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Model Output Discussion - Into the new year


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Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
29 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon here at 162 v 174 00z run, not too sure what to make of it, looks an improvement with low heights in Europe and high pressure north of the UK and a Easterly flow

 

iconnh-0-174 (1).png

iconnh-0-162 (1).png

I hope that isn't the polar vortex setting up shop in Greenland

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

GFS day 6

image.thumb.png.9ec61da389e13b022d7aad13d2194544.png

Well it certainly isn’t going to let the Atlantic through in the traditional sense. Heights still low over the U.K. with 850s looking cold (generally around the -5/6c mark).

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

GFS 12z showing colder air coming south quite early on.-8c uppers into Scotland by day 4 extending further south.Probably a trough in that with snow hitting the north of Scotland.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

It depends what you define as significant. In terms of what's on the table of course it is significant.

I guess most would define a significant snow even my as one which allows for snow men and sledging? I guess 5cm + as a minimum. As I’ve said for days for 99% of the population this isn’t shown. Only for highest peaks of Pennines, and welsh / Scottish mountains ?  A dusting perhaps for some as per Aperge , but I’m not being drawn in Harmonie after she broke my heart before!

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Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London

GFS seems to have finally seen the light I see, fantastic run! Looks like the high is becoming cut off over Iceland 

Edited by Howie
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The gfs is following the ICON here to some degree,what a run so far.

gfsnh-0-168.thumb.png.d7295dc940f103c135863a9d90970d8f.pngiconnh-0-168.thumb.png.c960c4dccc1a46c69ac1ed38fb7e4f61.png

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Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Stunner incoming

8F1D5A21-4BAD-4423-9064-6700E3154DD6.png

The low is disrupting beautifully

Colder air starting to leak out of Siberia 

GFSOPNH12_177_2.png

Edited by Howie
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Daytime maxes not getting much above 0C and bitterly cold nights with hard/severe frosts. 

image.thumb.png.df3344e3b20932cf32fdbb75b4750425.png
 

Edited by Eskimo
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Absolutely no complaints from me on this NH profile...things ticking along very nicely.

gfsnh-0-168.png

gfsnh-0-174.png

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

The Icelandic high almost always delivers for the U.K., probably safer than a GH or Scandi High, this is only at day 7 now. 

Im remaining cautious though because the GFS has lost the plot at the minute, the last 4 runs since yesterday afternoon have been wildly swinging back and forth

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