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Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

SMU

By SMU
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
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Posted

The fax for midday tomorrow

fax36s.thumb.gif.7e0b67eeba4824031b472d5240c04092.gif

Signs of activity around the Uk with those fronts and trough lines.Tricky to forecast localise conditions though taking into account precipitation intensity,temperature through the layers. Elevation could well be a factor for snow as well as coastal influences etc etc.

Interesting setup though and often radar watching on the day is the best way to monitor movements of these features.

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon....

You can sense the excitement building in here...

This cold spell will have many layers however the theme of cold becoming colder & colder > with the possibility of an even colder layer to come ( day 10 > )

The ensembles can be layered in the same way > 

06z displays this nicely...

65CEECB9-FBAC-4EF7-8DA5-C93F2A0B1DF8.thumb.jpeg.2a651c48bbaa256c9803837fa2d083e5.jpeg

So as we head through this week > as the cold air becomes established & milder layers of the boundry layer mix out & rain / sleet is replaced by sleet / snow....

Many thanks for starting up a new thread ?? Last one was starting to slow down again, as though there were some flying snails trying to pull Santa’s sleigh

Some fun weather the models are unearthing for the cold and snow fans throughout this week. Hopefully a good number of us can get in on some white stuff. Quite far away from the typical Westerly to South-Westerly setup we’re often used to with a Vortex that just can seem to be bothered this Winter 

If anyone comes across any problems with posts, such as those that are mean, out to cause a reaction, or just plain off topic, please report them. And we’ll get out our zappers and vaporise the offending posts ?? 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted
9 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

UKV 12z shows a slight eastward shift compared to its 9z run, slight uptick in intensity too.

4z.thumb.png.153911d34e998b11d2701530162d6074.png8z.thumb.png.dacc72316b1a4fdb9f91fe25a07564a2.png10z.thumb.png.7b4ee9f627e601938858556b1f3587a5.png

 

That would be an extremely poor outcome. 

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philglossop Community Regular

philglossop

Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
Posted
1 minute ago, MKN said:

That would be an extremely poor outcome. 

Ahem ill take that happily. Wintery for South Devon - yes please! 

And to think we've got a SSW effect to look forward to in a couple of weeks. The pieces are all falling into place- past solar minimum, torques falling sweetly and QBO going E. 

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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted (edited)

Icon similar amounts wrt precip as ukv. This is going to be extremely localised and a dusting to a few cms at best unfortunately. 

iconeu_uk1-1-20-0.png

Edited by MKN
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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Shouldn’t be a surprise - it was never looking like anything substantial. 

Some outputs last night were alot better. 

1723A0F4-4FD0-4CCE-BD69-088FE921EB56.webp

Edited by MKN
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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted

Not sure why the front is decaying so much given the strength of the low.

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
1 minute ago, MKN said:

Some outputs last night were alot better. 

1723A0F4-4FD0-4CCE-BD69-088FE921EB56.webp 55.34 kB · 4 downloads

Maybe, but even those weren’t anything special for the vast majority of the UK.

Still time for upgrades though. But the Met Office don’t think there will be anything substantial this week.

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Biggin Rising Star

Biggin

Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
Posted
17 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

The fax for midday tomorrow

fax36s.thumb.gif.7e0b67eeba4824031b472d5240c04092.gif

Signs of activity around the Uk with those fronts and trough lines.Tricky to forecast localise conditions though taking into account precipitation intensity,temperature through the layers. Elevation could well be a factor for snow as well as coastal influences etc etc.

Interesting setup though and often radar watching on the day is the best way to monitor movements of these features.

Showers coming in from the North sea.  That could turn into a Wash Streamer or even better for me  a Thames Streamer

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Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
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Posted

Best chance for me to see some early winter snow for a good few years over the next few days. We’ve all got our own benchmarks, but a 5 minute backedge flurry before the year’s out and I’ll be a happy chappy. Partly because this is likely to be jus the starter course of winter...

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Biggin Rising Star

Biggin

Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
Posted
26 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

UKV 12z shows a slight eastward shift compared to its 9z run, slight uptick in intensity too.

4z.thumb.png.153911d34e998b11d2701530162d6074.png8z.thumb.png.dacc72316b1a4fdb9f91fe25a07564a2.png10z.thumb.png.7b4ee9f627e601938858556b1f3587a5.png

 

The latter one on the right intensifies the showers off the North Sea into the SE  would like to see the one after that. Streamer time ?

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radiohead Experienced

radiohead

Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland
Posted
11 minutes ago, MKN said:

Icon similar amounts wrt precip as ukv. This is going to be extremely localised and a dusting to a few cms at best unfortunately. 

iconeu_uk1-1-20-0.png

Indeed, south the Scotland, the actual snow levels on the ICON are mainly 1-2cm and in very limited spots... 

 

I think we need to look further ahead for anything significant.

 

spacer.png

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted
19 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Sorry ^ I didnt mean to lol

Nah, it’s cool  A new one was needed to be fair ☺️

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ALL ABOARD Rising Star

ALL ABOARD

Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
Posted

Big changes on the icon.. 

iconnh-0-180.thumb.png.7042a1e6ca89d78f6ccb15b223b74234.png

 

I think the models have had thier 'return to climatology day'. 

There's only one way that high is going from there. 

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
3 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Big changes on the icon.. 

iconnh-0-180.thumb.png.7042a1e6ca89d78f6ccb15b223b74234.png

 

I think the models have had thier 'return to climatology day'. 

There's only one way that high is going from there. 

If gfs shows that am sure a lot of peeps will be happy in this forum!!

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chicken soup Aficionado

chicken soup

Posted
  • Location: blackburn
  • Weather Preferences: heavy snow/ heatwaves
  • Location: blackburn
Posted
37 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

UKV 12z shows a slight eastward shift compared to its 9z run, slight uptick in intensity too.

4z.thumb.png.153911d34e998b11d2701530162d6074.png8z.thumb.png.dacc72316b1a4fdb9f91fe25a07564a2.png10z.thumb.png.7b4ee9f627e601938858556b1f3587a5.png

 

Hope thats wrong.. Looks pitifully poor. 

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
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Posted

With the rest of the 12z about to come out, I would suggest that this is a pretty good benchmark going forward into the new year.

image.thumb.png.b1d98e3c9914be32c7b713b516deab27.png
 

Cold at the surface with a cold and showery easterly developing at the ridge topples over the north of the country. As others have said there is no sign of the beast yet, but the conditions will be conductive over the forecast period for snow to be possible in most parts of the U.K.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted (edited)

Decent end to the Icon...looks to me like if it were to run another day or 2,we could be importing colder 850s..And with Low Heights to the South,that risk of wintryness remains there. Also a good Exeter update...significant snow risk for High Ground and even other areas away from coasts...and it remains cold..good start to the New Year...im as happy as a pig in dung.

icon-0-180.png

icon-1-180.png

Edited by MATTWOLVES
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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
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Posted

ICON 12z showing a number of more widespread snow events this Thursday & Friday.

399046083_Thurs10am.thumb.png.ca04d1d9e5d4d6185f1e9d4a484f353e.png176728207_Thurs1pm.thumb.png.6cd9a0f4acd507d5744dbcedb285be39.png2106531009_Fri4am.thumb.png.3fc940ed9ed60527c76dd4cc55ff4ec3.png364412470_Fri10am.thumb.png.aca02ff75bff021cb51e8945d5687e9a.png401718835_Fri1pm.thumb.png.b9f1e5dd13af693d161200052eab5501.png

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
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Posted

ARPEGE 12Z is out in "France" view - on the past few runs it's been playing with the idea of more substantial snow in the SE on Monday night, and the idea has reappeared on this runScreenshot_20201227-155527.thumb.png.40fa30de9bb33a12ee1ba9bcc901d1e8.png

It's not making much of tomorrow morning's snow opportunities away from high ground in the west.

 

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
25 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

No convergence. Air mass is same throughout.

I take it you have changed your mind from 4hrs ago when you thought this would be a significant event

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