Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[sheikhy]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

@Tim Bland sorry 

Still chopping and changing run to run even at this range.

 

Yeh hoping for a push north in the next couple of days

[Battleground Snow]

Ecm more gem than GFS at 168, will we see the Greenland high or will it be a near miss?

 

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

@Tim Bland sorry 

Still chopping and changing run to run even at this range.

 

That will be just fine for me and Tim 8cm will do

[markw2680]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

@Tim Bland sorry 

Still chopping and changing run to run even at this range.

 

It will chop and change right up until couple of hours before 

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

That will be just fine for me and Tim 8cm will do

Haha, I'll take the 2cm in Coventry too. None for @sheikhy

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

20 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

There has? I think we all realise that we're headed into a spell of wintry weather? 

Merry Christmas, anyway, Fred!

Waiting for t384 bbq post .  I realised we were back in September Pete

 

Beautiful

BFTP

Edited December 25, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

@Tim Bland sorry 

Still chopping and changing run to run even at this range.

 

As always, a perfect gap around Bournemouth

[Kasim Awan]

8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Cracker jack ecm at 144 hours!!!!!!parameters are pretty much perfect for snow sunday night monday for the midlands!!!!got -5 850s to boot!!!

Spot on. -5 uppers in those heights are equivalent to -7 uppers in an easterly in terms of inland surface temps

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168.  Bet those two highs connect

(Yes, I have seen the GEM so I know the ending!)

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Haha, I'll take the 2cm in Coventry too. None for @sheikhy

Well its pushed north again so could go even further north hopefully and give you more and finally give me something lol

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

As always, a perfect gap around Bournemouth

Like with cloud cover in summer, you’re cursed!

[Kentspur]

ECM says kiss goodbye to W -NAO

[Kentspur]

25 minutes ago, DCee said:

Unfortunately this front will be mostly of rain, with any snow on the back edge but unlikely to settle away from 200m. All in my opinion as a humble human being with experience. 

Happy to be proved wrong! 

This will be massively wrong if that's the case

[Tim Bland]

11 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

@Tim Bland sorry 

Still chopping and changing run to run even at this range.

 

Haha went to post and thought I’d just check I hadn’t been beaten to it! I doubt it will trend north, it may even go a bit further south and east as this has been the trend so far.. As MWB says the precip area has expanded and this could happen. Further IMO 

[swfc]

7 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

ECM says kiss goodbye to W -NAO

Its still moving nnw tbh but so fluid it could be over Iceland tomorrow 

Still looking west based atm and pulling towards the esb

Edited December 25, 2020 by swfc

[SMU]

ECM 216 is a bit meh like its been for days / but who cares at this stage as those meh charts are gone on the next run....

[Mapantz]

Merry Christmas!

 

 

[snowspotter]

18 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

@Tim Bland sorry 

Still chopping and changing run to run even at this range.

 

I’ve still not got over the last chart from the same source that predicted 25cm of snow in Surrey early December . To be honest it’s a load of rubbish 

[Howie]

The amplification is toned down with the vortex cutting back across Greenland. Hopefully the models will pick up on the +EAMT that will Hopefully increase amplification 

[sparky1972]

hope everyone has had a fantastic Christmas day and the weather gods can give parts of the uk a winter everyone craves, i have just set up my new weather station so hopefully it will be christened with some low temps and snow to record, i doubt it but here is hoping, take care tomorrow night as storm Bella comes through then the hope for cold and snow can go from there.

[Chertseystreamer79]

1 hour ago, AmershamMike said:

Why is the Met office app forecast so....”meh”? Told the kids we would have snow in the chilterns next week. 

You've told someone!!!! Even worse it was the kids! We are doomed!

[Nick F]

28 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM 12Z, Now this was much more like what I was expecting for Monday morning

A much more substantial area of precipitation for southern England - this is 11am, it had passed through the cotswolds & west midlands in previous hours. It will work it's way through the SE in the hours after, maybe even pivoting to give a heavy fall somewhere.

Still too far out to pinpoint exact locations where this will happen, but in general areas between west midlands and south coast is at risk of heavy snow and/or a wintry mix if parameters are ever so slightly on the warm side (e.g. ARPEGE 12Z).

Further north, frequent wintry showers with not a small risk if further organised bands of sleet/snow

 

 

28 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM 12Z, Now this was much more like what I was expecting for Monday morning

A much more substantial area of precipitation for southern England - this is 11am, it had passed through the cotswolds & west midlands in previous hours. It will work it's way through the SE in the hours after, maybe even pivoting to give a heavy fall somewhere.

Still too far out to pinpoint exact locations where this will happen, but in general areas between west midlands and south coast is at risk of heavy snow and/or a wintry mix if parameters are ever so slightly on the warm side (e.g. ARPEGE 12Z).

Further north, frequent wintry showers with not a small risk if further organised bands of sleet/snow

 

15z UKV taking a similar route to 12z EC. Too early to call whether this is the likely track. 

Mapantz beat me to it!

Edited December 25, 2020 by Nick F

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 216 is a bit meh like its been for days / but who cares at this stage as those meh charts are gone on the next run....

Vortex on the move across to Siberia temporary flattening followed by Arctic flood gates.

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

 

15z UKV taking a similar route to 12z EC. Too early to call whether this is the likely track. 

!!!please push north in the next 48 hours!!!!!even if i dont get mondays snow surely a chance will come in the next 2 weeks

[AmershamMike]

1 minute ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

You've told someone!!!! Even worse it was the kids! We are doomed!

I’m doomed, sorry. !!!