america and into northern greenland that quickly!!!expected better heights further into greenland!!its still a brilliant run but could have been a little better!!up to 168 hours no complaints!

[chris55]

43 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

And of course the South West misses out again

In these situations (and they look set for a fair while) I have learnt that ppn tends to move from forecasted positions and often pops up at short notice regardless of the forecast!

as an example....

‘Slantwise convection’ ....yes I’d never heard of it either lol. Totally and utterly unforecast at t12 hours :0 This was 2019

 

[TSNWK]

Personally I feel that both GFS and ECM have trended towards the meh! Catergory for the past 24 hours... looks like that for most we are seeing for fa week at least cold damp conditions 3s and4s by day with sharp frosts at night.

 

[IDO]

Looks like GFS leading the way with the momentum of this spell and the ecm takes a big step towards the gfs, so GH looking unlikely, as we would expect, models always seem to over-egg those in FI. The two models at d10:

gfs> ecm> 

We know from here, from the gefs, that there is a lot of uncertainty, so no point atm looking further. Though we should expect a cool to cold outlook as per those gefs, though no significant cold plunge; the northerlies get cut off due to the recurring pattern so just scraps to top up the trough.

Edited December 25, 2020 by IDO

[Joneseye]

13 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Merry Christmas!

 

 

gotta love a pivot.. Did someone say M4?

[Kasim Awan]

There is a tendency for lower heights to gather around southern Greenland. This should not be mis interpretted as a flatter outlook, because the lower heights will only become shunted SE. Renewed amplification then forming another northerly. The punch line is that the lower heights arouns GL are not a negative from a cold perspective.

Edited December 25, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[Osbourne One-Nil]

6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Where's the laughing emoji when you need it

Removed for obvious reasons and getting around it with a text equivalent isn’t what we’re looking for!

[Matt H]

5 minutes ago, Reversal said:

Big steps in the wrong direction across all runs of all models today. Outlook consistently becoming flatter.

Wasn’t going to post today until I saw this. Not sure whether you’ve been on the sauce this afternoon but I think you’re losing perspective about what a flat pattern actually looks like.

Flat:

Not flat:

We’re in a great position going forward, especially with the SSW potential as well. Anyway, Merry Christmas everyone!

[Anthony Burden]

Superb ECM 12z colder and colder is the theme Greenland high still good to see,possible 

pressure rise later with a reload of low to the north heading south.That is obviously up

to change at that time frame.Till then hats gloves /sledge.

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Osbourne One-Nil said:

Removed for obvious reasons and getting around it with a text equivalent isn’t what we’re looking for!

Understood. We all welcome different interpretations however I think Reversal's post is slightly wrong in this instance. As explained in my above post.

[IDO]

Best to look at this perspective rather than the one some people use:

best> misleading for some>

Clearly, not a flattening pattern!

[Chesil View]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Best to look at this perspective rather than the one some people use:

best> misleading for some>

Clearly, not a flattening pattern!

No indeed. Just a pattern in the process of reamplifying.

[Reversal]

9 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Wasn’t going to post today until I saw this. Not sure whether you’ve been on the sauce this afternoon but I think you’re losing perspective about what a flat pattern actually looks like.

Flat:

Not flat:

We’re in a great position going forward, especially with the SSW potential as well. Anyway, Merry Christmas everyone!

Compared to the output over the last few days? Definitely flatter compared to what had been consistent recent output, which was what I said. But nevermind, objective opinion clearly not welcome.

Edited December 25, 2020 by Reversal

[Frigid]

12Z GFS continues the cold, maybe strengthening it first week of 2021. All looks good to me, lets hope the other models follow

[swfc]

Just now, Reversal said:

Compared to the output over the last few days? Definitely flatter compared to what had been consistent recent output, which was what I said. Bit nevermind, objective opinion clearly not welcome.

Indeed the output has become less amplified  esp in fi. You only have to go back and take a look over the last 7 days. 

[dragan]

1 minute ago, Reversal said:

Compared to the output over the last few days? Definitely flatter compared to what had been consistent recent output, which was what I said. Bit nevermind, objective opinion clearly not welcome.

I think it’s undeniable that the profile is flatter, it’s a fact.

Not saying it won’t get colder, but your right, it’s certainly flatter. 

All part of a great discussion

[Chesil View]

2 minutes ago, Reversal said:

Compared to the output over the last few days? Definitely flatter compared to what had been consistent recent output, which was what I said. But nevermind, objective opinion clearly not welcome.

Did objective opinion not consider the reamplifying process of the pattern.

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, IDO said:

Best to look at this perspective rather than the one some people use:

best> misleading for some>

Clearly, not a flattening pattern!

Even better to look on NH view. 

Anything resembling the vortex is polar of the red line, whereas the black arrow is roughly where we might expect the weather to come from in a flat pattern.  But as you can see it can’t because there are ridges blocking it off.

 

[dragan]

12 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Wasn’t going to post today until I saw this. Not sure whether you’ve been on the sauce this afternoon but I think you’re losing perspective about what a flat pattern actually looks like.

Flat:

Not flat:

We’re in a great position going forward, especially with the SSW potential as well. Anyway, Merry Christmas everyone!

He is saying FLATTER not flat.

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Even better to look on NH view. 

Anything resembling the vortex is polar of the red line, whereas the black arrow is roughly where we might expect the weather to come from in a flat pattern.  But as you can see it can’t because there are ridges blocking it off.

 

Isn't that day 10 and in fi

[Eskimo]

9 minutes ago, Reversal said:

Compared to the output over the last few days? Definitely flatter compared to what had been consistent recent output, which was what I said. Bit nevermind, objective opinion clearly not welcome.

Agreed. Always tends to be some bitterness/tribalism in here when someone goes against the grain, and unfortunately when someone does, there's usually an element of childish mocking that follows and its embarrassing when you consider most people in here are likely to be adults.

You are right though, I've noticed an element of the pattern to flatten too, but more particularly in the ECM rather than all the models. However, I'll reserve my own judgement about further developments until the weekend. 

 

Edited December 25, 2020 by Eskimo

[MATTWOLVES 3]

29 minutes ago, Reversal said:

Big steps in the wrong direction across all runs of all models today. Outlook consistently becoming flatter.

I've seen nothing in the output,either myself or from the top guys on here,or from the pros further afield to back this up mate..but its all about opinions on here,and if that's how you see it...then thats fine  

Edited December 25, 2020 by MATTWOLVES