Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[keithlucky]

Very interesting weather across the central and Eastern USA,the polar votex strengthening send colder and colder air down to surface, coldest air will cause records to tumble.

[keithlucky]

Just now, keithlucky said:

Very interesting weather across the central and Eastern USA,the polar votex strengthening send colder and colder air down to surface, coldest air will cause records to tumble.

As the polar votex alters its shape its now sending a polar bomb towards ice with blizzards hitting iceland  over the next week.                                             There is signs that the polar votex will transfer over to Siberia at the end of the month, which if this happens we could see another late spring as we could drag in a  freezing easterly wind.This is the largest polar votex recorded in recent times, ,this the reason for our settled, boring   winter weather for some.

[snefnug]

A day of blue skies, sunshine and wintery showers.  Go round one hill, sunshine, 5 minutes later wet snow.  Off and on all day, but with a chilly wind.  

[Sky Full]

This weekend has been a write-off so far with a strong, gusty wind and constant rain.  Even heavier rain this morning and the wind is due to increase through the morning but it’s not the worst we’ve had so no damage expected!   I don’t expect to do anything useful outside today.  One thing to mention is that we’ve had huge numbers of starlings flying across the valley every morning for the last few weeks.  Depending on the weather they sometimes fly very low just across the rooftops, or higher in huge flocks right across the sky.  Must be tens of thousands of them roosting about five miles away.  Tried to film it but my internet speed is so poor I can’t upload it…..

Edited February 13, 2022 by Sky Full
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[snefnug]

8 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

This weekend has been a write-off so far with a strong, gusty wind and constant rain.  Even heavier rain this morning and the wind is due to increase through the morning but it’s not the worst we’ve had so no damage expected!   I don’t expect to do anything useful outside today.  One thing to mention is that we’ve had huge numbers of starlings flying across the valley every morning for the last few weeks.  Depending on the weather they sometimes fly very low just across the rooftops, or higher in huge flocks right across the sky.  Must be tens of thousands of them roosting about five miles away.  Tried to film it but my internet speed is so poor I can’t upload it…..

Pantsy weather here too.  Likewise wasted garden weekend.  Do large mumurations of starlings signify anything other than there’s lots of them?

[Sky Full]

12 hours ago, snefnug said:

Pantsy weather here too.  Likewise wasted garden weekend.  Do large mumurations of starlings signify anything other than there’s lots of them?

There’s been starling roosts reported in Pembrokeshire for several years, and another famous one at Aberystwyth pier.  The huge flocks which gather are thought to be for their protection from predators which are confused by the sheer numbers but I saw a film of an owl picking off starlings under Aberystwyth pier one by one so it doesn’t look like a brilliant strategy to me!  Many of them migrate to Northern Europe and Scandinavia in the spring so I don’t expect to see them for much longer.  It’s been an amazing sight this year, but despite their apparent success they are sadly another of our common birds in decline.  

 

Edited February 13, 2022 by Sky Full

[snefnug]

32 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

There’s been starling roosts reported in Pembrokeshire for several years, and another famous one at Aberystwyth pier.  The huge flocks which gather are thought to be for their protection from predators which are confused by the sheer numbers but I saw a film of an owl picking off starlings under Aberystwyth pier one by one so it doesn’t look like a brilliant strategy to me!  Many of them migrate to Northern Europe and Scandinavia in the spring so I don’t expect to see them for much longer.  It’s been an amazing sight this year, but despite their apparent success they are sadly another of our common birds in decline.  

 

Where I walk the dog Norman, on the tops, the last two years have seen a remarkable increase in flock numbers, prior to that, very few.  Also, we always get fieldfares, and again, the last two years, much larger flocks, ditto jackdaws.  Today saw huge flock of mixed birds, far  larger than I’ve seen before - crows, jackdaws, magpies and starlings on the ground  before they all winged off in their groups, so wonder what is going on. 

Edited February 13, 2022 by snefnug

[CLH]

Friday looking fruity. 8 years ago this week February had some pretty violent winds for Wales (and a sting jet?)

[CLH]

There are also spring tides this week? Wednesday evening at 6 ish and Friday morning at 7 ish looking to co-incide with some high tides.

[DeepSnow]

It's looking like we could very well get some wild weather in Wales Friday, could be some heavy snow from sort of the valleys north and especially with elevation. Will be an interesting few days of model watching ahead!

[keithlucky]

21 hours ago, snefnug said:

Where I walk the dog Norman, on the tops, the last two years have seen a remarkable increase in flock numbers, prior to that, very few.  Also, we always get fieldfares, and again, the last two years, much larger flocks, ditto jackdaws.  Today saw huge flock of mixed birds, far  larger than I’ve seen before - crows, jackdaws, magpies and starlings on the ground  before they all winged off in their groups, so wonder what is going on. 

I'm afraid some behaviour of birds,due our food waste for example starlings living off bins and flocks of magpies living on tips, 30 to 40 together they were always territorial, especially breeding time and would fight.Starling ripping rubbish bags open and raiding street bins.And foxes more common around us than cats strolling around as if they in charge lol.

[Sky Full]

On 13/02/2022 at 21:19, snefnug said:

Where I walk the dog Norman, on the tops, the last two years have seen a remarkable increase in flock numbers, prior to that, very few.  Also, we always get fieldfares, and again, the last two years, much larger flocks, ditto jackdaws.  Today saw huge flock of mixed birds, far  larger than I’ve seen before - crows, jackdaws, magpies and starlings on the ground  before they all winged off in their groups, so wonder what is going on. 

I like the sound of Norman - got any pictures?  In the meantime, better tie everything loose down before Friday morning looking at some of the models.  This is from the UKMO which doesn’t usually overdo it….

….150km/hr gusts is around 90mph and that would be very damaging for some if it happens.  I’ve got a new roof planned for the summer but the old one might not last that long…..

[keithlucky]

16 hours ago, DeepSnow said:

It's looking like we could very well get some wild weather in Wales Friday, could be some heavy snow from sort of the valleys north and especially with elevation. Will be an interesting few days of model watching ahead!

Yes Friday Saturday hail sleet snow blizzards over hills we got the lot.

Edited February 15, 2022 by keithlucky
Error

[DeepSnow]

27 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Yes Friday Saturday hail sleet snow blizzards over hills we got the lot.

I may have to take a drive somewhere to get my winter snow fix Saturday lol can't see costal areas getting any in the near future. 

 

Edit - as I just looked in the model threads it seems the low could go further south (could all change by tomorrow) but does bring the increasing risk for snow even on South costal areas, could be a surprise or two if the south corrections continue?

Edited February 15, 2022 by DeepSnow

[CLH]

NW has 82mph gusts for S Wales at 8 am on Friday.

I know we can't put much faith in spot forecasts yet but, 8 am is high spring tide too.

[keithlucky]

7 hours ago, DeepSnow said:

I may have to take a drive somewhere to get my winter snow fix Saturday lol can't see costal areas getting any in the near future. 

 

Edit - as I just looked in the model threads it seems the low could go further south (could all change by tomorrow) but does bring the increasing risk for snow even on South costal areas, could be a surprise or two if the south corrections continue?

Upgrade for Friday snow potential a good covering possible over high ground.Possible yellow warning over Wales,Let's hope LP tracks further south to increase our snow potential.

[Sky Full]

Nature always balances herself out - I guess we’re shortly going to be paying for a generally settled and, dare I say it, dry January.  This week may not even be the last one where we see stormy weather before the end of February.

[Sky Full]

The latest chart from the UKMO for Friday morning is quite sobering.  If their prediction is correct then the west coast of Wales could see widespread gusts of 90mph and even 100mph is shown affecting parts of Pembrokeshire and the south coast ….

 

It is worth noting that other models predict the course and strength of Storm Eunice differently and not all are so pessimistic but it’s best to keep watching up to Thursday evening to get the most accurate indications.  It’s also probably a good idea not to plan any unnecessary travel in South Wales on Friday.

Edited February 16, 2022 by Sky Full

[snefnug]

On 14/02/2022 at 22:36, Sky Full said:

I like the sound of Norman - got any pictures?  In the meantime, better tie everything loose down before Friday morning looking at some of the models.  This is from the UKMO which doesn’t usually overdo it….

….150km/hr gusts is around 90mph and that would be very damaging for some if it happens.  I’ve got a new roof planned for the summer but the old one might not last that long…..

Don’t think the dog Norman or I will be walking the tops…..   wondering if I’ll be able to get his 93 year old human to her pre-op Friday.

[DeepSnow]

Well it was pretty windy in the early hours this morning with 30-40mph gusts and to think Friday could be 70-80+ here in Barry like most Southern counties is a bit worrying. Despite being a costal town we don't often see more than 60mph gusts here away from the immediate coast.

 

It is nice to have some exciting weather just hope it doesn't prove to be too destructive.

 

Interesting to see the BBC weather just said at the moment the snow will be over north England, north Wales and southern Scotland but wind gusts of 60-70mph, which is less than any of the models are prediction. They airing on the side of caution till tomorrow when they have a better idea of things?

Edited February 16, 2022 by DeepSnow

[CLH]

It's recycling day here and, needless to say, the entire estate is carnage (as usual).

Pretty hairy overnight but this seems like chicken feed next to Friday. I can imagine serious issues on all bridges in S and W Wales.

[keithlucky]

16 hours ago, keithlucky said:

Upgrade for Friday snow potential a good covering possible over high ground.Possible yellow warning over Wales,Let's hope LP tracks further south to increase our snow potential.

Another upgrade rain snow as front clears even in SWales.

[snefnug]

Amber warning issued.

 

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

 

[DeepSnow]

I expect western and Southern counties of Wales will go red sometime tomorrow, unless there is a downgrade in wind strength

Edited February 16, 2022 by DeepSnow

[Jackfrost]

I hate to be *that* person, and I didn't see the point in posting this in the relevant threads and causing bad feeling, but it really is frustrating and even a little bit insulting to see Wales left out of the conversation over this week's weather. Time and again, discussion about wind speeds and (potential) snowfall make reference to the Midlands, southern, southwest England and southeast England, while Wales all but ceases to exist; this is despite output showing Wales potentially seeing the worst, both in terms of windspeed and snowfall. Surely you don't even have to be a nationalist to find this a kick in the teeth.

Anyway, I'd say there's a high chance of Friday developing into a serious situation Wales-wide. A red warning tomorrow seems very likely, with Eunice being the worst windstorm here since the 1990 Burns' Day storm, and if not that then the Oct. 2002 event (which I personally remember as being very severe). There's also the issue of the ICON, which has been sticking to its guns and taking the worst of the winds further south with blizzards across Wales (and the rest of central Britain too). It's on its own with this, but the other models show the potential for a wraparound after the storm moves through bringing in the potential of wintriness in the form of showers. There's also the potential of a storm surge around the Welsh coast, but particularly the Bristol Channel due to the funnel shape of the coast there; the last major storm surge there was in 1981, I believe, but look into 1607 for an extraordinarily destructive event with thousands of deaths (although it's also widely believed that this could have been a tsunami caused by a submarine landslide off the coast of Ireland). Expect closure of bridges, disruption to rail services, power cuts, and possible precautionary closures of schools if a red warning is issued tomorrow.

Along with some nervousness, we really love the drama of all this, don't we? 

Edited February 16, 2022 by Jackfrost