Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Fozfoster]

I said nope nope nope I was not walking down that garden path ever again .....but yes I've find myself at the bottom of the path this is looking like a memorable spell of weather. Thanks to all the posters too that make this place special. Happy Christmas everyone hope you all get some of the white fluffy stuff. Right back to my port and your commentary  

[Reversal]

Cold in the medium term, but longer term a definite trend over the last 48 hours towards a less amplified NH profile in the long term. GFS dropping a Greenland high, with each run showing lower heights in that area. Hopefully not the beginning of a pattern change for the worst.

[Eagle Eye]

GEFS hardly moving into the New Year a blocking low sorrounded by a flimsy Atlantic High and a Flimsy Siberian High will eventually break through. As seen later on. 

 

[Mike Poole]

GEM ends with a renewed push of heights into Greenland, Scandi link, slack low pressures over UK, and probably just enough cold air now to be confident any precipitation will be snow in many places:

850s at T240:

Happy new year!

[sheikhy]

Fantastic control at 204 hours!!!just shows you dont need strong blocking to get a cold and snowy spell!!cold is solidly entrneched!!

[SMU]

Uber rare synoptics for the UK - Normally wind & rain approaching from the west however 

* Start of Jan

* Very low heights

* Slack continental flow

* Cold uppers

* Poss snow cover

= Ice days...

A great example of where you dont need -12c uppers !!!

( control 204 )

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Uber rare synoptics for the UK - Normally wind & rain approaching from the west however 

* Start of Jan

* Very low heights

* Slack continental flow

* Cold uppers

* Poss snow cover

= Ice days...

A great example of where you dont need -12c uppers !!!

( control 204 )

Spot on. Inverted heaven.

[iowpompeylee]

14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Uber rare synoptics for the UK - Normally wind & rain approaching from the west however 

* Start of Jan

* Very low heights

* Slack continental flow

* Cold uppers

* Poss snow cover

= Ice days...

A great example of where you dont need -12c uppers !!!

( control 204 )

Could of had that statement on at 3pm today Mr Murr! Glorious  

Edited December 25, 2020 by iowpompeylee

[Eagle Eye]

Cold air flowing down from the Arctic

Uppers

@Steve Murr on board 

Now all we need is for this run

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Uber rare synoptics for the UK - Normally wind & rain approaching from the west however 

* Start of Jan

* Very low heights

* Slack continental flow

* Cold uppers

* Poss snow cover

= Ice days...

A great example of where you dont need -12c uppers !!!

( control 204 )

To continue that trend and stay on track and go to this still. 

Continental Air flow

Uppers

 

[stratty]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Uber rare synoptics for the UK - Normally wind & rain approaching from the west however 

* Start of Jan

* Very low heights

* Slack continental flow

* Cold uppers

* Poss snow cover

= Ice days...

A great example of where you dont need -12c uppers !!!

( control 204 )

...............you forgot to mention possible chances of snowfall ...............anywhere! 

[Battleground Snow]

Very snowy parallel too 

 

Edited December 25, 2020 by Battleground Snow

[Mike Poole]

GFS 12z parallel later evolution seems to follow the GEM, but goes further:

Check uppers at T240:

And it nukes the strat as early as T270:

 

[The Northern Ramper]

Looks like we have a ticket for the Siberian express.

[BARRY]

Just now, Ramp said:

Looks like we have a ticket for the Siberian express.

 

[Battleground Snow]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 12z parallel later evolution seems to follow the GEM, but goes further:

Check uppers at T240:

And it nukes the strat as early as T270:

 

Mike, do you think the ECM and parallel are seeing the easterlies flushing down the trop faster than the regular GFS, thus creating the blocking at higher latitudes?

Edited December 25, 2020 by Battleground Snow

[Griff]

Typical... Things keep getting pushed further back... 

Sunday night into Monday morning snow risk IMBY now pushed all the way back to Monday night into Tuesday morning... 

Oh the inhumanity of it all, how will we cope? Winter is ever so slightly delayed

Obviously I'm kidding and remain very satisfied compared to the usual mild and wet alternative. Anyone playing model watch bingo can tick off 'seasonal' as a gift from me today. Had a lovely but chilly walk before sunset. Weather app said 3c but puddles had already frozen over again and plenty of frost in the shade that lasted all day. 

Not sure any trends in FI (for desired weather or otherwise) are locked on at day 10 plus. Expect drama downgrades, upgrades and head scratching too. 

Remember an op run isn't a weather forecast. 

I'm a bit thick and slow on the uptake, but follow the money... I mean follow the mean. No dramas so far. 

To my knowledge latest anomaly charts for January show heights into Greenland, so I'd expect the pattern to evolve towards this as we go forward. 

Remain calm! 

[Kasim Awan]

Confidence is now growing quite dramatically for a surface easterly around days 8-10. Great to see models trending this way. Further pulses of WAA will strengthen the Griceland ridge. This aligning the jet NNE to SSW days 8 to 10. The slack low gets pushed SE, resultantly becomes more organized & meets some splitting jet energy which has been shunted south under the main high. This again helping with an easterly before eyes to the North West again.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Mike, do you think the ECM and parallel are seeing the easterlies flushing down the trop faster than the regular GFS, thus creating the blocking at higher higher latitudes?

Do you mean from the strat?  If so, no it’s too early for that, earliest would be 2 weeks after reversal of winds in the strat.  I think the blocking is trop led, and is actually accelerating the split (if there is to be one) in the strat, if that makes sense.  

[AmershamMike]

Why is the Met office app forecast so....”meh”? Told the kids we would have snow in the chilterns next week. 

[Kentspur]

18 minutes ago, Griff said:

Typical... Things keep getting pushed further back... 

Sunday night into Monday morning snow risk IMBY now pushed all the way back to Monday night into Tuesday morning... 

Oh the inhumanity of it all, how will we cope? Winter is ever so slightly delayed

Obviously I'm kidding and remain very satisfied compared to the usual mild and wet alternative. Anyone playing model watch bingo can tick off 'seasonal' as a gift from me today. Had a lovely but chilly walk before sunset. Weather app said 3c but puddles had already frozen over again and plenty of frost in the shade that lasted all day. 

Not sure any trends in FI (for desired weather or otherwise) are locked on at day 10 plus. Expect drama downgrades, upgrades and head scratching too. 

Remember an op run isn't a weather forecast. 

I'm a bit thick and slow on the uptake, but follow the money... I mean follow the mean. No dramas so far. 

To my knowledge latest anomaly charts for January show heights into Greenland, so I'd expect the pattern to evolve towards this as we go forward. 

Remain calm! 

This is a good thing in my opinion, another day of ground cooling prior to the event. Also did anyone see the last BBC weather forecast it showed a swathe of the country under snow  South of Midlands and Wales then also affecting London and the home counties including mine and Steve Murr's NW Kent, although it looked like rain East of Kent and coastal EA

Edited December 25, 2020 by Kentspur

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, AmershamMike said:

Why is the Met office app forecast so....”meh”? Told the kids we would have snow in the chilterns next week. 

Because it’s an app?

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, AmershamMike said:

Why is the Met office app forecast so....”meh”? Told the kids we would have snow in the chilterns next week. 

That was a very brave call.

[Kasim Awan]

Chilterns highs of 3-4c

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Chilterns highs of 3-4c

Won’t get much snow with those temps - not with frontal snow anyway.

Edited December 25, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Stav]

11 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Confidence is now growing quite dramatically for a surface easterly around days 8-10. Great to see models trending this way. Further pulses of WAA will strengthen the Griceland ridge. This aligning the jet NNE to SSW days 8 to 10. The slack low gets pushed SE, resultantly becomes more organized & meets some splitting jet energy which has been shunted south under the main high. This again helping with an easterly before eyes to the North West again.

How long does the Easterly look like lasting? I hope it is set for a while.