Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

15 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:

As there is much talk of a 'wish bone' effect Thurs as the cold front moves down, being towards the coast maybe advantageous?

Looks like the pub run is showing signs of the weekend being very 'interesting' for our region snow wise  

[Wold Topper]

12 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

Looks like the pub run is showing signs of the weekend being very 'interesting' for our region snow wise  

Just had a quick catch up, yes, potentially very interesting indeed, some fun times ahead 🌨️

[Cold Winter]

18z op and control pulling in an easterly over the weekend into next week. A pub run special or is it onto something? I’d definitely take it!  

[Wold Topper]

4 minutes ago, Cold Winter said:

18z op and control pulling in an easterly over the weekend into next week. A pub run special or is it onto something? I’d definitely take it!  

If that easterly comes off, we could be right in the firing line in our neck of the woods, or has the pub run had one to many?! regardless this is fascinating 🌨

[Cold Winter]

1 minute ago, Wold Topper said:

If that easterly comes off, we could be right in the firing line in our neck of the woods, or has the pub run had one to many?! regardless this is fascinating 🌨

We’ve been in too many similar situations before and got burnt but it’s interesting all the same. If it’s still there in the morning and other models are joining in then I’ll start taking it more seriously! 

[Wold Topper]

11 minutes ago, Cold Winter said:

We’ve been in too many similar situations before and got burnt but it’s interesting all the same. If it’s still there in the morning and other models are joining in then I’ll start taking it more seriously! 

Agreed, more model watching required, but this is getting close and will soon be within the reliable, what could possibly go wrong

Edited December 5, 2022 by Wold Topper

[summer blizzard]

Wait, easterly this weekend?

[Lincstim]

23:39 attempting to sleep and I've just been disturbed by a flock of geese flying over... 

 

 

 

Surely escaping the incoming freeze  

 

And feet of snow  

Edited December 6, 2022 by reef
Post was extremely large!

[Mark Bayley]

My first winter back in the North, and what a start! Still, if taken at face value I'd have been better off in the south going be the latest GFS and ECM  

In my experience these systems tend to trend south closer to the time, so we shall see what happens. Chance of a dusting or more on Thursday before turning much colder. If we can trend easterly like last nights 18z then perhaps some reasonable snow chances into next week. Otherwise whilst it looks mostly dry on current runs I'd not rule out surprises. I can count many times when i was nearer Sheffield when models looked dry but closer to the time there where some 'surprises'. Let's see how it evolves over the next couple of days

I'm now in Roundhay at about 135m asl. Hoping snow chances will be better than nearer to Worksop  (though 2010 was pretty epic for us!). I suppose a challenge for Leeds is the Pennines and North York moors sucking the life out of any precipitation!

Edited December 6, 2022 by Mark Bayley

[Cold Winter]

Over the next few days it looks as though the wind direction will keep any shower activity at the coast. Thursday morning could see a spell of snow moving down from the north, but still very uncertain as to how heavy this will be - possibly just light or may not occur at all. The latest ICON highlights this and the GFS has been modelling it too. With frozen ground after a frost on Wednesday night anything that falls onto the right surface should settle, at least for a time.

What we do know is that temperatures after today will struggle to get above 2-3c and there’ll be some harsh frosts away from the coast.

 

Edited December 6, 2022 by Cold Winter

[mike57]

11 hours ago, sorepaw1 said:

You might get lucky Mike so close to the coast. 

Also helped by the 400ft + cliffs which amplify any lift when winds are on shore, anything from NW to NE will be onshore. Being on that little nose of land that sticks into the North Sea and having a small amount of elevation means our weather can be quite different to areas inland and further south at the coast. BBC forecasts are notoriously hopeless here, if I need to know what the weather is going to do then I study the data and forecasts here and apply a 'Bempton effect' if its appropriate. Thats how I came to Netweather in the first place.

[Empire Of Snow]

1 hour ago, Mark Bayley said:

My first winter back in the North, and what a start! Still, if taken at face value I'd have been better off in the south going be the latest GFS and ECM  

In my experience these systems tend to trend south closer to the time, so we shall see what happens. Chance of a dusting or more on Thursday before turning much colder. If we can trend easterly like last nights 18z then perhaps some reasonable snow chances into next week. Otherwise whilst it looks mostly dry on current runs I'd not rule out surprises. I can count many times when i was nearer Sheffield when models looked dry but closer to the time there where some 'surprises'. Let's see how it evolves over the next couple of days

I'm now in Roundhay at about 135m asl. Hoping snow chances will be better than nearer to Worksop  (though 2010 was pretty epic for us!). I suppose a challenge for Leeds is the Pennines and North York moors sucking the life out of any precipitation!

I'm really struggling to understand last night's and this morning's tsunami of excitement in the MOD thread. Is it because of some runs that show a potential snow storm deep in FI in SE? Yes it will be cold or very cold with some snow chances here and there but I can't see anything extraordinary. It's December and we'll have 0m uppers at around 1-2c or maybe lower in places. And nope, I can't see any Buffalo snowmaggedon over here. 

[Cold Winter]

3 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

I'm really struggling to understand last night's and this morning's tsunami of excitement in the MOD thread. Is it because of some runs that show a potential snow storm deep in FI in SE? Yes it will be cold or very cold with some snow chances here and there but I can't see anything extraordinary. It's December and we'll have 0m uppers at around 1-2c or maybe lower in places. And nope, I can't see any Buffalo snowmaggedon over here. 

Yeah it’s always about day 5+ over there, and often much further ahead. No one seems to be talking about the potential snow risks over the next couple of days… probably because it doesn’t look likely to affect London and the Midlands 

[Empire Of Snow]

6 minutes ago, Cold Winter said:

Yeah it’s always about day 5+ over there, and often much further ahead. No one seems to be talking about the potential snow risks over the next couple of days… probably because it doesn’t look likely to affect London and the Midlands 

As it stands, snow risk for inland places across the country is at 1% for the next 5-6 days. Unless I forgot how to read charts after decades doing it. 

[Cold Winter]

3 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

As it stands, snow risk for inland places across the country is at 1% for the next 5-6 days. Unless I forgot how to read charts after decades doing it. 

Northern Scotland going to get frequent snow showers (not unusual)

Coastal areas likely to get showers turning increasingly wintry

ICON 6z modelling this for Thursday 

[Adam lufc]

No to the above empire of snow.

Gfs 18z last night had me soo excited. It showed huge amounts of snow this weekend and in the reliable! We have to try and get excited about something as we never normally have the chance!!

[Sara_south_yorks]

Back for another winter and im already hooked! Although the mod thread is becoming slightly misleading with the southern bias to posts...think i will stick with just checking in on here. 

Fingers crossed for some snow chances over the next week though. 

[ryanoroo]

need to surface from the MOD thread briefly so regain some sort of normality! hahaha... The regional threads seem to have changed format slightly to what I remember?

Anyway here is my EXTENSIVE list of everything we can be 100% sure of over the next week or so:

1. Its going to get cold... but yeah like properly cold... Winter cold!... as we start... winter...

...

...

Errrrm I think that's about it really!...

... I (semi)jest, but at the same time it feels a bit like after nearly 2 weeks of following the MOD posts, that's about the only thing we can say for sure!...

Keeping everything crossed for some surprises falling from the skies over the next week whilst we are in this colder spell ... you never know!... well... not 100% anyway!

[Empire Of Snow]

Anyone that is looking beyond 96h must know there's a big chance of disappointment. It's ok to discuss some potential outcomes in FI but a lot of people are getting too excited in the MOD thread. 

The major issue is that we don't have a proper meteorological cause to bring ppn. The "get the cold first and snow will follow" is a myth. North Sea can't produce lake effect snow without something triggering it. If some people are happy with just a few showers it's alright. Troughs or small disturbances rarely produce significant snowfall and they need to be very organised and persistent to do so. 

That said, what we have in front of us is just a seasonal prolonged cold spell. There's more chance of freezing spray fog inland than snow. 

[Empire Of Snow]

Oh I forgot also: There is now around 60% possibility for a trough on Thursday midday. It's difficult to pinpoint so I guess it's going to be radar watching. Most possible scenario is the trough to move down to N. Yorkshire but it can still go further west. 

[RebsAbbo]

@Wold Topper….is it too late now? i.e. too damn cold to wash the cars anyway ???

Yorkshire Water - Is there a hosepipe ban?

WWW.YORKSHIREWATER.COM

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Providing essential water and waste water services is only the start of what we do. Find out where we are now and where we plan to be in 25 years time. No, the hosepipe ban ended...

 

[Wold Topper]

7 minutes ago, RebsAbbo said:

@Wold Topper….is it too late now? i.e. too damn cold to wash the cars anyway ???

Yorkshire Water - Is there a hosepipe ban?

WWW.YORKSHIREWATER.COM

---

Providing essential water and waste water services is only the start of what we do. Find out where we are now and where we plan to be in 25 years time. No, the hosepipe ban ended...

 

Saw that earlier, pressure washer staying firmly in shed 🌨

[NorthYorksWeather]

Bit of sleet on North York Moors today above 400m.

These showers should be turning to snow up there as the night progresses, back home near Malton its rain showers at 3.5c.

[NorthYorksWeather]

NMM showing wintry showers moving down across eastern areas tomorrow morning, probably a mix of rain sleet at low levels/coast but inland with a bit of elevation might see some surprises.

 

 

[winterof79]

A nice slack w/nw for the weekend.Arpege backing this up too.Thinking streamers could drop a few inches.Looking likely to set up most of Saturday from the Irish sea.Western areas of Yorkshire more prone.

 

 

Edited December 6, 2022 by winterof79