Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Griff]

6z plants the GFS firmly back on safer ground. 

Doesn't look too far west or particularly mild for the next couple of weeks. 

More knowledgeable folk are better placed to comment on slack flows etc, but I can only imagine the mean is continuing to descend or else remains flat lined, I suspect the PV will resurrect before Easter, but no second comings anytime soon.

Anyone know where the op sat within the ensembles? 

Enjoyed a slap-up lunch today in a fantastic tier 2 restaurant which descends in to Oxfordshire tier 4 tomorrow. Essentially a lockdown. 

I've not been around here long enough to know charts like this before, but feeling as if we might be heading into a long overdue meteorological lockdown. 

[Eagle Eye]

I'm probably not going to be on here for the rest of the day so Merry Christmas and just quickly herec's my rundown of the Charts at the moment. 

Certainly a long lasting Low. 

[Frosty.]

Fingers crossed that a SSW ( sudden stratospheric warming )..try saying that when you’re pished!!... will favour us poor sods in good old Blighty!!..but, the GEFS 6z mean sure looks cold early next month..fingers crossed GANG!..charts still upside down, back to front..yeah I’m still pished..but I will be sober in the morning..promise!!!

 

Edited December 25, 2020 by Jon Snow

[Skullzrulerz]

ICON should be rolling out shortly as well the GFS ! Let's hope for some Xmas upgrades 

[sheikhy]

What an icon!!!cold all the way to the end!!atlantic blocked out!!!

[SqueakheartLW]

This is what the latest GFS extended runs are showing for my location Scunthorpe

Generally below average mean except for 26th/27th December and late January but a lot of scatter after the next 10 days or so but nothing massively above average based on the mean

[LetItSnow!]

i think one good thing to remember (apart from the fact it’s a blessing to have seasonably cold weather with a risk of snow) is that even without unprecedented upper/surface air temperatures, it’s a chance to lower ground temperatures and build our own cold pool which can enhance any severe cold spells in the future. i think the general consensus should be, stick to day 10 at most & be cheerful! fantastic output at the moment 

[IDO]

ICON follows the gfs solution post-d7 with the ex-US HP rebuilding the Atlantic ridge for maybe rinse and repeat pattern?

ICON run> 

 

[Skullzrulerz]

4 minutes ago, IDO said:

ICON follows the gfs solution post-d7 with the ex-US HP rebuilding the Atlantic ridge for maybe rinse and repeat pattern?

ICON run> 

 

That's a disappointment we lose the high risk and high reward for colder weather down the line

[snowice]

Gfs at 54 hours

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

That's a disappointment we lose the high risk and high reward for colder weather down the line

Not really - it gives more of us a better opportunity down the line. High risk, high reward situations - you need to get lucky, and a lot of people won’t!

[NewEra21]

Just by glancing at the models today, they don't seem to look the best compared to recent days. 

Don't shoot me as I've only glanced at them today and not studied them properly.

But here's hoping I'm just drunk and reading the charts upside down  

Merry Christmas everyone!!!

[Kasim Awan]

A potential snow evolution for Monday / Tuesday is gaining considerable support in the model output.

A more south westerly track of the shortwave centre west Wales before making progress eastwards in the Channel on Monday. This would produce wintry precipitation across Wales, the Midlands and a line south of about the M4. Mostly snow for Wales & West Mids with a sleety mix most likely for Southern England. 

Conditions turn drier temporarily before an area of precip heads inland into low dewpoints on Monday night. Potential for a few cm potentially the Midlands. Some marginality with this due to mixing near the coast and perhaps a more significant advancement of the snow line late Tuesday due to an easterly eroding the surface cold slice. 

This next area is placed on the north western side of the shortwave centred off the east coast of East Anglia.

Cold PM feed will also drive in wintry showers late Sunday with significant accumulations fairly widely >300m in the usual prone areas. This locally dropping to 150m late Sunday night perhaps NW England.

Edited December 25, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[snowice]

Gfs 96hrs looking steady 

[BARRY]

3 minutes ago, snowice said:

Gfs 96hrs looking steady 

as long as the boat ain't rocked it's going to be one hell of a ride

 

[Kasim Awan]

Stonking UKMO @ 144H

Also watch early Tuesday

P.S. I have recorded a white Xmas

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Stonking UKMO @ 144H

Also watch early Tuesday

P.S. I have recorded a white Xmas

Would you say South Wales valleys has a good chance of snow on Monday?

[snowice]

Cold getting closer gfs120

[radiohead]

GFS accumulations up to Tuesday night showing mainly a 1cm dusting for the lucky areas, with high ground in Scotland obviously doing quite a bit better!

 

[georgiedre]

10 minutes ago, snowice said:

Cold getting closer gfs120

Look at the low coming from Eastern seaboard.. that is a seriously cold low

[Country Boy]

Brother in law who lives in Onterio. Some up to 5 inches of snow this morning.

And it's the Eastern Seaboard. Cold moving our way.

 

[IDO]

The 12z pretty much in line with the 06z for the long-wave pattern up until d7:

Looking at the gefs from there to d10 it can get a bit messy from the developing pattern, with a widening variation of the theme. This scenario was the main cluster and the GH is more noise, with a Greenland>Iceland wedge the next favoured ensemble clustering.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

UKMO 12z run...cold and very solid blocking and a cold SPELL not snap.  Merry Christmas, there’s not just snow coming for the peak of Ben Nevis.  
 

BFTP

[ALL ABOARD]

Absolute madness of a chart to start the new year. 

Slack pressure

Surface cold

Cold pool building in situ  

Blocked off Atlantic

All ABOARD the cold train. 

[Kasim Awan]

Big upgrade to 6z and supports easterly at 200-240h which is hinted at on glosea now